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ASA – NFL Hall of Fame Game – Aug 4, 2022

ASA’s NFL PRE-SEASON HALL OF FAME GAME PREVIEW

LINE – Opened Las Vegas -1 and has been bet up to -2.5.  Total opened 33.5 and has been pushed down to 30.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUAR NOTES – Starting QB Trevor Lawrence and back up Beathard will not play in this game.  3rd stringer Jake Luton, who has not taken a snap since 2020, will get the start.  Luton played some in Jacksonville’s 1-15 season in 2020 and finished the year with 2 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  He was then cut by the Jags and spent most of last season on Seattle’s practice squad.  Once he exits rookie Kyle Sloter from Northern Colorado will get the rest of the snaps so not much experience at QB for Jacksonville in this game.  The Jags will also be without their top 2 RB’s in this game, Etienne and Robinson.  Jacksonville was a disaster last year under head coach Urban Meyer who treated his players like college kids and had very little respect in the locker room.  They went 3-14 last year and had the worst point differential in the NFL at -204.  We expect a much improved Jacksonville squad and that’s what the oddsmakers feel as well with their win total set at 6.5 after just 3 wins last year.  They will take the field with a new head coach Doug Pederson who had solid success as Philadelphia’s head man, including a Super Bowl win in the 2017/18 season.  We think Pederson, who has been very good with QB’s, will do wonders for Lawrence this season.  Look for his numbers to improve drastically.  As far as the pre-season is concerned, Pederson has an 8-8 overall record as a head coach but in his first year at the helm for the Eagles he was 4-0 in NFLX telling us he may put some extra emphasis on winning in his first year in Florida.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS NOTES – In this NFLX game specifically, the Raiders should have the edge at QB.  No announcement yet on whether starter Derek Carr will play but his back ups are fairly experienced.  Nick Mullens has made a number of NFL starts in his career and has attempted over 600 passes.  Jarrett Stidham will also play and started a few games for the Patriots back in 2020.  Like the Jags, the Raiders also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels, who has 2 years of head coaching experience with the Broncos in 2009 & 2010.  The Raiders were 10-7 last year and made the playoffs but their numbers didn’t support a team with that type of success.  They actually had a negative point differential of -65 which was 4th worst in the AFC despite their 10 win season.  Seven of their ten wins were by 4 points or fewer or in OT.  The Raiders actually were a perfect 4-0 in overtime games last season.  By our metrics they were probably closer to a .500 type team rather than a playoff squad.  McDaniels is a solid offensive mind who has always adapted very well to his QB strengths be it Tom Brady, Cam Newton, or Mac Jones.  The offense has added a few key pieces including GB WR Davante Adams and QB Carr is one of the underrated signal callers in the league.  The Raiders should be very good on that side of the ball.  In regards to the pre-season, Josh McDaniels had a 2-6 lifetime record but as with most 1st year head coaches, we expect him to want to win in the pre-season.   

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Rickenbach Free MLB play July 25

MLB Monday Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET – Action on pitchers. Boston has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game last 16 games! Even taking out the crazy 28-5 loss to Toronto, the Red Sox have allowed 7.3 runs per game last 15 games! In other words, no matter the starting pitcher Boston has been giving up piles of runs. If Pivetta starts tonight, that is even better as he has allowed 20 earned runs in his 13.1 innings in the month of July! As for the Guardians, they have averaged 6 runs per game last 7 games and their last 6 games have averaged a total of 10 runs scored. I look for this one to get to double digits regardless of who is on the mound but will mention that Plesac is the expected starter and he has allowed 11 runs (8 earned) in 14.2 innings in the month of July. Look for a high-scoring game at Fenway Park tonight. Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston

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Scott Rickenbach free MLB July 17

Rickenbach MLB Sunday Free Pick OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:35 ET – Action on pitchers. This is a contrarian play…like so many of mine are! But the fact is I don’t care who the starting pitchers are here. I know Flexen has good numbers. I also know Otto is likely to struggle. Yesterday’s game between these teams totaled just 3 runs despite 17 hits. No matter the starting pitchers here (my play is action), note that Seattle has won 13 straight games and scored an average of 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game in the first 9 games of this 10-game homestand and the last two games were the first two times they have been held below 5 runs in any of these games! Free Pick OVER 9 in Texas.

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Scott Rickenbach MLB free bet July 5

*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday Free Pick OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET – My biggest concern here is the weather. I like this play no matter who the starting pitchers are but just hope they can get the game in. The Yankees are the best team in baseball and will score their fair share of runs. The Pirates continue to be a scrappy team that is scoring decently and particularly when at home. That said, I feel we have good value here with a low total. The Yankees are scoring an average of 5 runs per game and no other team in MLB has topped the 400 run mark on the season like they have. New York is off a shutout loss Sunday but had scored an average of 6 runs per game in going 6-1 prior to that loss. The Pirates are also off a home shutout loss Sunday but had averaged 6.4 runs in their last 9 home games prior to that one and had won 6 of 8 as a host prior to that. You can see why I like this play no matter the pitchers but I will also mention that Taillon struggled often in the month of June and Quintana also struggled last month when he faced better-hitting teams. That is certainly the case here with facing the Yankees. Free Pick OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh