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ASA | BIG TEN FOOTBALL | Sept 26th, 2015

ASA’s BIG TEN REPORT – for games on September 27th

**Current Lines listed are as of Wednesday**

WESTERN MICHIGAN @ OHIO STATE – Current Line OHIO STATE (-31) – Opening Line (-27)

OSU’s offense is in a rut right now.  After racking up 45 PPG on 512 YPG a year ago, they are averaging 33 PPG on “just” 411 YPG.  Both of those marks for this year rank them out of the top 30 nationally and the scoring numbers include 2 defensive TD’s.  After struggling with Northern Illinois last week head coach Urban Meyer said he doesn’t know who he’ll start at QB but neither Jones nor Barrett are playing well right now.  With 4 skill players that are all Heisman type candidates, what could possibly be the problem?  Possibly the departure of OC Tom Herman who is now the head coach at Houston.  He was a fantastic play caller and had a knack for putting his talented players in a position to do well.  Look what he’s doing at Houston.  The Cougs are averaging 43 PPG on 541 YPG including an upset win @ Louisville.  New OC Ed Warriner has helped Herman the last few years but his experience as “the man” calling the plays is limited to two years with Army in the 1998 & 1999 and two years with Kansas in 2007 & 2008.  Western Michigan is one of the MAC favorites along with last week’s opponent Northern Illinois.  The Broncos have an experienced & talented offense that hung with Michigan State a few weeks ago (lost by 13) so they might give the Bucks some problems if they don’t figure out their offensive struggles this week.

HAWAII @ WISCONSIN – Current Line WISCONSIN (-25) – Opening Line (-27)

We saw Wisconsin open -27 here and drop quickly.  Wisconsin struggled a bit offensively last week against Troy.  The Badgers started the game simply trying to enforce their will on Troy and pound them at the line of scrimmage running the ball.  With a fairly inexperienced OLine and top RB Corey Clement out, they will struggle to operate their offense in that manner this year.  At least until Clement returns and their offensive front starts coming together.  Clement’s back-ups are nowhere near his level right now.   In fact, their starter at tailback right now is Dare Ogunbowale and he is a walk on.  After having to punt on 3 of their first 4 drives, head coach Paul Chryst opened up the passing attack and QB Stave looked very good again (13 of 17 for 202 yards and a TD).  Once he did that, Wisconsin scored TD’s on 3 of their next 5 drives.  Unless Clement is absolutely set at 100%, we doubt he’ll see action again this week vs Hawaii as the Badgers open Big Ten play the following week vs Iowa.  They will need Clement for that one.  The Rainbows are 1-2 on the year but their defense has really impressed us.  In their first two games vs Colorado & Ohio State they limited those opponents to just 4.2 and 4.6 yards per play respectively.  Last week they seemed to let down a bit defensively allowing Cal Davis to score 27 points on 5.6 YPP, but their first two outings were ones to make note of.  Offensively Hawaii has struggled.  They did score 47 last week vs UC Davis but averaged just 14 PPG in their first 2 games.  That might be a problem on Saturday against a Wisconsin defense that has allowed just 3 total points over their last 2 games.   The Bows are 1-18 SU on the road in head coach Norm Chow’s tenure.

BYU @ MICHIGAN – Current Line MICHIGAN (-5.5) – Opening Line (-4.5)

Our question with this matchup is what will BYU have left in the tank?  They’ve already played the 3rd most difficult schedule to date according to Jeff Sagarin and that’s BEFORE they travel to Michigan on Saturday.  They opened the season with the infamous hail-mary win @ Nebraska then came home and basically beat Boise in a similar way.  Then last week they traveled to UCLA and had the Bruins on the ropes.  The Bruins first lead of the game came with just over 3:00 remaining when they scored a TD to take a 24-23 lead.  BYU was driving in UCLA territory for a potential game winning FG attempt when their young QB Tanner Mangum threw an interception ending the game.  The Cougs outgained UCLA by a few yards in the game, however they also ran a whopping 89 plays to just 61 for UCLA.  Now they have to travel again this Saturday which will be their 3rd time in 4 weeks.  Michigan’s offense has been somewhat pedestrian but their defense has been outstanding.  The Wolves currently rank 87th in total offense putting up 379 YPG but they are 7th in total defense allowing just 236 YPG.  The Michigan defense has allowed only 4 offensive TD’s in 3 games.  After struggling to run the ball against Utah in their season opener, Michigan has made a concerted effort to pound their last two opponents on the ground with 87 rushing attempts in those two games combined.  We’ll see if that continues on Saturday against a BYU defense that was really good stopping the run in their first two games before UCLA lit them up for 296 yards rushing on 7.8 YPC last week.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN STATE – Current Line MICHIGAN STATE (-27) – Opening Line (-29)

Sparty struggled a bit with Air Force last week as we expected.  We were on AF at +26 early in the week and the game played out almost as we envisioned.  MSU was obviously flat off their epic home win over Oregon a week earlier and it showed.  If it wasn’t for a Spartan pick 6 in the first half with BYU driving along with 3 total turnovers by the Falcons, this game could have been tight down the stretch.  The Falcons actually outgained MSU by 104 total yards and dominated on the ground rolling up 279 yards rushing to only 77 for the Green & White.  For the game AF averaged 7.1 per offensive play while MSU averaged only 4.9.  Air Force lost by just 2 TD’s in a game that should have been much closer and a strong case could be made that AF could have and should have come out on top if not for the turnover disparity.  Despite the poor offensive showing, Michigan State still managed to put up 30+ points and that was the 12th time in the last 13 games they’ve done that.  Defensively they look a bit down from prior editions as 2 of their first 3 opponents have put up 400+ yards on them.  The only one that didn’t was Western Michigan and they had 383.  Central Michigan has already played two Power 5 opponents and showed themselves well losing to Oklahoma State 24-13 and Syracuse 30-27 (in OT).  The Chippewas dominated the stats last week vs Syracuse with a big edge in first downs (30 to 11), total yardage (520 to 326), total offensive plays (91 to 47), and a 2 to 1 time of possession advantage.  The Orange did lose their QB to an injury in the 2nd quarter and he did not return.  He was their back up as they had already lost their starter for the year so Cuse was down to their 3rd stringer.  Even despite all of that, CMU came up short in OT.

SOUTHERN MISS @ NEBRASKA – Current Line NEBRASKA (-22) – Opening Line (-23.5)

We had USM pegged as one of the more improved teams coming into this year and we were dead on.  Despite their 3-9 record in 2014, they were competitive in a number of games and they brought back one of the more experienced offenses in Conference USA.  After playing Mississippi State very tough in week 1, the Golden Eagles have won each of their last 2 games.  They were @ Texas State last week and won in a shootout 56-50.  Since playing a competitive game vs Miss St, the Eagles have rolled up 108 points and 1,127 yards in their last 2.  It will interesting to see Nebraska’s mental state coming into this one.  They’ve been through a full season worth of emotion in just a few weeks.  They opened the year with their hail-mary loss to BYU and then came from way behind last week @ Miami FL to tie it late only to lose in OT.  They could go two ways this weekend.  They could be spent and come out flat or rally behind new coach Mike Riley and come out with an “us against the world” mentality on Saturday.  The latter would be tough with what they’ve been through so far and with the Big Ten slate starting next week.  While the offense has been solid, the defense which was torched at the end of last year continues to struggle.  They rank 94th in total defense giving up 451 YPG on 6.1 YPP.  The only team in the Big Ten that is worse than the Huskers in those 2 categories is Indiana.  Now they face an offense that is experienced (9 upperclassmen starters) and seems to be clicking.  If Nebraska doesn’t come to play they could be in for a fight here.

SAN DIEGO STATE @ PENN STATE – Current Line PENN STATE (-15) – Opening Line (-10)

The key question here for us is has the Penn State offense (& offensive line) started to figure it out or was it the competition?  After looking atrocious in their first game vs Temple (3.4 YPP) they have looked better the last 2 weeks.  They put up 4.9 YPP on a retooled Buffalo defense working under a new coach.  That same Buffalo defense was ripped for 490 yards @ FAU last weekend.  The Nits game last week was impressive as they rolled the Rutgers defense for 7.8 YPP including 330 yards rushing.  Albeit a Rutgers program in a bit of disarray with their coach and a number of key players suspended.  After allowing QB Hackenberg to get sacked 10 times in their opener vs Temple, they have kept him upright the last two games with zero sacks allowed.  They host a struggling San Diego State team this Saturday.  After beating FCS San Diego in week 1, the Aztecs were trounced @ Cal and then followed that up with an OT loss at home last week to South Alabama.  That’s the same South Alabama team that was crushed at Nebraska 48-9 just one week earlier.  Last week’s loss for San Diego State was no fluke as they were outgained 511 to 305 by a South Alabama team that was in their 2nd of back to back long road trips.  PSU’s offense may look better again this week but with games vs Army and Indiana the two weeks following, we may not know if they’ve really improved until mid-October.

BOWLING GREEN @ PURDUE – Current Line BOWLING GREEN (-1.5) – Opening Line PURDUE (-2.5)

This one opened with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite and quickly swung to Bowling Green as the road chalk.  The Falcons are wading in unchartered waters here as they have NEVER been favored one the road vs a Big Ten team.  In fact, the only Power 5 team they have visited and been favored was Kansas back in 2002.  The Boilers, on the flip side, have only been a home dog to a MAC team twice since 1980.  They were a 4-point dog to Northern Illinois in 2013 & a 16-point dog to Ball State in 2010.  How did they fare in those two games?  They were blown out by NIU but upset Ball State.  The Boilers sit at 1-2 and they really need this win or they might be staring 1-6 in the face.  After this game Purdue plays @ Michigan State, home vs Minnesota, and @ Wisconsin.  Purdue looked solid (minus the turnovers) in their week 1 game @ Marshall, a game they should have won.  They followed that up with an easy win vs Indiana State and then last week they hit a wall called Virginia Tech.  The Hokies rolled to a 51-24 win but 14 of their points came on a blocked punt & a fumble return.  Miscues have been a huge problem for PU as they’ve turned the ball over 9 times in 3 games.  Because of that, starting QB Appleby will take a seat this Saturday in favor of freshman David Blough.  It’s the third straight year that head coach Darrell Hazel has changed starting QB’s in either September or October.  Bowling Green has played a very tough slate losing @ Tennessee, winning big @ Maryland, and then losing a tight one to Memphis in their home opener last weekend.  This team can score.  Despite playing a fairly tough schedule, they are averaging 40 PPG on 609 YPG.  The only team that is averaging more yards per game than BG is Baylor.  Purdue’s new QB better be able to put points on the board on Saturday.

KANSAS @ RUTGERS – Current Line RUTGERS (-12.5) – Opening Line (-13)

Wow what a stinker this game is.  Rutgers has half their team and their coach suspended (not quite that bad but bad enough) and Kansas looks like they have no chance to exceed their year win total of 1.5.  The Knights mental state has to be shot.  At least that’s what it looked like last week when a very average (probably below average) Penn State offense rolled them for 330 yards on the ground and 7.8 YPP.  That’s a PSU offense that hadn’t topped 5 YPP in either of their first two games.  Are the Jayhawks a team that can take advantage of the chaos that is going on in Piscataway?  Probably not.  Kansas is already 0-2 with home losses to South Dakota State & Memphis.  They’ve given up 96 points in those two games along with 1,114 yards.  Yes that is in just two games!  Coming into the season, Kansas returned just 91 total career starts on their entire team and 12 players started their first game ever when they faced South Dakota State.  Now those inexperienced players are making their first road start.  The positive is that KU has had two weeks to get ready for this game with a bye last week.  Kansas has lost 30 STRAIGHT road games and they are just 7-23 ATS in those games.  These teams have combined to play 5 games this season and the only win came against Norfolk State.  That tells you enough about this match up.

INDIANA @ WAKE FOREST – Current Line INDIANA (-3.5) – Opening Line (-3.5)

WF QB Wolford left early in the game last week @ Army with an injured ankle and is doubtful here.  His replacement, freshman Kendall Hinton, was impressive with 101 yards rushing and 159 yards passing in the 17-14 road win.  Wake overcame a 3 to 0 turnover deficit to win the game.  Both of Army’s TD’s came after Wake turnovers including a 1-play 9-yard drive for one of them.  Wake is definitely a vastly improved team under 2nd year coach Dave Clawson (came over from Bowling Green).  They were 3-9 last year and they already have 2 wins this season.  Their only loss was @ Syracuse, a game in which they outgained the Orange 419 to 370.  You might not look at Wake’s rushing attack and think much as they are averaging 108 YPG on the ground.  However, that’s a drastic improvement from last year when they finished dead last in the NCAA averaging only 34 YPG on the ground!  IU’s concern continues to be their porous defense.  The Hoosiers are dead last in the Big Ten allowing 544 YPG on 7.1 YPP.  Not only are the 14th in total defense in the conference, the 13th team (Nebraska) is nearly a full 100 yards better than the Hoosier defense.  Despite that, IU is now 3-0 and with a win @ Wake they would be 4-0 for the first time in 25 years.  Indiana came from behind last week to knock off Western Kentucky 38-35.  They were down 28-17 at half but picked off WKU QB Doughty and consecutive snaps and both led to Indiana TD’s.  The Hoosiers, however, are “this close” to being 0-3 as they beat Southern Illinois by a single point, came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat FIU, and then overcame a double digit halftime deficit last week.

MARYLAND @ WEST VIRGINIA – Current Line WVU (-17) – Opening Line (-17)

WVU has dominated this rivalry as of late winning 8 of the last 9 outright.  Despite this being a big rivalry, the outcomes have been lopsided with the winner topping the loser by double digits in 17 of the last 20 meetings.  The Mountaineers have outscored their two opponents 85-17 but have yet to be tested (Georgia Southern & Liberty).  The Neers have had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week.  Maryland will be making their first road trip after beating Richmond & South Florida at home while losing to Bowling Green.  In their lone loss to BG, the game was tied at 27 with under 10:00 remaining in the game but the Falcons exploded 3 TD’s from that point on walking to a 48-27 win.  The Terps most dangerous weapon might just be punt returner William Likely.  He already has 2 punt returns for TD’s and is averaging almost 29 yards per return.  Maryland head coach Randy Edsall switched QB’s in their most recent game giving then back up Caleb Rowe the first start of his career replacing a benched Perry Hills.  Rowe put up solid stats in their 35-17 win over USF, however he has shown to be turnover prone already throwing 5 interceptions this year in just 37 pass attempts.  The West Virginia defense, who has already picked off 4 passes in two games, will try and take advantage of that on Saturday.

NORTH TEXAS @ IOWA – Current Line IOWA (-24.5) – Opening Line IOWA (-26.5)

This line opened initially at Iowa -26.5 but has come crashing down two full points to -24.5.  This is a tough spot for the Hawkeyes as they are off a huge last second win over Pitt after beating rival Iowa State the week before and they travel to Wisconsin next week.  Last week they topped the Panthers 27-24 on a 57-yard field goal as time ran out.  The Hawks came out of the physical match up a little banged up.  QB CJ Beathard took 13 direct hits from the blitz happy Panthers but came out of it just a little sore.  RB LeShun Daniels has a bad ankle and is not 100%.  Daniels and top defensive end Drew Ott (elbow injury) only practiced twice this week and they could be held out this Saturday.  North Texas coach Dan McCarney was an assistant at Iowa back in the 80’s.  He’s very familiar with the program and he and Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz are good friends.  The Mean Green are 0-2 on the year with losses to fellow Texans SMU & Rice.  McCarney was pleased with the big improvement offensively from game 1 to game 2.  The offense put up just 240 yards in their opening loss to SMU but then more than doubled that total to 478 yards last week vs Rice.  UNT was outgained by 200 yards vs SMU and cut that to just 80 yards vs Rice.  The problem has been turnovers.  The Green have a whopping 7 turnovers in their two games.  The defense is a work in progress after losing 6 starters including 2 all conference players from last year.  They are allowing 34.5 PPG after two contests.  They rank dead last in the NCAA in 3rd down defense allowing opponents to covert on almost 62% of their 3rd downs.  The only Big Ten team that UNT has played since 2000 is Indiana.  They lost 49-28 @ IU last year and actually beat the Hoosiers 24-21 back in 2011.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE @ ILLINOIS – Current Line ILLINOIS (-6.5) – Opening Line ILLINOIS (-7)

One of the top scoring offenses in the nation comes to Champaign this weekend.  MTSU is 2-1 on the season and they’ve scored at least 70 points in two of those games (averaging 51 PPG)!  However, those games were against Jackson State (FCS) & Charlotte (first year in FBS).  Their game sandwiched between those two blowout wins was a trip to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama.  The Raiders only scored 10 points in that game and lost 37-10.  Their lone TD in that game came with just 6:00 minutes remaining.  Their offensive success is not surprising as they return most of their key players from a team that put up 31 PPG and 431 YPG last year.  After ripping their first two opponents, the Illini came back to earth a bit last week as they were whipped 48-14 @ North Carolina.  The Illini defense had allowed only 3 points total in their first two games (Kent & Western Illinois) before getting shredded for 471 yards on 7.5 YPPG last week.  Illinois actually should have had a better showing on offense (just 14 points) as they missed a few FG and blew some opportunities in UNC territory.  They did put up 399 yards.  Illini head coach Bill Cubit and MTSU coach Rick Stockstill have been friends for 30 years as they were on the same staff at UCF back in 80’s.  The Blue Raiders traveled to Big Ten country last year facing Minnesota in Minneapolis.  MTSU definitely held their own losing 35-24 but outgained the Gophs by nearly 100 yards.

OHIO @ MINNESOTA – Current Line MINNESOTA (-10.5) – Opening Line (-13)

The Gopher offense has really been struggling early in the year.  They have scored a total of only 50 points in three games (16.7 PPG) ranking them dead last in the Big Ten and 123rd nationally in that category.  Starting QB Mitch Leidner has been shaky completing only 46% of his passes this season.  It got to a point in last week’s 10-7 squeaker over Kent, the Gophs had true freshman QB Demry Croft warming up and ready to replace Leidner.  Head coach Jerry Kill stuck with Leidner but has been non-committal on the QB topic this week.  On top of that, they are only averaging 142 YPG on the ground (13th in the Big Ten) after averaging 215 YPG a year ago.  RB David Cobb moving onto the NFL has really been magnified so far with this team.  To put their 10-7 win vs Kent into perspective – that same Kent team lost 52-3 to Illinois in their season opener and the Flashes have been outscored 268-6 in their previous 6 games vs Big Ten teams!  Ohio brings an impressive 3-0 record into Minnesota on Saturday.  The problem is, it’s still hard to tell how good they might be.  They beat a terrible Idaho team to open the season.  Their second game they played host to rival Marshall in a huge revenge game and they scored a TD very late to extend the margin in a tight game and get by with a 21-10 win.  Last week they pounded SE Louisiana.  The Bobcats do have a talented and experienced offense including a solid QB Vick so Minnesota better be on their game here and not peaking ahead to next week’s game @ Northwestern.

BALL STATE @ NORTHWESTERN – Current Line NORTHWESTERN (-19.5) – Opening Line (-19)

The Wildcats have probably been the surprise of the Big Ten thus far.  Not that we didn’t expect them to be solid, but there aren’t a lot of people that saw them at 3-0 having to play Stanford and @ Duke early in the year.  Defense is obviously leading the way for the Cats.  They currently rank 6th nationally in total defense allowing only 235 YPG.  They allowed only 6 points to Stanford and just 10 to Duke.  To give you an idea of how good that is, Stanford went onto score 31 points the following week vs UCF and then 41 points last Saturday vs USC.  Duke scored 55 & 37 points in their other two games.  NW has allowed only 1 TD in three games this year.  Now their offense is far from explosive ranking 97th (365 YPG) but they won’t need to be with the defense they have in place.  Ball State comes in at 2-1 beating two cupcakes (VMI & Eastern Michigan) while getting whipped @ Texas A&M 56-23.  In that game the Aggies had 3 offensive possessions in the first quarter and scored TD’s on all 3 to go along with a pick 6 to lead 28-3 at the end of the first quarter.  It was 49-3 at half.  One positive for Ball State, they did rush for 230 yards vs A&M and they are averaging 246 YPG rushing on the season.  Last week the Cards got down 17-0 to a marginal EMU team but stormed back for a 28-17 win.  They are led by a freshman QB Riley Neal who completed 24 of his 28 attempts last week.  Northwestern has been a favorite of this magnitude (-17 or higher) just 9 times (vs FBS teams) since 1980.  Ball State has actually beaten 2 of their last 3 Big Ten opponents outright but this one will be very tough with a young QB vs a great defense.

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ASA’s BIG TEN REPORT – Sept 19th

Big Ten Preview for Week #3 (Sept 19th) – Board Games Only…

UNLV @ MICHIGAN – OPENING LINE – No line – No opener on this game as UNLV’s starting QB Decker is questionable with a hamstring injury. Decker was injured late in the 1st quarter of last week’s game vs UCLA and didn’t play the final 3 quarters. Once he went out, the Rebels went on to pass for only 4 yards over the final 3 quarters in their 37-3 loss to the Bruins as his back up Kurt Palandech is more of a runner than a drop back passer. Last week was a disappointment for UNLV as they looked for some progress after a solid week 1 performance @ Northern Illinois where despite the 38-30 loss, the Rebs had more first downs and were only -52 yards for the game. If Decker can’t play UNLV will probably be running the ball a lot as Palandech is not a great passer and they face a Michigan team that allowed Oregon St to pass for only 79 yards last week on 20 attempts. UNLV is coached by first year head man Tony Sanchez who had been a high school coach for the previous 16 years, including the last 6 at Nevada power Bishop Gorman H.S. in Las Vegas. He led Bishop Gorman to an 85-5 record and won the state title all 6 years he was there. Michigan rolled to a 35-7 win and dominated the stats as well rolling up 405 yards while limiting the Beavers to only 138. OSU averaged a terrible 2.6 yards per play in that game. Michigan QB Jake Rudock threw another interception last Saturday giving him 4 in his first 2 starts for Michigan. That after throwing just 5 all last season as the Iowa starter. The Wolverines are fairly healthy entering this game with only starting CB Lewis and FB Kerridge questionable. Michigan plays BYU next some coming off their home opener last week, this could be a tough spot to play at their emotional & physical peak. However, if UNLV QB Decker can’t play, we don’t see them doing much of anything offensively. Last time UNLV beat a Big Ten team was in 2003 vs Wisconsin. They are 0-6 SU since then.

KENT STATE @ MINNESOTA – OPENING LINE MINNESOTA (-23) – The Gophs come home after a big OT win @ Colorado State last week. Minnesota looked a little out of sorts in that game which was to be expected after playing TCU to the wire at home in their first game of the season. Minny did dominate the stats with 9 more first downs and +100 total yards. However they ran 86 plays to pick up 413 yards which only equates to 4.8 yards per play. Minnesota started the game in an offensive rut not able to get a first down on their first 6 drives. After that they went up-tempo with their “new” no-huddle offense and things improved drastically. Head coach Jerry Kill said they may go with the no-huddle more often this week. The Gophers are banged up on the offensive line coming out of that game. Starting guard Jon Christenson will be out a month or so with a knee injury. Two other starting offensive linemen (Lauer & Campion) were held out of practice early in the week for injuries and their status is up in the air. Also starting WR KJ Maye who has 10 receptions for 127 yards was in a “green” non-contact jersey for much of this week in practice (chest injury). He hopes to be ready by Saturday. Kent has already played one Big Ten team getting destroyed 52-3 @ Illinois. The Illini only had 100 more total yards in that game but Kent was done in by 4 turnovers which led to Illinois TD drives of just 5, 6, and 7 yards! On the bright side for Kent, at least they scored. In their previous 3 games vs Big Ten teams the Flashes were outscored 124-0! Since 2005, Kent has faced 6 Big Ten teams and been outscored 268-6!

TROY @ WISCONSIN – OPENING LINE WISCONSIN (-35) – Last week we had a big line move on the Miami OH – Wisconsin game as they Badgers opened -34 and were bet all the way down to -31. The move was dead wrong as the Badgers had the spread covered at halftime (37-0) and went on to win 58-0. Starting RB Corey Clement sat out with a pulled groin. He hasn’t been practicing this week as of this writing (Tuesday) and unless he’s 100% ready to roll, they won’t play him. Our word is it is very, very doubtful he will play this Saturday. Clement’s back up, Dare Ogunbowale (a former walk on), rolled up 112 yards on just 16 carries. The Badger offensive line is not anywhere near the level they are used to at Wisconsin. They actually had trouble getting a big push early on vs the Miami OH defensive line which is concerning. They improved as the game went on but with 3 new starters and a number of injuries up front, this offense will not be able to just pound good teams as they have become accustomed to doing. QB Joel Stave has made huge improvements under new head coach and great offensive mind Paul Chryst. After just 2 games he’s thrown for 464 yards (on pace for 2,800) with 5 TD’s (he had just 9 last year) and a completion percentage of 65% (up from 53% last year). He’s already attempted 69 passes in 2 games and Wisconsin is no longer a “non-threat” to throw the ball. However, they may not have to throw the ball much this Saturday against a Troy team that has been gashed for 251 yards rushing (NC State) and 263 on the ground (Charleston Southern) the last 2 weeks. The Trojans were whipped 49-21 in week 1 by NC State & despite beating Charleston Southern 44-16 last week, the yardage was dead even at 374 apiece.

MORE BIG TEN NEWS…KEEP READING…

ILLINOIS @ NORTH CAROLINA – OPENING LINE NORTH CAROLINA (-9) – We had a feeling the Illini might be affected in a positive way by the Tim Beckman firing and it looks like we might be correct. New head coach & offensive coordinator Bill Cubit was very well respected by the players and they seem to love playing for him. He’s much more “positive” than Beckman was and with the losing culture and “fragile psyche” of the Illini players (because of losing), it just wasn’t a good fit. Illinois has had two easy wins vs Kent and Western Illinois outscoring the two 96-3. We’ll find out how far the Illini have advanced this week against a decent North Carolina team. The Heels are 1-1 after losing to South Carolina the first week and then crushing NC A&T last Saturday. In their loss to the Gamecocks, UNC actually dominated the stat book racking up 440 yards on 7 yards per play (just 5.3 YPP for South Carolina). The problem was the Heels turned it over 3 times to 0 for SC. Not only that, two of their turnovers were interceptions in the endzone making the close loss (17-13) a tough one in a game they should have won. Can the Illini turn the corner this year? Some say they may have done so last year with a 6-6 regular season record and a bowl appearance. However, the fact is, they lost all 7 games last year by double digits and 5 of their 6 wins required 4th quarter come from behind rallies. Illinois has been a horrendous road team winning only 3 of their last 21 SU away from home! They are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 away and as a road dog for a TD or more, they are just 3-10 ATS.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ OHIO STATE – OPENING LINE OHIO STATE (–33.5) – The Bucks were favored by 41 points last week at home vs Hawaii and fell just short winning 38-0. OSU was lethargic to start the game taking just a 14-0 lead into halftime. That was not a huge surprise as they played their massively hyped season opener @ Virginia Tech on Monday and then had a short week to get ready for a “ho-hum” opponent. The Hawaii defense was very good holding the Buckeyes to 363 yards on 83 plays for just 4.3 YPP. However the Rainbows could only muster 2.7 YPP for the game and were held under 90 yards both rushing and passing. NIU struggled in week 1 getting by UNLV 38-30 as a 23-point favorite. The Huskies only outgained the Rebels by 53 yards in that game. Last week against an overmatched Murray State team NIU rolled 57-26 on 636 total yards. The look to be very solid again offensively and that’s the norm for this team. They have now averaged more than 31 PPG and more than 440 YPG in each of the last 5 seasons. The Huskies have become the top program in the MAC making it to 5 straight conference title games, winning 3 of them. This NIU team has won 37 of their last 40 games (excluding bowls) and they won’t be intimidated in this venue. They’ve actually won their last 3 contests vs Big Ten teams @ Northwestern last year & @ Purdue and @ Iowa the year before. The Huskies have not been an underdog of this magnitude since the 1998 season. OSU is obviously has vastly superior talent, however they better come to play on Saturday if they expect to cover this huge number. After a lack luster effort last week, we’re guessing Urban Meyer has this team ready to play on Saturday.

NORTHWESTERN @ DUKE – OPENING LINE DUKE (-3) – Don’t sleep on this NW defense which might just be one of the top few stop units in the Big Ten. They were solid on that side of the ball last year but simply ran out of gas down the stretch. They held 5 of their first 6 opponents last year to 24 points or less including Wisconsin & Minnesota. They held 4 of their Big Ten opponents to 14 points or fewer last year. The Cats bring back 8 starters on that side of the ball including their entire D Line. They have yet to give up a TD this year. They opened the year by upsetting Stanford 16-6 limiting the Cardinal to just 240 yards for the game on only 3.8 YPP. Last week they shutout Eastern Illinois 41-0 and gave up only 138 total yards. EIU only moved the ball inside the NW 40 yard line twice and never got inside the 30. Duke has yet to be tested rolling over 2 weak opponents. They topped Tulane 37-7 to open the season and followed that up with a 55-0 win over NC Central. NCCU is an FCS team and Tulane has lost their two games 37-7 and 65-10. Because of their cupcake schedule so far, NW coach Pat Fitzgerald said the tape hasn’t helped them much as Duke has been fairly vanilla on offense. Expect a number of new wrinkles and formations this weekend as Devil HC David Cutcliffe is a fantastic offensive mind. One might expect these two top academic schools to simply keep quiet and play the game however that hasn’t been the case. Northwestern DL Ifeadi Odenigbo spoke early this week of pitching a shutout when they travel to Duke this Saturday. A few Devil players have taken offense to that and taken their thought to the twitter verse. It should make for an interesting game on Sunday.

VIRGINIA TECH @ PURDUE – OPENING LINE VA TECH (-5.5) – The Hokies take on their 2nd Big Ten opponent this season when they travel to Purdue on Saturday. After losing in the much hyped home opener vs #1 Ohio State, Va Tech had a “breather” last week hosting Furman. They took care of business rolling to a 42-3 win that included 299 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC. Not much can be taken from the game as Furman is a weak FCS opponent that has only 1 win in their last 12 games. Head coach Frank Beamer may have created a bit of a QB controversy. His starter, Michael Brewer, was injured in the Ohio State game and will be out for at least a month and probably longer. His replacement Brenden Motley did little to nothing against Ohio State completing just 44% of his passes for 36 yards in one half of work. Motley got the start vs Furman but Beamer decided to pull the redshirt off highly touted true frosh Dwayne Lawson on just the 3rd play of the game. Motley went onto have a solid game but Lawson did as well so expect to see both again on Saturday. We felt Purdue would be much improved this year and it looks like we were on target. The Boilers had Marshall beat on the road in week 1, but 2 pick 6’s by QB Appleby (4 interceptions thrown in the game) cost them the game. Last week they dominated Indiana State in a game they could have been flat in after their tough loss the Sunday before. They return QB Appleby and all 5 starting offensive lineman as their offense is much improved putting up 34.5 PPG so far after averaging just 23 PPG a year ago. VT has been a very solid road team winning 8 of their last 11 games away from home. Purdue on the other hand has only won 5 of their last 20 home games. The Boilers are improved and VT will be playing with unproven QB’s in their first ever road action. An upset?

NEBRASKA @ MIAMI FL – OPENING LINE MIAMI FL (-3.5) – These two met last year in Lincoln and the Huskers won 41-31 as an 8-point favorite. The total yardage was very close (Nebraska was +21 total yards) with the Huskers controlling the ground game (343 to 76) while the Canes took to the air (359 to 113). Nebraska led by 17 late and Miami came up with a TD with just 18 seconds remaining in the game to cut the final margin to 10. The Canes come in at 2-0 beating Bethune Cookman & Florida Atlantic. There most recent game last Friday night @ FAU was much closer than the final score of 44-20 would indicate. The game was tied at 20 apiece in the 3rd quarter. FAU lost their starting QB Jaquez Johnson early in the first quarter and his replacement, Jason Driskel threw 2 ints in his first collegiate action. The Owls had 5 turnovers in all and the Canes didn’t turn the ball over once. The Huskers bounced back after their heartbreaking hail-mary loss to BYU and whipped South Alabama last week. The Nebraska defense has been shaky vs the pass this year allowing 379 & 313 yards through the air the first 2 games. Big plays have been a big problem as the Huskers have already allowed pass plays of 55, 53, 42, 38, 37, 33, 24, and 21 yards this year. Last year when they faced Miami, then freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw for 359 yards and completed 13 passes of 15 yards or more. Kaaya is a year older and much better than he was at the point when they played Nebraska last year so the Husker defensive coaches have been stressing and stopping big plays has been brought up often at practice this week. The Canes are off to a good start, however this is a team that has won more than 7 games only once since 2009. Since 2010, they have just a 36-28 overall record. Miami will be without starting LB Darrion Owens who was lost for the season last week. However, starting WR’s Berrios will return and Coley might be back after both missed last week.

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ INDIANA – OPENING LINE INDIANA (-2.5) – While IU’s defense was better last week than in their first week debacle, they weren’t great. FIU put up over 400 yards in the 36-22 Indiana win. However, the game was closer than the final score and one key play really turned the tide. Down 29-22 driving for the tying score with under 4:00 remaining the game, FIU QB Alex McGough drove the Panthers down to the IU 2-yard line on the doorstep of a tie game. Instead he threw an interception that was returned 96-yards for a TD to give IU the clinching TD. Back to the defense…In two games the Hoosier defense has given up almost 1,100 yards. They did get a number of key players back on the defensive side of the ball last week after being suspended in week one, most important being DL Darius Latham. Western Kentucky is obviously a team that can shred a poor defense. The Hilltoppers averaged 44 PPG on 535 YPG a year ago. They struggled offensively @ Vandy in their first game but bounced back in a big way last week against a very solid La Tech defense scoring 41 points and rolling up 589 yards. The problem is, their defense allowed 38 points and 580 yards to the Bulldogs. So while WKY might have their way with Indiana’s defense, the same can be said about the Hoosiers offense. Indiana scored 29 points offensively last week but it should have been much more. On their first 6 drives of the game, the Hoosiers crossed the 50 yard line 5 times and pushed inside the FIU 30 yard line on 4 of those, yet only came away with 13 points. Head coach Kevin Wilson acknowledged he made some very poor offensive calls and didn’t take advantage of field position. This one could be a shootout.

RUTGERS @ PENN STATE – OPENING LINE PENN STATE (-8.5) – It was definitely another tough week for the Rutgers football program. Not only did they lose a home game to Washington State, their star WR Leonte Carroo, all Big Ten last year, was arrested after the game for assaulting a woman he was involved with. He is now suspended. That is the SEVENTH Rutgers player that has been arrested this month alone! All of the off the field noise has to have a negative effect on not only the players, but the coaches focus on preparation. It has quickly put head coach Kyle Flood on the hot seat and he has been suspended for 3 games which is obviously a distraction. We’ll keep a close eye on this moving forward. Back to the Washington State loss which wasn’t nearly as close at the 37-34 final score indicated. WSU had a big edge yardage wise (+157) and Rutgers needed 2 return TD’s (one punt & one kickoff) just to stay close. They also had a punt return for a TD the week before in their blowout win over Norfolk State. Penn State’s offense has been under a microscope since the end of last season when they averaged only 20 PPG overall and topped 20 points only ONCE the entire Big Ten season. The offensive line was supposed to be drastically improved, after a horrendous 2014. Well after 2 games it doesn’t look like that has happened. The PSU offense is averaging just 18 PPG – actually down from last year – and just 255 YPG on offense. QB Hackenberg was sacked 10 times in their opener vs Temple after 44 times last season. He has thrown for only 231 yards in two games combined and this from a QB that is supposed to be a potential high NFL draft choice. The offense still isn’t good. Last year PSU went into Rutgers and escaped with a hard fought 13-10 win and the Nits were +4 in turnovers in that game. We’re probably looking at another “grinder” on Saturday.

PITTSBURGH @ IOWA – OPENING LINE IOWA (-5) – The Hawkeyes went into Pitt last year as a 6.5 point dog and pulled off the mild upset winning 24-20. The Panthers held a semi comfortable 17-7 lead at half and had a +130 yardage edge at the break. The final stats also had Pitt with a +7 edge in first downs and +120 in total yardage. The Panthers also had 20 more offensive snaps and still lost by 4. Iowa has impressed so far this year. They definitely look like an improved football team. After rolling over a very good FCS team in week 1 (Illinois St) and Hawks got by state rival Iowa State in Ames by a final score of 31-17. It was close most of the way with Iowa scoring two TD’s in the final 3:00 minutes to pull away. However, Iowa dominated in the trenches with a 260-63 rushing edge and a 6.8 to 5.0 YPP advantage. Lots has changed on the Pitt side since then including a new coaching staff led by head man Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi is very familiar with the Iowa offense from his days defending it as the DC at Michigan State. In Narduzzi most recent meeting with Iowa in 2013, his MSU defense held the Hawks to 14 points on just 264 total yards (only 23 yards rushing). The more concerning issue for Narduzzi and Pitt is at the key position on the field, QB. Last year’s starter Chad Voytik has been under center to start the first two games but was replaced last week in the 2nd quarter by Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman who was 12 of 17 for 148 yards. Voytik did not re-enter the game after being pulled in a tie game in the 2nd quarter and Narduzzi has not announced a starter as of this writing. Pitt won both games but they weren’t easy. They struggled to a 7-point home win over Youngstown St to open the season and then led only 10-7 last week @ Akron before extending to a 24-7 win. Pitt has a bye after this game while Iowa hosts North Texas.

AIR FORCE @ MICHIGAN STATE – OPENING LINE MICHIGAN STATE (-27) – This could be a dangerous game for Sparty. It’s going to be awfully tough for this team to get up emotionally for this game as a huge favorite. They had been waiting for a full year for another crack at Oregon and the overwhelming thought was, if they can get by the Ducks, this MSU team would run the table until their match up @ Ohio State on November 21st. They got the win and it was a tight one that was undecided with only a few seconds remaining. Now they have only a week to “come down” from that win and prepare for an Air Force offense they almost never see. The Falcons, who had a 10-3 record last year, rarely pass the ball and lead the nation in rushing attempts per game at 69. They did lose starting QB Romine last week to a knee injury and he is gone for the season. His replacement, Karson Roberts, came in last week with Air Force leading San Jose St by just 7 and led them to 2 TD’s in the 37-16 win. Roberts also started 3 games in 2013 so he has some experience. The knock on him is he doesn’t pass the ball as well as Romine but when you attempt only 11 passes per game as a team that weakness isn’t quite as pronounced. It is rare for a disciplined, smart Air Force team to be getting this type of number. Since 1980, the Falcons have been an underdog of 21 points or more just 11 times. They are 8-3 ATS in those games winning 2 of them outright. Michigan State will obviously have a big edge on both sides of the ball if they show up and play. The question is will they and if not can they cover this big number?

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ASA’s BIG TEN REPORT – Saturday, Sept 12

Big Ten Preview for Saturday, Sept 12 – Board Games Only…

OREGON @ MICHIGAN STATE – OPENING LINE MICHIGAN STATE (-3.5) – These two faced off last year in Eugene and Oregon (-13) pulled away in the 2nd half for a 46-27 win. The game was much closer than that however as MSU actually held a 27-18 lead in the 3rd quarter. After the Spartans took at 27-18 lead early in the 3rd, the Ducks went onto outscore MSU 28-0 and outyard MSU 284 to 132. The overall yardage was fairly close (MSU 466 & OU 491) but Sparty turned the ball over twice (no turnovers for Oregon). The Ducks 2015 debut last week was very impressive on offense (61 points & 731 total yards) but discouraging on defense (42 points allowed & 549 yards allowed). New Eastern Washington QB’s West & Hennessy torched the OU secondary for 438 passing yards on 8 yards per attempt. Last year’s EWU QB Vernon Adams switched jerseys and is the starting QB for Oregon this season. He had a solid performance before he took a cheap shot late in the game from one of his “teammates” from last year and had to exit. Looks like he’ll be fine for this Saturday’s game. MSU took care of a solid Western Michigan team on the road winning 37-24. Sparty’s defense was OK but not great in this one. WMU put up just short of 400 yards on 5 YPP. It was MSU’s first game without long time defensive coordinator Narduzzi who is now the head man at Pitt. Looks like both defenses might have problems slowing down their opponents which is why the total came out at 67. This is a game MSU has had this game circled for a full year. They are 13-1 the last two years at home with their only loss coming to Ohio State here a year ago. Oregon has not been an underdog since the 2011 season (46 straight games as a favorite). The Ducks were 26-13 ATS as an underdog from late in the 1999 season through 2011.

WASHINGTON STATE @ RUTGERS – OPENING LINE RUTGERS (-2) – Lots of distractions taking place right now at Rutgers with an academic scandal and the dismissal of 5 arrested players. Those distractions didn’t come into play last week as the Knights played a severely overmatched Norfolk State team who was just 4-8 last season. It was a close game at half with Rutgers leading 21-13. In the 2nd half, the Knights regained the services of QB Chris Laviano & WR Leonte Carroo who were both suspended in the 1st half. They went onto outscore Norfolk St 42-0 in the 2nd half for a final of 63-13. Washington St comes in shaken. They were upset at home by Portland State as a 30 point favorite! How unlikely was that? Since 1980 there have been 1,235 teams favored by 30 points or more and only 14 of those teams have lost outright. WSU outgained Portland St 411 to 294 but their high powered offense was hindered as the game was played in a driving rain storm. Starting QB Luke Falk took a big hit late in the game and has been limited this week in practice. We’re told he’ll be ready and will start on Saturday. These two met last year and Rutgers (+8) pulled the road upset winning 41-38. Look for the Knights to try and control tempo again this year by running A LOT! They held an 7:00 minute time of possession edge in last year’s game rushing 43 times for 215 yards.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL @ INDIANA – OPENING LINE INDIANA (-7.5) – The Hoosiers escaped with a win over FCS opponent Southern Illinois 48-47. After scoring the go ahead TD with just 1:20 remaining, IU allowed the Salukis to go 75 yards in 5 plays scoring with 18 seconds left. Rather than kick the XP and move to overtime, SIU decided to go for the win and their 2-point attempt failed. The Hoosiers looked very good on offense rolling up 595 total yards. The problem is, as it has been for years, the Indiana defense. They gave up a whopping 659 yards on an embarrassing 8.5 yards per play. To put that in perspective, that’s more yardage than SIU (who had a 5-6 record last year) put up on any of their FCS opponents. It was 100 yards more than SIU gained on last year’s opening opponent, Taylor University. The Hoosiers were missing key players at each level of their defense with starting DT Latham and starting LB Scales suspended. Starting safety Dutra was also out with an injury. In all IU had 9 players suspended for game 1. Eight of those players will be back this week with the exception of Scales who is serving a 2 game suspension. This is another dangerous game for IU. Florida International upset their in-state rival UCF 15-14 last Thursday. The Panthers, unlike Indiana, look to have a stout defense holding UCF to just 295 total yards on 64 plays (4.6 YPP). FIU has also had a few extra days to prepare for this one playing on opening Thursday last week. Perhaps a letdown for FIU after their big win?

MIAMI OH @ WISCONSIN – OPENING LINE WISCONSIN (-34) – Badgers are a bit beat up coming off their physical game with Alabama. Alabama was able to wear down Wisconsin in the trenches in the 2nd half en route to a 35-17 win. Speaking of trenches, this looks to be one of Wisconsin’s weaker offensive lines in years. They started 3 players up front who have never made a collegiate start. They’ve also had a number of injuries on the O Line so they are very thin at that spot. Starting RB Clement tweaked his groin during the week and was not nearly 100% on Saturday. Starting WR McEvoy pulled a hamstring in practice and also was not at 100%. Lastly, the QB of their defense and leading returning tackler, safety Mike Caputo exited after only a few plays last week due to a concussion. He will be evaluated later this week. QB Stave looked solid as we thought he might as new head coach Paul Chryst is very good with QB’s. The Badgers were held to just 40 yards rushing and 15 of those came from a WR on an end around. This from a team that has averaged 264 YPG rushing of the last 5 years. It was their lowest rushing total for a game since the 2012 season. They should be fine this week against a Miami OH team that allowed 200 YPG on the ground last year and 155 yards rushing on over 4 YPC to Presbyterian last Saturday (a 26-7 Miami Oh win, a 13-7 game entering the 4th quarter).

OREGON STATE @ MICHIGAN – OPENING LINE MICHIGAN (–14) – Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan debut ended in a disappointing 24-17 loss @ Utah. The Wolverines actually outgained the Utes 355 to 337 and 4.9 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The two glaring problems for Michigan in that game were interceptions (3) by new QB Jake Rudock (former Iowa QB) including one returned for a TD. Rudock threw only 5 picks all last season as the starter for the Hawkeyes so we guess his game vs Utah may have been an aberration. The second was their running game. Harbaugh really wants to emphasize the rushing attack and beat teams up on the ground. Michigan tallied only 76 yards rushing on only 2.6 YPR. Defensively the Wolves will again be among the best in the nation. After allowing just 311 YPG last year (6th nationally) new DC DJ Durkin had them looking very good last Thursday. Former Wisconsin head man Gary Andersen brings Oregon St into Ann Arbor Saturday. He’s transitioning the Beavs to a spread offense from their pro style sets under former coach Mike Riley. OSU won their opener vs Weber State 26-7 in a game that was 6-0 at half. True freshman QB Seth Collins will be making his first career start after impressing in the 2nd half last week. They’ll rely heavily on the run (only 110 yards passing last week vs Weber) which could be a problem against a stout and big Michigan front. The game also starts at 12 Noon ET so Oregon State’s “body clocks” will be set at 9 AM Pacific.

MORE BIG TEN NEWS HERE…KEEP READING…

IOWA @ IOWA STATE – OPENING LINE IOWA (-3.5) – Both teams impressed in their openers last weekend. Iowa faced an Illinois State team that made it to the FCS National Championship game last year. The Hawkeyes dominated jumping out to a 31-0 lead before a few late TD’s made it look more respectable at 31-14. Iowa was +8 first downs, +200 yards, and +5:00 time of possession. Iowa State also whipped a very reputable FCS opponent downing Northern Iowa 31-7. UNI is a team that beat this Iowa State squad 2 years ago and then nearly topped Iowa last season. For comparison’s sake, Northern Iowa played host to Illinois State last year and beat the Redbirds 42-28. In their game on Saturday @ ISU, despite the lopsided final score, the numbers were fairly even. The Cyclones had a minimal 310 to 302 total yardage edge along with just one more first down. Iowa State led just 10-7 at half but it could have been much worse as the Cyclones missed 2 field goals and QB Richardson overthrew what would have been 2 TD passes. Iowa State pulled the upset last year winning in Iowa City 20-17 as a 13-point dog. Neither team did much offensively as ISU tallied 337 yards and Iowa had only 275. That’s a common theme in this rivalry that has averaged only 39 total points per game the last 17. Only 3 of those 17 games have topped 48 total points. Iowa State has dominated the spread numbers going 13-4 ATS in this series.

MINNESOTA @ COLORADO STATE – OPENING LINE MINNESOTA (-5.5) – The Gophs defense was very impressive in their home opener vs #2 TCU. We were told the coaching staff is really excited about that side of the ball and feel they have their best defensive backfield in years. That looked like the case last Thursday despite the 23-17 loss to the Horned Frogs. While TCU did put up 449 yards, it also took them 84 plays to do so (just 5.2 YPP). This from a TCU team that average 6.6 YPP a year ago. TCU has now faced Minnesota twice in their last 14 games and the Gophers have held them to an average of 26.5 PPG in those two games. TCU has averaged 48 PPG in their other 12 games during that 14 game stretch. Minny QB Leidner looked decent throwing for 197 yards. They’ll need some consistency from him in the passing game if they want to beat the better teams on the schedule. Hard to gather much from new head coach Mike Bobo’s CSU debut. The Rams crushed Savannah State 65-13, although State might be the worst team in the entire FCS. They were 0-12 last year losing 10 of those games by 2 TD’s or more. CSU was 6-0 at home last year and you’d think they’d have a very good long term record at home but that’s not the case (just 31-26 at home the last 10 years). The Gophs have been a road favorite just 6 times over the last 5 years so not something they are used to.

BUFFALO @ PENN STATE – OPENING LINE PENN STATE (-18.5) – Well the talk of PSU’s offense, which averaged only 20 PPG last year, being better may have been a bit premature. Granted, they were playing a Temple team that looks to have a very good defense, but that was ugly. PSU QB Hackenberg looked flustered the entire game and why wouldn’t he. He was under constant pressure and the Owls sacked him a whopping 10 times. The offensive line which was horrendous last year for the Nits, looked just as bad in game 1. Temple held Penn State to only 180 total yards on 52 plays. Hackenberg completed only 11 passes and averaged only 4 yards per pass attempt. After their first 2 drives which resulted in 10 points, the Nittany Lions totaled 33 yards on their final 12 drives! Buffalo has a new coach in Lance Leipold who led Wisconsin-Whitewater to SIX National Titles and has a ridiculous career record of 110-6. Buffalo rolled in their first game beating Albany 51-14. They are experienced on offense with a solid QB in senior Joe Licata, who has started 29 consecutive games for the Bulls. Not sure this is a spot for PSU to be laying a huge number into a well-coached team that can score points. We’ll see.

BOWLING GREEN @ MARYLAND – OPENING LINE MARYLAND (-9) – Bowling Green has a very tough back to back situation here after playing @ Tennessee last weekend. The Falcons lost that game by 29 points (59-30 final) but that score was quite deceiving in our opinion. BG racked up 557 yards on 85 plays (6.5 YPP) compared to Tennessee’s 604 yards on 87 plays (6.9 YPP). Obviously you wouldn’t normally see a 29 point differential in those numbers. Maryland played host to Richmond in what looked like a near empty stadium at kickoff. The Spiders gave them a game until half trailing just 22-14 before Maryland exploded for a 50-21 win. Terp punt returner William Likely set a Big Ten record with 233 return yards including one for a TD. Maryland rushed for 341 yards on 45 carries while new QB Perry Hills only completed 12 passes for 138 yards. They also looked very solid defensively allowing only 276 total yards to the Spiders. We’ll really find out about their defense this weekend as BG will push the pace in an attempt to run 80+ plays. The Falcons offense looked great against what was supposed to be a solid SEC defense in Tennessee. We expect them to put up big numbers again this week against a Maryland team that we projected near the bottom of the Big Ten defensively. We’ll find out a lot about Maryland this weekend.

HAWAII @ OHIO STATE – OPENING LINE OHIO STATE (-40)

With all of the build up to Monday’s game @ Virginia Tech, the Bucks are bound to have a bit of a letdown this weekend at home vs Hawaii. The question is, is this Hawaii team good enough to take advantage of that and keep the game within 5 or so TD’s? Scheduling wise, this situation does favor Hawaii who played last Thursday as compared to Monday for Ohio State. However, you also have to factor in the 4,500 mile trip the Rainbows must make which probably negates the scheduling advantage. The Bows are off an upset home won over Buffalo late last Thursday night. They were a 7.5 point home dog and won the game 28-20. The Rainbows had only 302 total yards in the game – averaging just 4.1 YPP. New QB, Max Wittek, a transfer from USC threw for 202 in his debut & the Bows benefitted from 3 Colorado turnovers. If they could only put up barely 4 YPP on a Colorado team that finished 0-9 in the Pac 12 last year, what will they do against Ohio State’s defense? The last time Hawaii lost by 40+ points was @ BYU in 2012 (47-0 final). Meanwhile, the Bucks put up 42 points and over 10 YPP on a defense that is expected to be very good this year. Not only did they average more than 10 yards per play, they up nearly 10 YPC on the ground rushing for 360 yards on 37 carries. Not only that, the Bucks get back a number of key players (Joey Bosa, Jalin Marshall, etc…) who were suspended for last weekend’s game. OSU can name this score. The question is, do they want to win by more than 40 or do they call the dogs off late and coast keeping this close to the number?

SOUTH ALABAMA @ NEBRASKA – OPENING LINE NEBRASKA (-25.5) – We all know how the Nebraska game ended last week with a BYU hail mary. Now the key question is how do the Huskers respond this week? Do they come out angry and ready to roast someone or do they come out flat after feeling sorry for themselves and how they lost their home opener? The Husker defense looks to be a potential problem again this year. After getting torched at the end of the season last year, the trend continued as BYU rolled up 511 total yards. Dating back to last year, in their last 5 games the Nebraska has allowed an average of 40 PPG and 488 YPG. The Huskers obviously need to get that addressed and quickly. If the NU defense can’t get “better” this week, they might be in big trouble. South Alabama was a pedestrian offense last year getting held to 12 points or less 5 times! This team returned only 5 starters this year which is the fewest in all of college football. The Jags struggled to beat Gardner Webb last week by a final score of 33-23, a game they trailed early in the 3rd quarter. South Alabama had 408 total yards, however 148 of those came on two long TD plays of 92 & 56 yards. The Jags played 2 Power 5 teams last year losing @ Mississippi State 35-3 and @ South Carolina 37-12. Nebraska plays @ Miami FL next week so a tough sandwich spot coming off a last second loss.

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