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NBA free bet + NBA prop bet – Friday, Nov 11th

ASA play on: OVER 229 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40PM ET

No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER!

ASA play on OVER 19.5 POINTS Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs (As of this posting 20-5 on NBA Player Props)

The Bucks are without their two best defenders tonight as Giannis and Holiday are both out. Holiday is key to this wager as he would more than likely defend Vassell. The Bucks are the 3rd worst team in the NBA in points allowed per game to shooting guards at 25.26. Vassell has scored 20 or more points in 6 of his last seven games and is averaging 20.88PPG on the season. This is an easy OVER call on Vassell and his points scored.

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NBA free wager – Suns vs. Wolves, Nov 9th

NBA free wager by ASA – UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

ASA play on: #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET

ASA NBA pick. In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER for this NBA pick!

ASA player prop OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs – Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers

The Hornets are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA so Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Charlotte also ranks 23rd in the league in points in the paint allowed at 52. Nurkic is averaging 13PPG and 11.2RPG but we expect him to exceed those expectations given the opponent they Blazers are facing tonight. On average, Charlotte allows 42.91 Pts+Rebs per game which is the second highest total in the NBA. To similar centers to Nurkic (Valancunius, Capela, Sabonis, Vucevic, Adams and Porzingis) the Hornets have allowed an average of 30.33 Pts+Rebs. Nurkic has had two straight lower output games but they came against the Suns and Heat who are better than the Hornets defensively when it comes to centers. Easy Over call here.

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College Football free wager – Nov 5th

ASA PLAY ON #392 UL Lafayette +4.5 over Troy, Saturday 5 PM ET

College Football free wager: We think we’re getting some solid value here with the home dog.  Last year ULL was favored by -6.5 AT Troy and now this year they are getting +4.5 at home.  So technically we’re talking about at least a 17 point swing in one year if we factor in home field advantage.  That’s too much.  ULL is coming off a loss which helped this line, however it was a deceiving loss @ Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles won 39-24 vs ULL who was favored by -2.5 on the road in that game.  The Ragin Cajuns outgained USM by 100 yards in that loss but had 4 turnovers and the Eagles had a defensive TD and a safety in the game.  Prior to that loss ULL was coming off back to back double digit wins vs Arkansas State and Marshall.  At home this season the Cajuns are 3-1 with their only loss coming by 3 points vs a South Alabama who we have rated dead even with Troy.  The Trojans are on a nice 5 game winning streak, however they struggle offensively at times (76th in total offense and 120th in rushing) so they often win close games when they do win.  In that 5 game winning streak they have scored 17 points or fewer 3 times and 4 of those 5 winning margins were single digits.  If we throw out Troy’s game vs FCS Alabama A&M their average score this season is 20.2 – 17.7 so only +2.5 PPG.  ULL has an extremely strong home field advantage winning 22 of their last 25 as a host dating back to the 2018 season.  Troy hasn’t laid points on the road in this series since 2011 and we feel the Cajuns have a solid shot at the upset here as our free pick.  Take the points with ULL as our free pick today.

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NBA free bet – Friday, Nov 4th

ASA Player Prop OVER 22.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Evan Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers

As of this posting ASA is on an INCREDIBLE 15-3 START TO THE NBA SEASON ON PLAYER PROPS! YOU GET GET THEM DAILY FOR LESS THAN 10-BUCKS HERE!

This is a bargain and one of the strongest Player Props we’ve seen this season thus far. The Pistons are the worst team in the league when it comes to points+rebounds allowed to power forwards this season. On average, PF’ have totaled 38.53 Pts+Rebs per game against Detroit. Mobley is in line for a big game against Detroit tonight as the Cavs may be without either PG Darius Garland and or Donovan Mitchell which means more offensive opportunities. Mobley is averaging 21.86 Pts+Rebs this season and 23.3 in his last ten games. He has had 22 or more in four straight. Detroit is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, so this sets up favorably for Mobley to get to double-digits in both scoring and rebounding.

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NBA free bet | Nov 3rd

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10PM ET

The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

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