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Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024

ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Indy’s defense is a wreck right now.  They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG.  They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers ran the ball 55 times with back up QB Willis getting his first start and vs Chicago who ranks 29th in YPP offense.  Even in those games GB tallied 383 yards and Chicago 395 yards so they both had opportunities to put up more points. 

Indy ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to average 38 yards per drive.  The Titans have some offensive confidence coming into this game after putting up 31 points last week (their season high) vs Miami and QB Levis, who was banged up in the game, looks like he’ll be fine here. 

Tennessee’s defense is highly rated, however they’ve faced 4 offenses (Miami, NYJ, and Chicago) who rank in the bottom 7 in YPP.  The one decent offense they’ve faced was Green Bay who put up 30 points on them. 

Indy’s offense averages 6.2 YPP (5th in the NFL) and 24 PPG.  We would expect the Colts to have success here offensively.  Both QB’s should have time to operate in the pocket as these defenses rank 29th and 30th in pressure rate. 

These 2 AFC South rivals have met 10 times since the start of the 2019 season and they’ve averaged 48 total points in those games.  We like the Over on Sunday as our free NFL bet. 

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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

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Miami Fl vs. California Prediction | Free Bet | 10-5-24

College Football Betting Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs. California Golden Bears Prediction

Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024Time: 10:30 PM PTLocation: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA 

Overview by ASA:

The Miami Hurricanes, riding a wave of offensive prowess and a 5-0 record, venture to the West Coast to face the California Golden Bears, who stand at 3-1 with a defense that has been the backbone of their season. This matchup pits Miami’s high-octane offense against Cal’s stingy defense, setting the stage for what could be one of the most intriguing games of Week 6.

Miami Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower:

Miami has been nothing short of explosive, averaging 49.4 points per game, ranking them second in the nation. Quarterback Cam Ward has been phenomenal, throwing for over 300 yards in every game this season, supported by a dynamic ground game led by backs like Damien Martinez. The Hurricanes’ ability to score from anywhere on the field has been their hallmark, often putting games out of reach early.

California’s Defensive Wall:

On the flip side, California’s defense has been the talk of the town, limiting opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, showcasing a unit that’s disciplined, aggressive, and very much in the conversation for elite defensive status. This defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, a testament to their ability to stifle offenses and keep games close.

The Betting Angle:

Spread: The line has been set at Miami -10.5, which reflects the bookmakers’ confidence in Miami’s offensive dominance. However, taking Cal +10.5 might be the smarter play here. The Golden Bears’ defense hasn’t faced an offense like Miami’s, but conversely, Miami hasn’t been challenged by a defense as formidable as Cal’s all season.

Why Bet on Cal +10.5:

Defensive Matchup: Cal’s defense will be the best Miami has seen this season. Their ability to generate turnovers (10 INTs, leading the nation) and their prowess against the run (3.2 yards per rush allowed) could keep Miami’s scoring under control more than expected.

Home Advantage: Playing in Berkeley, with its historically tough environment for visiting teams, could play into Cal’s hands. Cal as a home dog dating back to 2016 is 16-7-1 ATS, nearly 70% cover rate. Conversely, the Hurricanes are 9-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2018..

Offensive Awakening: Cal’s 9-points against Florida State in their last game is very misleading as the Bears put up 410 total yards of offense at 5.5 yards per play. Prior to the FSU game the Bears had scored 31,21 and 31-points.

Prediction:

While Miami’s high-powered offense could still put points on the board, expect Cal’s defense to make significant stands, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game than anticipated. If Cal’s offense finds any rhythm, covering the spread becomes increasingly likely. Coming off a loss two weeks ago and then a bye week, we like the Bears and the double-digits.

FREE Betting Pick: California +10.5.

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RAVENS vs COWBOYS PREDICTION | FREE BET | 9-22-24

NFL FREE BET – Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction, Sunday Sept 22nd 2024

The Ravens were many experts picks and one of the betting favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season. With a loss on Sunday the Ravens would fall to 0-3 SU and be in serious trouble of missing the postseason.

Dallas won their opener in Cleveland against a bad Browns team then were destroyed last week at home by the Saints. New Orleans ran through the Dallas D for 190 yards while Saints QB Carr dissected them through the air with 11/16 passing for 242 yards.

Baltimore will pound the football against the soft interior of the Cowboys defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run in 2023. Baltimore led the league in rushing yards a year ago at 156.4 at 5.0YPR. This season the Ravens are averaging 5.7YPR (3rd) and 168 rushing yards per game. The Ravens have outgained their first two opponents by over 200+ total yards and have the 11th best yards per play differential in the NFL.

In comparison, the Cowboys have a negative yards per play differential of -0.4. The Ravens defense has allowed less than a 50-yards rushing average in their first two games and will bottle up a Cowboys run game that averages just 85RYPG.

The Cowboys will want to throw often in this game, but the Ravens pass defense allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt last season and ranked 8th in passing yards allowed p/game.

Baltimore clearly has the coaching advantage and Lamar Jackson has owned the NFC with a 18-1 ATS run. Back the desperate team here.

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