Tag: ASA

Rickenbach MLB Free bet May 9

Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach MLB Monday Free Pick Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -162 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET – The Reds got just their 5th win of the season yesterday. Cincinnati is 0-4 this season when off a win! Castillo is starting and is a solid pitcher but it is his first start of the season coming back from injury. Woodruff has been piling up the strikeouts for Milwaukee and he should dominate in this outing. Brewers are off B2B losses but had won 9 of 10 before that. Milwaukee has yet to lose 3 straight games this season and I don’t see that changing here either. Free Pick MILWAUKEE.

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Kentucky Derby bet 2022

#10 Zandon at 3/1 odds

Who’d thought after the Blue Grass win, he’d be the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby at 3/1!

I texted a buddy a few weeks back and said you think Zandon will be less than 9/1 come Kentucky Derby, we both said yes around 5/6-1, I didn’t BITE and what a NUT kick now as Mike B., post him at 3/1!! Not let’s get down to business on Zandon, we CASHED big on him in the Blue Grass and our write-up and logic was spot on that afternoon.

Chad has babied this colt, one glaring thing I noticed last year, was going from that maiden win to the 1 1/8th Remsen, also not in those two races, he was a stalker and not a stone cold closer as he’s been as a 3yo.

Zandon’s stride is something remarkable and it’s really been on display of late in the mornings after his big Blue Grass win. He was right back working just 14 days after his big win in the Blue Grass and our “Keeneland Contact” stated his 48.3 work looked like a 46 flat and they couldn’t believe their watch that morning.

They stated he was “Under STOUT restraint” for 3/8th and finished like a beast! He then came right back 6 days later at Churchill and was even more impressive and that work has made him the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

He had no shot in the Risen Star when facing Epicenter for the first time, he was coming into that race off a 70+ days and shipping into NOLA without a comeback effort going 1 1/8th off works is tough to do.

Zandon then hopped at the start to put himself at a further disadvantage, but he did come with a powerful late run and got up for the show money as Smile Happy finished a half-length in front of Zando at the wire.

Risen Star Internal Fractions Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.15 second 1/4 mile — :24.92 third 1/4 mile — :24.18 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.33 final 1/8 mile — :12.10 final 3/8 mile — :36.43 – SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

They decided to bypass the La. Derby and shipped into Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes and Zandon ran that afternoon to our expectations! He gobbled up that field with ease and passed Smile Happy down the lane, like he was tied to the rail! The second most impressive win, we’ve seen during the Triple Crown prep races.

Blue Grass Internal Fractions Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :25.04 second 1/4 mile — :24.25 third 1/4 mile — :24.48 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.29 final 1/8 mile — :12.29 final 3/8 mile — :36.58 – Another serious finish!!!

No one was CLOSE to him on the gallop out! This is one serious colt and Chad has babied him since the Remsen, one big eye catcher from our POV, he wintered at Payson Park and that is a very deep surface and you can get fit big time when you continuously work over that surface.

Chad not once, ever thought about entering Zandon at Gulfstream Park, just right down the road, he decides to ship into the Big Easy for the Risen Star back to Payson and then ships to Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes. He bypassed Florida all together with this colt as he knew he could get him fit working him at Payson and wanted to get two 1 1/8th races under his belt, before the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s a quote form Chad Brown about Zandon, after the Remsen! Chad Brown said, “As you know, I have NEVER stretched a horse out that far off just one six-furlong race, but this horse is freaky good and can win the Derby.” Zandon’s Thorograph projections is a beautiful site for those that use them as their speed # bible.

ZANDON #’S – “6 ½” to “4 ½” to “2 ½” to “1 ½

ASA NBA free bet April 15

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -2 at Cleveland Cavaliers, Friday, 7:30PM ET

We are going to back the hotter team here and the Hawks. The Cavs were down by 20+ points a few times in their play-in game against the Nets before a late flurry made the final score respectable. Cleveland has struggled against the leagues better teams of late with losses to the Nets (twice), a home loss to Philly, an “L” at Atlanta, and two home loss to Dallas and Chicago. That’s 6 losses in their last ten games against other playoff teams. Atlanta can say the exact opposite as they’ve played extremely well down the stretch of the regular season with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games. In that ten game stretch they have quality wins over Charlotte, the Nets, Cavs and Warriors. Prior to the All-Star break the Cavs were the 7th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA allowing 1.097-points per possession. Since the break they rank 24th in the NBA allowing 1.173PPP, which is not a good sign facing a Hawks team that is 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency since the Break at 1.201PPP. Atlanta hasn’t been good defensively all season long but in their last five games they rank 11th in the league in DEFF. Based on how these teams are trending we have to back Atlanta minus the short number here.

ASA NBA Champion Prediction 2022

Who’s going to win it all in 2022?

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season.  The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.110 points scored/allowed per possession or 110 points per 100 possessions. The Utah Jazz were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 116.7 points per 100 possessions (1.167PPP) while the Atlanta Hawks were a close second at 1.165PPP with the Bucks (1.152), Suns (1.149) and Grizzlies (1.147PPP) rounding out the top five. The Boston Celtics own the top defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing just 107 or 1.070 points per possession this season. The other four teams that round out the top five are Golden State, Phoenix, Memphis and Miami. If history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting the NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” Champions in the recent decades.

Below are the Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past thirteen Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5TH)

2019-20 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2022     ??????

You can see for yourself that every team that has won a Championship in the last ten years had an OEFF and DEFF in the top 11 for that season.  Using this model to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Boston and Miami from the East, Phoenix, Utah and Memphis from the West. There are clearly some favorites or notable names that did not make the list. The Milwaukee Bucks are 3rd in OEFF, but rank 13th in DEFF. The Golden State Warriors have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating but are 16th in offensive efficiency. Brooklyn who had to deal with Kyrie Irving missing half the games was 11th in OEFF, 19th in DEFF. The outlier is the Philadelphia 76ers who just missed the top eleven, ranking 12th in both OEFF/DEFF.

2021-22 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1stth

Utah Jazz: OEFF 1st, DEFF 9th

Phoenix Suns: OEFF 4th, DEFF 3rd

Memphis Grizzlies: OEFF 5th, DEFF 4th

Miami Heat: OEFF 10th, DEFF 5th

If we add in another identifier of Efficiency Differential (the +/- of the Offensive/Defensive efficiency numbers) to our equation it helps narrow down the field of this year’s contenders. Going back to 2008 only one NBA Champion has had a EDIFF plus/minus of less than +5 which was the Mavericks in 2010-11 of plus +4.7. The last ten NBA Champions have produced a EDIFF +/- of 5.7 or better during the regular season. If we apply that logic to this year’s field we narrow down our potential winner to four teams.

2021-22 Effficiency Differential leaders during the regular season:

1st Phoenix Suns +7.5

2nd Boston Celtics +7.4

3rd Utah Jazz +6.2

4th Memphis Grizzlies +5.7

Using the aforementioned guidelines our Money is on…the Phoenix Suns +260

The Phoenix Suns lost to the Bucks in the NBA Finals last season, so they’ve experience what it takes to get to the Finals and tasted bitter defeat. The Suns were favored in 69 of their 82 games during the regular season and finished the year at 64-18 SU with a +/- of 7.5PPG, which was best in the league. Phoenix owns home court throughout the Playoffs, and they were 32-9 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. If we look at Efficiency Differential, of the last eight NBA Champions, 3 have finished the regular season with the best +/- EDIFF. Phoenix was that team this season with an EDIFF of +7.5. The Suns have veteran point guard Chris Paul to guide the ship, a scoring machine in Devin Booker who is capable of carrying a team offensively and a rim protector and inside presence in Deandre Ayton. Then add in a mix of capable role players in Bridges, Crowder, Payne and Johnson and you have a team poised to win it all.

LONGSHOT: If you are looking for a better return on your investment, the UTAH JAZZ +$2500 are an intriguing long-shot proposition. The Jazz didn’t play well down the stretch of the regular season and are flying under the radar right now. But let’s look at the whole body of work or the season numbers for our prediction. The Jazz were favored in more games this season than the Suns with 74 of 82 games laying points. They own the 3rd best overall average Margin of Victory at +6PPG. The Jazz were 3rd this season in EDIFF and eight of the last thirteen NBA Champs have ranked 3rd or better in that category. Obviously, the Jazz have a similar roster to the Suns with a proven scorer in Donovan Mitchell, the best defensive center in the league in Gobert along with vets Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. Remember a few years ago when Mitchell was nearly unstoppable in the postseason? It will take a performance like that from him again along with the rest of the roster, but they clearly have the statistical support to win it all.

Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.

ASA NBA free bet April 13

ASA play on OVER 226 San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans 9:30PM ET

The value is clearly on the Over here if we examine the regular season games between these two teams. In the two most recent meetings in March – Vegas posted Totals of 237 and 231-points on the two games. In February the O/U was 230. Way back in December the line was 221. **NOW 226**

If we focus on the three most recent games we see two lower scoring games with 210 and 215-points being scored with the other game finishing with 238 total points.

The pace of play was fast in all three games though as the Spurs attempted 95 FG’s per game which is significantly higher than the NBA average of 88. The Pelicans averaged 89 FGA’s per game in the three most recent meetings.

San Antonio is the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA at 100 possessions per game. The Pelicans are slower at 21st at 97.2 possessions BUT they’ve been faster since the All-Star break at 98.5.

With CJ McCollum the Pelicans own the 9th best offensive efficiency ranking in NBA at 1.181PPP.

For the season the Spurs are 13th in OEFF at 1.124PPP.

Neither team is known for their defense….

Both teams are in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rating for the season with the Spurs ranking 16th and the Pels at 20th. Both teams rank 20th or worse in 3PT% defense

Spurs have totaled 227 or more points in 5 of their last seven. The Pelicans have scored 227 or more in 6 of their last nine.