Tag: best NBA picks

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NBA Playoffs Free Bet | May 7th 2024

ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET

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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.

We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.

Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.

Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.  

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NBA Free Bet | March 12th 2024 | Bucks vs Kings prediction

ASA Free NBA bet on OVER 236 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

These two teams met in Milwaukee in mid-January and produced 285 total points in OT. The oddsmakers had set an O/U number of 247 on that game. Both teams shot 52% overall, and 41% (Kings), 47% (Bucks) from beyond the arc which are also well above season each team’s season average.

That seems to be a reoccurring trend when these two teams get together as they’ve gone Over the Total in 10 straight meetings. The last seven meetings have averaged 257 points scored.

The Bucks defense has certainly improved since Doc Rivers took over but they have given up 125, 123 and 117 in their last three games against similar offensive teams to the Kings. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.195PPP and play at the 4th highest rate in the league.

The Kings are 12th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game and have the 13th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.175-points per possession. Milwaukee is the 8th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 37.6% and the Kings are last in defending the 3PT line allowing 39.8%. The Kings rely on volume shooting to score with the 5th highest FG attempts per game and the 10th best shooting percentage. Granted the NBA has been on an Under trend but we like Over here and today’s NBA free bet. Bucks vs Kings prediction for Tuesday, March 12th.

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NBA Free Bet | 3-6-24 | Bucks vs Warriors

ASA FREE play on Golden State Warriors -4 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET

**ONLY IF GIANNIS IS OUT TONIGHT** The NBA free pick today. This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6 straight wins and a defense that ranks best in the NBA over that time period.

As a Bucks fan I temper my enthusiasm though as two of those wins came against Charlotte, one versus a struggling Bulls team and one against Philly who had injury issues. The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Boston on Sunday in a National TV showing.

I like Golden State to bounce back with a concentrated effort at home. The home team in this series has dominated with 6-straight wins including the Bucks getting a W on Jan 13th at home 129-118. You might be a bit surprised to know that the Bucks are 3-5 ATS as an underdog with a negative average differential in those games of -10.5PPG. G

olden State has dominated Eastern Conference teams this season with a 16-7 SU record and a +/- of +3.3PPG. Given the circumstances we like the Warriors minus the short number as a NBA free bet today.

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NBA Free Pick Today | Celtics vs Nets | 2-13-24

ASA’s Free NBA play on OVER 228.5 Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET

Tonight, we will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference showdown. The Celtics are going to get to 120+ in this game as they average that number on the season.

Boston is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.213-points per possession and has the 6th best Effective Field Goal percentage at 56.8%. The C’s should have an easy go of it on the offensive end of the court against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency and allows 115.4PPG. The Nets defense has been even worse in their last five games allowing 1.228-points per possession and 120.6PPG.

Boston is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the league and should exploit a Brooklyn D that ranks 24th in opponents 3PT% allowed. We will need Brooklyn to score in this game but if they get to around 110 this game should go Over rather easily. The Nets average 113.9PPG on the season and do it with volume shooting as they rank 4th in FG attempts per game. We expect a total of 230 or more points. NBA free pick today is on this game Over the total.

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NBA Free Bets for January 25th by ASA

ASA has you covered with some free action in the NBA

ASA play on: Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 10PM ET

The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number.

ASA Team Total UNDER 124.5 POINTS – GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The Warriors have put up some big scores in recent games, but they came against bad defensive teams. Today they face the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the Grizzlies who allow just 1.099-points per possession. The Warriors have faced some similar defensive teams in recent games (Cavs, Celtics, Bulls and Suns) and failed to top 120 points in any of those games. Golden State has scored more than 124 points against the Grizzlies just 1 time in their last 10 meetings. Our math model is projecting 114.6-total points for the Warriors.

ASA Player Prop OVER 25.5 POINTS+REBOUNS – Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trailblazers

Nurkic is inline for a big game tonight against a Jazz team that allows the 5th most points to centers and the 3rd most rebounds. In two meetings this season versus the Jazz he has totaled 25 and 29 points+rebounds respectively. In his last ten games he is averaging 25Pts+Rebs and is coming off a 36 total night against the Spurs.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors

VanVleet is averaging 19.1PPG on the season but in his last ten games that number has jumped up to 21.3PPG. The same can be said about is Assists statistics. For the year he is averaging 6.3APG but in his last ten games that average is 6.9APG. The Kings allow the 6th most points (24.6PPG) in the NBA to PG’s and 7.9-assists per game. There is a good chance VanVleet scores enough to get Over this number, the assists will just make it that much easier.