Tag: ASA

Posted on by

ASA Big Ten Predictions 2022

2022 BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

  • Ohio State -225
  • Michigan +700
  • Wisconsin +1200              
  • Penn State +1400
  • Nebraska +2000
  • Iowa +2000
  • Minnesota +2500
  • Michigan State +2500
  • Purdue +3000
  • Maryland +15000
  • Illinois +20000
  • Indiana +25000
  • Rutgers +30000
  • Northwestern +30000

Ohio State (11-2 LY) is the Big Ten favorite for a reason. They didn’t win it last season so expect them to be highly motivated, they return 76% of their production overall, and had the best offensive efficiency in the nation, scored 45.7PPG (1st) and averaged 561.5YPG (1st).

Above all, the Buckeyes defense will need to be better in they want to win the National Championship as they allowed 336YPPG which was 52nd while allowing 22.8PPG (31st).

Ohio State is +$300 to win the National Championship but that is not enough to warrant an investment now.

Worth a look is Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud as the potential Heisman winner (+250) Stroud completed nearly 71% of his passes for over 3,800 total yards with 38 TD’s to only 5 INT’s last season and will put up huge number again this season.

BIG 10 CHAMPION – LONGSHOT – Wisconsin Badgers +1200

Going back to 2011 the Badgers have made it to the Big Ten Championship game 6 times, the same as Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 5 titles, the Badgers 2.

QB CONCERNS:

QB Graham Mertz is undoubtably the biggest question for the Badgers heading into the season, but he was solid in the spring.

Mertz will have to be much better this season after throwing 10 INT’s to 9 TD’s a year ago. Wisconsin ranked 52nd in OEFF, had the 18th best rushing YPG average at 210.8RYPG, but ranked 117th in passing YPG at 160.2PYPG. Behind Mertz is Chase Wolf a redshirt senior.

BADGER GROUND ATTACK: Top 22 in 4 of the past 5 seasons

Wisconsin may have the best running back in the country in Braelon Allen 1,268 rushing yards on a 6.8 YPA average with 12 TD’s last season. (RB trio includes: Mellusi, Guerendo). The have depth on the offensive line which are historically Wisconsin’s strength.

BADGER DEFENSE:

The defense under Jim Leonard will again be one of the best in the nation. Wisconsin allowed 7 or fewer points in 5 of 13 games and 16pts or less in 9 games and gave up just 16.2PPG which was 3rd best in CFB.

The Badger’s defense was 3rd in defensive efficiency a year ago, 1st in yards per play allowed at 4.0YPPL and allowed just 65.4 rushing yards per game which ranked 1st in the nation.  Wisconsin did a great job of keeping opposing offenses off the field, ranking 4th in Opponents 3rd down conversions per game at 3.8.

BADGERS HOME DOMINANCE:

The Badgers are 61-11 SU at home since 2011 and they’ve won those games by an average of 21.4PPG. The only Big Ten team with a better home record in that span is Ohio State at 68-6 (+26.1PPG).

In the last ten years the Badgers have the 11th best overall record at 104-39, +14.4PPG. The only Big 10 team with a better record in that same time frame is Ohio State at 123-20, +20.2PPG.

BIG TEN OVER/UNDER PREDICTION:

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS OVER 7.5 WINS – Purdue (9-4 SU last year) was top 31 in both DEFF and OEFF per footballoutsiders and return 70% of their production from last year’s squad. They have a favorable schedule and don’t face Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State this season and get Penn State and Iowa at home. The Boilermakers have a great QB in Aidan O’Connell who threw for over 3,700 yards last season with a 23-8 TD/INT ratio and he should put up big numbers again in 2022-23.

Posted on by

ASA MLB picks today – Brewers Total

ASA play on: UNDER 7.5 RUNS Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers, 2:10PM ET

It starts with pitching here with two solid starters slated to take the mound for each team. Lefty Jeffrey Springs will take the hill for the Rays with a 4-3 record, 2.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the season. The Brewers will counter with Brandon Woodruff who is 9-3 on the season with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Woodruff has allowed just 6 earned runs in his last 23.3 innings of work with 24 strikeouts. At home Woodruff is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Both teams are 17th or worse in team batting average with Milwaukee hitting .240 as a team while the Rays hit .239. The Brewers do average 4.70 runs per 9/innings which is one of the higher averages in baseball but the Rays average 4.14 runs/9 innings which is 22nd. Milwaukee hits just .220 as a team against left-handed pitchers and scored 3.88 runs/9 innings. Tampa hits jut .233 against righties and score 4.26 runs/9 innings. Both teams are also trending in the wrong direction in their last ten games facing the designated handed pitchers.  We don’t see many runs being scored in this day game in Milwaukee.

Posted on by

Point Train NFL Predictions – 2022-23

POINT TRAIN PREDICTIONS – all odds found at FanDuel

NFC WINNER – Green Bay Packers +500

The Packers have rolled to an impressive 39-10 regular season record the last 3 seasons which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period.  The defense should be one of the best in the NFL this year.  Green Bay is loaded in the defensive backfield and it could be argued they have three #1 corners with Alexander, Stokes and Douglas.  If they can shore up their run defense this will be tough to beat.  Because of that, the offense may not have to do as much as previous seasons.  QB Rodgers lost some key weapons in the passing game but others have stepped up in early practices and he tends to make all of his receivers look good.  The running game will be among the best in the league as well with the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon.  The Packers have won the NFC North in 8 of the last 11 seasons and we expect them to come out on top in the division again this year.  They’ve come up short in the NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 seasons and we think they have a great shot to get over the hump this year. 

NFC LONGER SHOT – New Orleans Saints +1700

The Saints roster is loaded with talent.  It’s one of the best in the NFL.  Their defense last year was very good finishing in the top 5 in PPG, YPG, and YPP allowed.  Their offensive weapons are as good as any in the league with RB Kamara (suspension possible?) and WR’s Thomas (back from injury), Landry and rookie Olave.  Can QB Jameis Winston play well enough to get this team to the playoffs?  That’s they only question we have with this team.  If Winston plays well, the Saints should be very good.  Tampa remains the only other formidable team in the division and New Orleans has owned the Bucs beating them 7 straight times in the regular season, including 4-0 facing Brady at QB. 

AFC WINNER – Buffalo Bills +400

The Bills have lost in the AFC Divisional or Championship game in each of the last 2 seasons.  Both losses were versus the Chiefs including a 42-36 setback in OT to get to the AFC Title game last season.  If you remember Buffalo took a 3 point lead in that game with just 13 seconds remaining the Chiefs were able to tie it in regulation and win in OT.  Despite coming up short, the Bills were the best team in the NFL for the entirety of the season.  They led the NFL in point differential and yards per play differential, both by a wide margin.  All 12 of their wins came by more than 10 points and 6 of their 7 losses came by a TD or less with 2 coming in OT.  The defense led the NFL allowing just 18 PPG and in yards per play allowed at just 4.8.  The offense should be great this year with QB Allen working with some high end weapons again this season.  If the offensive line can improve just a bit, watch out.  The AFC East is a fairly weak and the Bills are definitely the class of the division.  Buffalo finally gets to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC LONGER SHOT – Indianapolis Colts +1200

The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year and they sit in one of the weakest divisions in football, the AFC South.  Houston and Jacksonville are projected to be 2 of the worst teams in the NFL once again and Tennessee had the lowest point differential of any team that won their division.  Despite finishing 2nd last year, the Colts point differential was 21 points better than the Titans.  An upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan should help significantly as Wentz was a disaster last season.  We project Indianapolis to win the division this year and at 12/1 they are not a bad investment to win it all.

SUPER BOWL WINNER – Buffalo Bills +650

Posted on by

Green Bay Packers Total Win prediction 2022

By ASA – Green Bay Packers Total Win Prediction 2022 – OVER 10.5 WINS

Did you know Green Bay has the 2nd most overall victories at 782 in league history? The Packers are going to add to that win total this season with 11 or more wins. Scheduling has a lot to do with it as they play in a weak NFC North Division.

No other team in the NFC North had a winning record last season and only Minnesota has had a winning record in the past three years.

                               2021       2020       2019

Vikings                 8-9          7-9          10-6

Bears                     6-11       8-8          8-8

Lions                      3-13-1   5-11       3-12

The Vikings and Bears have new coordinators in place and are completely changing their defensive schemes so expect slow starts for both. We do expect the Lions to be improved this season, but they are not a threat to Green Bay at the top of the Division.

Looking closer at those three other NFC North teams, none were in the top half of the league in overall (offensive/defensive) efficiency stats. The Packers were 8th overall in the NFL.

The Packers have won 13 games the previous three seasons with an average Margin of Victory at Plus +5.1PPG. Last year the Pack won 13 regular season games and the last game of the year versus Detroit was a meaningless loss.

Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home with a 22-2 SU at home the previous three seasons so expect another 7 or 8 victories as the home team (one game against the Giants is in London).

Last season they owned a top 10 defense and expectations they’ll be better this year even with the loss of ZaDarius Smith (Vikings). The Packers drafted two Georgia (#1 in NCAA last year in D) defensive players (Walker, Wyatt) who expect to make an immediate impact.

The rushing offense was below or around league average in most key rushing categories, but it should be one of the better units in the NFL with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion toting the football.

The Packers WR’s will be a question mark with the loss of Adams but they still have capable receivers in: Lazard, Cobb and Sammy Watkins. They drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who has had outstanding preseason camp and is our longshot offensive rookie of the year bet at 100-1. The question we ask is this: Do the wide receivers need to great for Aaron Rodgers or does Rodgers throw those guys open? In the last three years Rodgers has 12,416 total passing yards, 111 TDs / 13 INT’s and a 72% completion percentage.

The Packers were underdogs just 4 times last season and won all 4. We have them favored in 14 of their games this season and would predict losses at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Other than those two teams the Packers face a very winnable schedule which ranks 22nd in SOS this season.

We like Green Bay to win more than 11 games.

Posted on by

ASA Detroit Lions Wins prediction – 2022

Be sure to check out all the winning options ASA has to offer you this football season. Let over 60 combined years of handicapping experience work for you this year. MORE INFO HERE…

ASA – OVER 6.5 WINS Detroit Lions 2022

The schedule is much easier this season ranking 23rd overall – last season they played one of the tougher schedules in the league and only won 3 games. The Lions start with a relatively easy slate and winnable games versus Philly and Washington at home, then go to Minnesota, then host Seattle who lost QB Wilson and is in for a down season. Detroit could realistically be 2-2, 3-1 or maybe even 4-0 at this point of the season. They also have winnable games versus: Miami (9-8), the Bears (twice) at the Giants, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, the Jets and Panthers who had a combined 53 wins last season.

The Lions should be much better offensively with the addition of WR’s St Brown and DJ Chark. They feature a solid running back duo of Swift and Williams and QB Goff should be much better in year two under Dan Campbell.

The team lost two starting offensive linemen to injury early on in Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow but had a top 5-win rate at the line of scrimmage when all five starters were healthy. Other injuries took their toll as they lost receivers Quintez Cephus and Tyrell Williams, who were both projected as starters. Defensively the secondary was depleted due to injuries to Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Detroit lost six one possession games last season, including three games on last second field goals by the opposing team. The fact that they were 11-6 ATS tells us they were undervalued last season and should make a big step forward this season.

Last season Statistics

Offense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards322.622
Passing Yards211.618
Rushing Yards110.919
Points Scored19.125
Turnovers2319
Defense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards379.829
Passing Yards244.724
Rushing Yards135.128
Points Scored27.531
Takeaway1919