ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET
The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it werenβt for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldnβt be here right now.
Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters. Β
The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we donβt feel itβs a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid.
Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th. New York won 3 of four against the Sixers this season and we expect them to win Game 1 on Saturday.
ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it werenβt for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldnβt be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shapeβ¦ Read more: NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt.β¦ Read more: NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th⦠Read more: NBA free prediction | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns | 4-3-24
ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1stβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Prediction | Celtics vs Hawks | 3-25-24
ASA NBA free pick on LA Clippers -6 at Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET We are on the Clippers as our NBA free bet for Thursday. The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the TβWolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago playedβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | Clippers vs Bulls | 3-14-24
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans
CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt. CJ will have to step up here against a Kings defense that ranks 21st in opponents FG% and 28th in opponents 3PT%. McCollum has scored more than his prop total in 7 of his last eight games and is inline for a big bounce back game here with Williamson on the shelf.Β
ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it werenβt for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldnβt be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shapeβ¦ Read more: NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt.β¦ Read more: NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th⦠Read more: NBA free prediction | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns | 4-3-24
ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1stβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Prediction | Celtics vs Hawks | 3-25-24
ASA NBA free pick on LA Clippers -6 at Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET We are on the Clippers as our NBA free bet for Thursday. The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the TβWolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago playedβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | Clippers vs Bulls | 3-14-24
So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.
The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000βs. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.
The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.153 points scored/allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.232 points per possessions while the Minnesota Timberwolves held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.090 points allowed per/possession. If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.
This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.Β The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.
Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.
NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:
2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)
2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)
2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)
2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)
2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)
2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)
2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)
2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF 5th, DEFF = 13th)
EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER
You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last fifteen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It has been the last two Champs in the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets last season.Β Every team that has won a Championship in the past 15 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season.Β
Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this yearβs Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. On the outside looking in is Philadelphia who we know played a portion of the season without an MVP type player in Joel Embiid. The Sixers were 13th in OEFF and 11th in DEFF this season. Another team who we pegged prior to the start of the season at +2500 to win it all, who falls outside of this parameter, is the Mavericks. The Mavs rank 10th in OEFF on the season but donβt qualify defensively, ranking 18th in DEFF for the year. But, since the All-Star break the Mavs defense has been infinitely better, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP.
2023-24 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”
Boston Celtics: OEFF 1st, DEFF 3rd
Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 4th
Denver Nuggets: OEFF 5th, DEFF 8th
NY Knicks: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th
New Orleans Pelicans: OEFF 11th, DEFF 7th
Phoenix Suns: OEFF 9th, DEFF 13th
Letβs also take into consideration how these teams fared this season against the other top 16 teams in the league.
Celtics 27-14 SU
Thunder 27-18 SU
TβWolves 26-19 SU
Nuggets 28-18 SU
Knicks 17-23
Suns 23-22
Intriguing options not on the list! – Dallas Mavericks (+1600) or Los Angeles Clippers (+1600)
As we mentioned above the Mavericks would make this list if we tabulated stats from the All-Star break on. Dallas made some moves prior to the trade deadline and brought in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford which improved their defense dramatically. Offensively this team has two of the best players on the planet, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who can each single-handedly take over a game on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers go as far as a healthy Kawhi Leonard can take them. Unfortunately, we donβt know Leonardβs status but βPlayoff Kawhiβ is as good as any player historically in the NBA in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with All-Star level talent with Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook along with Leonard and it wouldnβt surprise us to see them in the Finals. The Clippers ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency this season but were 16th defensively.
Our Money is on the favorite…BOSTON CELTICS *We had Boston prior to the start of the season at +380*
Everyone talks about a βBig 3β when it comes to NBA Super Teams, but you could argue that the Celtics have a βBig 5β with a starting lineup that includes: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Letβs not forget to mention the Celtics bench with Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard, just to name a few, who helped Boston have the best bench Net Rating in the NBA at +6.2.
As we previously mentioned, the Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. The Celtics had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. Boston won at home by an average of +15.2PPG and had a road average differential of +7.5PPG, all best MOVβs in the league. The Celtics have the advantage of home court throughout the Playoffs where they were near unbeatable. They were 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. Boston may not have to face either Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals, and even though the Knicks qualify for an Efficiency Championship, we donβt think they are deep enough to beat the Celtics in a 7-game series.Β
Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.
ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it werenβt for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldnβt be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shapeβ¦ Read more: NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt.β¦ Read more: NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th⦠Read more: NBA free prediction | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns | 4-3-24
ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1stβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Prediction | Celtics vs Hawks | 3-25-24
ASA NBA free pick on LA Clippers -6 at Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET We are on the Clippers as our NBA free bet for Thursday. The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the TβWolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago playedβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | Clippers vs Bulls | 3-14-24
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET
Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans.
Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important.
The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG.
When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits as this NBA free pick.
ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it werenβt for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldnβt be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks alsoβ¦ Read more: NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt. CJ will have to step up here against a Kingsβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their⦠Read more: NBA free prediction | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns | 4-3-24
ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1st half is best in the NBA at +8.2PPG overall &β¦ Read more: NBA Free Prediction | Celtics vs Hawks | 3-25-24
ASA NBA free pick on LA Clippers -6 at Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET We are on the Clippers as our NBA free bet for Thursday. The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the TβWolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago played last night in Indianapolis making this the second night ofβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | Clippers vs Bulls | 3-14-24
ASA Free NBA bet on OVER 236 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET These two teams met in Milwaukee in mid-January and produced 285 total points in OT. The oddsmakers had set an O/U number of 247 on that game. Both teams shot 52% overall, and 41% (Kings), 47% (Bucks) from beyond the arc which are also well above season each teamβs season average.β¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | March 12th 2024 | Bucks vs Kings prediction
#688 ASA PLAY ON Wake Forest -3.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 6 PM ET Free college bet today from ASA. An absolute must win here for Wake at home and they are squarely on the bubble and out right now by most bracketologists. A loss here would most likely end their dreams of getting invited to the Big Dance. Add to that the fact the⦠Read more: Free College Basketball Bet | 3-9-24 | Wake Forest vs Clemson
ASA FREE play on Golden State Warriors -4 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET **ONLY IF GIANNIS IS OUT TONIGHT** The NBA free pick today. This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6β¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | 3-6-24 | Bucks vs Warriors
Free pick today from ASA – GeorgiaΒ +3 over Florida – Saturday at 1 PM ET These same 2 teams played a few weeks agoΒ @ Florida and Gators won in OT and Gators wereΒ +8 FT’s made yet still almost lost. There is a big difference in home/road splits as Florida is 2-4 SU on the road this season and Georgia 11-3 at home. When it comesβ¦ Read more: Free College Bet today β Georgia vs. Florida, 2-17-24
#718 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers vs Northwestern Prediction, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET ASA BET: RUTGERS -3.5 vs Northwestern – Rutgers is peaking right now to say the least having won 3 in a row, 2 of those wins on the road, and in their most recent game on Saturday they rolled Wisconsin, one of the top teams in the Big 10, by 22 points.Β β¦ Read more: Free College Basketball Bet | 2/15/24 | Rutgers vs Northwestern
ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET
If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season
The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1st half is best in the NBA at +8.2PPG overall & +7.4PPG on the road.
The Hawks are decimated with injuries right now with starters Trae Young (26.4PPG) and Jalen Johnson (16.1PPG) out here.
Atlantaβs average +/- in the first half ithis season s +1.4PPG.
In two meetings this season the Celtics have led by 4-points (ATL had both Young and Johnson in the lineup) and 13 points (no Johnson) versus the Hawks at the break.
You may want to consider OVER 116 in the 1st half of this game also as a NBA bet. In two meetings they scored 138 and 125 total points and both average more than this number for the season with games involving the Celtics averaging 118.4PPG in the 1st H and games involving the Hawks average 119.4PPG.
ASA’s NBA Free prediction – BOSTON CELTICS (-7) 1st Half / BOSTON/ATLANTA OVER 116 TOTAL POINTS FIRST HALF
ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it werenβt for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldnβt be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shapeβ¦ Read more: NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt.β¦ Read more: NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th⦠Read more: NBA free prediction | Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns | 4-3-24
ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1stβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Prediction | Celtics vs Hawks | 3-25-24
ASA NBA free pick on LA Clippers -6 at Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET We are on the Clippers as our NBA free bet for Thursday. The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the TβWolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago playedβ¦ Read more: NBA Free Bet | Clippers vs Bulls | 3-14-24
O.J. Simpson, the former football great who was accused of and ultimately acquitted of the brutal 1994 slayings of his ex-wife and her friend, has died, according to his family. He was 76.
"On April 10th, our father, Orenthal James Simpson, succumbed to his battle with cancer. Heβ¦