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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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Big 10 Betting Breakdown | Sept 2nd Recaps

BIG 10 Betting Notes from Games played on SEPTEMBER 2nd – By ASA

NEBRASKA vs MINNESOTA (13-10 MINNESOTA WIN) – Minnesota scored 10 points in final 3:00 minutes to win by 3 / Nebraska with 4 turnovers – one in the endzone going into score and 2 others that led directly to 10 Minnesota points / Huskers averaged 5.2 YPP & Minnesota averaged 3.6 YPP / Huskers averaged 4.9 YPC and held Minnesota to 2.2 YPC / Nebraska QB Sims, transfer from Georgia Tech, had 11 pass completions and 3 interceptions

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs MICHIGAN STATE (31-7 MSU WIN) – Big 10 Betting notes. The score was 10-7 at half / MSU outgained CMU by +3.0 YPP (6.3 YPP to 3.3 YPP) / Teams combined for just 8 of 32 on 3rd and 4th down / Spartans defense held CMU scoreless and just 63 total yards on the 2nd half

EAST CAROLINA vs MICHIGAN (30-3 MICHIGAN WIN) – ECU’s only points came on a FG as time expired / Michigan played without head coach Harbaugh and OC Moore who were suspended / QB coach Campbell called plays / Harbaugh will miss the first 3 games and Moore is back next week / Score was 30-0 with just over 9:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter and Michigan didn’t score again / Could have been worse as 2 of Michigan’s final 3 possessions after taking a 30-0 lead ended in a missed FG and shutout on downs at the ECU 1 yard line

OHIO STATE vs INDIANA (23-3 OSU WIN) – IU with only 153 total yards on 2.8 YPP / Hoosiers new QB’s, Jackson and Sorsby with only 9 completed passes combined / IU crossed midfield 3 times in the game / OSU All American WR injured his shoulder in the first half and did not return / After averaging 44 PPG (2nd in the nation) and 491 YPG last season, the Buckeyes put up only 23 points on 380 total yards / New OSU QB McCord was 20 of 33 for 239 yards and 1 interception – his back up Brown only played a few snaps

WEST VIRGINIA vs PENN STATE (38-15 PSU WIN) – PSU HC Franklin obviously knew what the spread was – PSU had ball at WVU 5 yard line with only a few seconds remaining (up 31-15) and instead of taking a knee, they ran the ball in for a TD to cover the 21 point spread / PSU dominated outgaining West Virginia 7.3 YPP to 4.5 YPP / WVU defense did hold the potent Penn State rushing game to 145 yards on 35 carries – 4.2 YPC / New Nittany Lion QB Allar was 21 of 29 for 325 yards and 3 TD’s

BUFFALO vs WISCONSIN (38-17 WISCONSIN WIN)– Big Ten Betting notes on the Badgers and their new up tempo. air raid offense ran 71 plays on Saturday after averaging 66 plays per game (107th nationally) / The 71 offensive snaps in game 1 would have ranked UW right around 52nd in the nation last year / They ran the ball 40 times (314 yards) with 31 pass attempts (189 yards) as new OC Longo has said the offense is called “air raid” but he will take what the defense gives him and use what is working / Wisconsin’s opponent next week is Washington State and they ran 87 offensive plays under new OC who came over from Western Kentucky / Wisconsin led just 14-10 at half but scored points on 4 of their 5 second half possessions with the only other possession ending in an interception / Wisconsin averaged 7.1 YPP & Buffalo just 4.4 YPP

UTAH STATE vs IOWA (24-14 IOWA WIN) – Iowa won the game by 10 points but they were outgained 329 to 284 (4.5 YPP to 4.1 YPP) and outrushed 116 to 88 (4.8 YPC to 2.2 YPC) / New QB McNamara was 17 of 30 for 191 yards and 2 TD’s / Iowa scored 14 points on their first 2 possessions and they just 10 points on their final 10 possessions / Hawkeyes had 156 yards on 7.4 YPP on their first 3 possessions and then averaged only 3.4 YPP after that / Over their final 10 possessions, Iowa had only 2 that lasted more than 6 plays and they punted 7 times / on a sidenote, OC Brian Ferentz has a clause in his contract that if Iowa averages 25 PPG or more and wins at least 7 games, he gets a fairly large bonus – they put up only 24 on USU so not a great

FRESNO STATE vs PURDUE (39-35 FRESNO WIN) – Purdue led 28-17 with 7:00 remaining in the third quarter and Fresno then scored TD’s on 3 of their last 4 possessions / Fresno outgained Purdue 487 to 363 but the Bulldogs also ran 82 offensive plays to just 60 for Purdue – so Boilers actually outgained FSU 6.0 YPP to 5.9 YPP / One of Purdue’s TD’s was a 98 yard kickoff return / Purdue’s new QB Card, transfer from Texas, was 17 of 30 for 254 yards and 2 TD’s / Fresno’s first lead of the game came in the 4th quarter and their game clinching TD came on a 22 yard pass with 59 seconds remaining in the game

TOLEDO vs ILLINOIS (30-28 ILLINOIS WIN) – Toledo won the MAC Championship last season / Toledo outgained Illinois 416 to 374 bur also ran 18 more offensive plays so the Illini actually outgained the Rockets by nearly 1.0 YPP (6.1 to 5.2) / One of the Illini’s TD’s was a 48 yard pick 6 and their game winning FG came with 5 seconds remaining in the game / New Illinois QB Altmyer, transfer from Ole Miss, was 18 of 26 for 211 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 interception / Toledo had a conversion rate of 53% on 3rd & 4th down (9 of 17)

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NFC East prediction | Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins

NFC EAST Prediction on the Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins in 2023

NFL WIN TOTAL – OVER 6.5 WINS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +110

The number on the Commanders opened at 7.5 wins at several shops (even 8.5 at a few) but was bet down to the current O/U of 6.5 with plus money. We like the value now and will bet Washington Over 6.5 wins and would even consider Over 7.5 wins at plus +175. Washington has decided to start Sam Howell at quarterback after a failed experiment with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz in 2022. The Commanders won 8 games last season with a passing offense that was 21st in the NFL in yards per game and was 28th in passing DVOA. Howell will be an upgrade at that position if he plays as well as he did in the preseason where he was28 of 37, 75% completion rate for 265 yards with 3 TD’s and zero interceptions. Washington allowed just 20.2PPG last season which ranked 8th best in the NFL. The Commanders allowed 5.2 Yards Per Play which was 10th best in the league and were 3rd overall in Yards Per Game allowed at 304.6YPG. Teams had a very tough time sustaining drives against the Commanders as they allowed foes to convert 3rd downs at a 31.90% which was best in the league. Teams had a tough time scoring TD’s in the Red Zone against the Commanders as they finished the 2022 season ranked 9th best in the NFL at 51.92%. Washington relied heavily on their running game with the 4th most rushing attempts in the league at 31.6. They averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game, which was 12th most. Granted, the Commanders play in the very tough NFC East, but they have a great defense, an upgrade at the QB position and should benefit from more fans support this season with Dan Snyder out as owner. Washington faces Arizona, Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants in the first seven weeks of the season and other than Buffalo and Philly they are all very winnable games. Over 6.5 wins for the Washington Commanders in the NFC East prediction.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS -108 – McLaurin has produced over 3,300 total receiving yards in three combined seasons and is only 1 of ten players to accomplish this impressive feat. His TD production is low considering the yardage, but he has caught 4, 5 and 5 TD’s in his last three seasons. His Red Zone targets have also been low considering his overall usage, but we are betting those change with new QB Sam Howell under center.

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NFC North Prediction | Bears Win Total

NFC NORTH Prediction – Chicago Bears UNDER 7.5 TOTAL WINS – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CHICAGO BEARS -122

The oddsmakers have set the Bears O/U win total at more than twice their number of wins from a season ago when they went 3-14. Has Chicago gotten that much better in the offseason? They lost ten straight games to close the season in 2022 and had the worst average margin of victory at minus -8.1PPG. Six of the Bears losses a season ago were by a touchdown or more. Chicago had a negative Yards Per Play differential at minus -0.8YPPL as they averaged 5.3YPPL but allowed 6.1YPPL. The Bears weren’t good on either side of the football with a defense that was 32nd in DVOA rankings and 25th in offensive DVOA. Chicago ranked 32nd defensively against the pass and 30th in stopping the run. Offensively it was only slightly better than defensively with the 30th ranked passing offense and the 25th rated rushing offense. Teams were able to sustain drives against the Bears as they were last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion defense allowing opponents to successfully convert 49.02% of their 3rd downs. Chicago QB Justin Fields was 15th in QBR last season and made more plays with his feet than his arm as he rushed over 1,143 yards last season which was 7th most in the NFL. The Bears were 30th in the league in passing yards per game at just 130.5. We can’t overlook the fact that the Bears play a soft schedule this season, but our expectations are the Packers and Vikings will be better than most experts anticipate. That means winning games in the NFC North Division will be tougher than expected. Our NFC North Predicted wins for Chicago is a max of 7 wins.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • JUSTIN FIELDS – OVER 800.5 RUSHING YARDS -112 – You may want to shop for the best number on this O/U as we’ve seen totals as high as 825.5 rushing yards for Fields this season. Last season Fields rushed for over 1,100 yards and was 7th in the league in rushing yards. That’s not just QB’s either, but the entire league. To put that into perspective he had more rushing yards than: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Tony Pollard just to name a few marquee running backs in the NFL. Fields averaged 7.1-yards per rush and he’ll produce plenty of big plays with his feet again in 2023.

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NFC South Prediction | Panthers Win Total

NFC SOUTH Prediction UNDER 7.5 WINS Carolina Panthers – Sept 5th 2023 – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CAROLINA PANTHERS -115

This is my least-liked NFL win total projection but in my opinion it’s the best of the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers have decided to ‘hitch their wagon’ to rookie QB Bryce Young as they’ve named him QB1 heading into the regular season. The 5-foot-10 200-pounder is undersized by today’s quarterback standards and even though he was a winner in college the transition to the NFL may not happen and will at a minimum take time. We didn’t see a lot of Young in the preseason but what we did see wasn’t overly impressive. He was 14 of 24 for less than 130 total yards and 1 TD. Carolina won 7 games last season in the NFC South but it will be tough to get to that number in 2023. In the South the Saints and Falcons are expected to be improved and Tampa still has a top 10’ish defense. The Panthers allowed 350.2YPG last season (22nd), 22PPG and 5.4-Yards Per Play which ranked them 17th in the NFL. Offensively the Panthers were 29th in the league in total yards per game at 306.2YPG. They averaged just 5.3-Yards Per Play (17th) and were last in the league when it came to converting 3rd downs at 3.8 per game. The Panthers had a net scoring differential of minus -1.6PPG (23rd). It doesn’t help that the Panthers have a below average offensive line by our metrics which will make life difficult for their rookie QB. The schedule isn’t terrible but the improvement by a couple of teams in the division will make it tough for the Panthers to get to 8 wins.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • BYRCE YOUNG UNDER 22.5 TOTAL PASSING TOUCHDOWNS -145 – This number opened 26.5 so we’ve lost some value but will still make an investment in this Under. Carolina was 12th in rushing attempts last season, were 13th in rushing TD’s per game and 10th in rushing TD percentage at 44.44%. Carolina was 28th in passing TD’s per game last season at 0.9 and 29th in passing touchdown percentage at 44.44%. The four QB’s for the Panthers last season threw 16 total touchdown passes. Don’t expect Young to get to 23.

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