Tag: best cfb picks

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Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction | Nov 16 2024 | Free bet

ASA free bet on Cincinnati +7.5 at Iowa State – 8pm ET

The Bearcats are the play here as the Cyclones have been exposed in their last two games. After starting the season 7-0, Iowa State has come back to Earth with a pair of losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. The Cyclones have a Yards Per Play differential in their last 3 games is a negative -0.5YPP and the defense has looked suspect in two straight games. Last week the Jayhawks rushed for over 220 yards against ISU, which plays into the Bearcats strength offensively. Cincinnati rushes for 170ypg and 4.8 yards per carry which both rank top 55 in the country. The Bearcats have a complimentary passing attack that averages 268ypg (31st) with QB’s completing 66.2% of their attempts (22nd). Cincinnati is coming off a loss last week to West Virginia, a game in which they dominated statistically with 24 FD’s to 10, a +9 minute TOP advantage and a 436 to 248 yardage advantage. We recommend a small play the Bearcats plus the points.

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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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Miami Fl vs. California Prediction | Free Bet | 10-5-24

College Football Betting Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs. California Golden Bears Prediction

Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024Time: 10:30 PM PTLocation: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA 

Overview by ASA:

The Miami Hurricanes, riding a wave of offensive prowess and a 5-0 record, venture to the West Coast to face the California Golden Bears, who stand at 3-1 with a defense that has been the backbone of their season. This matchup pits Miami’s high-octane offense against Cal’s stingy defense, setting the stage for what could be one of the most intriguing games of Week 6.

Miami Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower:

Miami has been nothing short of explosive, averaging 49.4 points per game, ranking them second in the nation. Quarterback Cam Ward has been phenomenal, throwing for over 300 yards in every game this season, supported by a dynamic ground game led by backs like Damien Martinez. The Hurricanes’ ability to score from anywhere on the field has been their hallmark, often putting games out of reach early.

California’s Defensive Wall:

On the flip side, California’s defense has been the talk of the town, limiting opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, showcasing a unit that’s disciplined, aggressive, and very much in the conversation for elite defensive status. This defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, a testament to their ability to stifle offenses and keep games close.

The Betting Angle:

Spread: The line has been set at Miami -10.5, which reflects the bookmakers’ confidence in Miami’s offensive dominance. However, taking Cal +10.5 might be the smarter play here. The Golden Bears’ defense hasn’t faced an offense like Miami’s, but conversely, Miami hasn’t been challenged by a defense as formidable as Cal’s all season.

Why Bet on Cal +10.5:

Defensive Matchup: Cal’s defense will be the best Miami has seen this season. Their ability to generate turnovers (10 INTs, leading the nation) and their prowess against the run (3.2 yards per rush allowed) could keep Miami’s scoring under control more than expected.

Home Advantage: Playing in Berkeley, with its historically tough environment for visiting teams, could play into Cal’s hands. Cal as a home dog dating back to 2016 is 16-7-1 ATS, nearly 70% cover rate. Conversely, the Hurricanes are 9-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2018..

Offensive Awakening: Cal’s 9-points against Florida State in their last game is very misleading as the Bears put up 410 total yards of offense at 5.5 yards per play. Prior to the FSU game the Bears had scored 31,21 and 31-points.

Prediction:

While Miami’s high-powered offense could still put points on the board, expect Cal’s defense to make significant stands, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game than anticipated. If Cal’s offense finds any rhythm, covering the spread becomes increasingly likely. Coming off a loss two weeks ago and then a bye week, we like the Bears and the double-digits.

FREE Betting Pick: California +10.5.

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