Tag: American Sports Analysts

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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024

Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props

Game Preview:

  • Date: October 6, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Analysis:

  • Dallas Cowboys (2-2): Coming off a narrow victory against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC East. However, they face significant challenges with key defensive players out, including Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. This could severely hamper their ability to pressure Justin Fields, making their pass defense particularly vulnerable.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers are riding high with Justin Fields at quarterback, showing improvement over last year’s performance. Their defense, traditionally one of the league’s best, is expected to exploit the Cowboys’ weakened defensive line. However, their recent loss against the Colts might be a concern, showing they’re not invulnerable.

Key Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points at home, reflecting their solid start and the Cowboys’ injury woes. This line movement from an initial 1.5 points indicates growing confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to cover against a decimated Cowboys defense.
  • Over/Under: Set at 44 points, the total reflects a game that might not see a high-scoring affair due to strong defensive play, especially from Pittsburgh, but with potential for the Steelers to exploit Dallas’s weakened defense.
  • Moneyline: Steelers are listed at -145 to win outright, showing a clear market preference for Pittsburgh, despite the public leaning towards Dallas in terms of bet volume.
  • Public Betting: Interestingly, while more bets are placed on the Cowboys to cover, the money is heavier on the Steelers, suggesting sharp bettors might see value in Pittsburgh covering or winning outright.

Trends and Predictions:

  • Cowboys: Their offense has been inconsistent, with Dak Prescott performing well but needing support from a struggling rushing game. The absence of key defensive players might force them to rely more on their passing game, which could be a problem versus this Steelers D that ranks 5th in completions allowed and 7th in completion percentage allowed.
  • Steelers: Justin Fields has been a revelation, with his dual-threat capabilities potentially exploiting the Cowboys’ defensive gaps. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups like this one, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0.

Betting Picks – Player props:

Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last two games against the Chargers and Colts with 245 and 312 passing yards. He attempted over 30 in both games indicating the coaching staff is gaining confidence in his throwing ability.

Steelers WR George Pickens could be a good bet for over his receiving yards (53.5), given his recent performance and the matchup. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0. Pickens is averaging 71 receiving yards per game.

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Miami Fl vs. California Prediction | Free Bet | 10-5-24

College Football Betting Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs. California Golden Bears Prediction

Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024Time: 10:30 PM PTLocation: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA 

Overview by ASA:

The Miami Hurricanes, riding a wave of offensive prowess and a 5-0 record, venture to the West Coast to face the California Golden Bears, who stand at 3-1 with a defense that has been the backbone of their season. This matchup pits Miami’s high-octane offense against Cal’s stingy defense, setting the stage for what could be one of the most intriguing games of Week 6.

Miami Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower:

Miami has been nothing short of explosive, averaging 49.4 points per game, ranking them second in the nation. Quarterback Cam Ward has been phenomenal, throwing for over 300 yards in every game this season, supported by a dynamic ground game led by backs like Damien Martinez. The Hurricanes’ ability to score from anywhere on the field has been their hallmark, often putting games out of reach early.

California’s Defensive Wall:

On the flip side, California’s defense has been the talk of the town, limiting opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, showcasing a unit that’s disciplined, aggressive, and very much in the conversation for elite defensive status. This defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, a testament to their ability to stifle offenses and keep games close.

The Betting Angle:

Spread: The line has been set at Miami -10.5, which reflects the bookmakers’ confidence in Miami’s offensive dominance. However, taking Cal +10.5 might be the smarter play here. The Golden Bears’ defense hasn’t faced an offense like Miami’s, but conversely, Miami hasn’t been challenged by a defense as formidable as Cal’s all season.

Why Bet on Cal +10.5:

Defensive Matchup: Cal’s defense will be the best Miami has seen this season. Their ability to generate turnovers (10 INTs, leading the nation) and their prowess against the run (3.2 yards per rush allowed) could keep Miami’s scoring under control more than expected.

Home Advantage: Playing in Berkeley, with its historically tough environment for visiting teams, could play into Cal’s hands. Cal as a home dog dating back to 2016 is 16-7-1 ATS, nearly 70% cover rate. Conversely, the Hurricanes are 9-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2018..

Offensive Awakening: Cal’s 9-points against Florida State in their last game is very misleading as the Bears put up 410 total yards of offense at 5.5 yards per play. Prior to the FSU game the Bears had scored 31,21 and 31-points.

Prediction:

While Miami’s high-powered offense could still put points on the board, expect Cal’s defense to make significant stands, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game than anticipated. If Cal’s offense finds any rhythm, covering the spread becomes increasingly likely. Coming off a loss two weeks ago and then a bye week, we like the Bears and the double-digits.

FREE Betting Pick: California +10.5.

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JAGUARS vs BILLS Preview | 9-23-24

Jaguars vs Bills preview

NFL Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills – September 22, 2024

Game Overview Jaguars vs Bills preview: The Jacksonville Jaguars, currently at 0-2, are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills, who have started the season with a perfect 2-0 record. This Monday Night Football clash on September 22, 2024, at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, presents a stark contrast in team momentum and expectations.

Team Analysis:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off two consecutive losses, the Jaguars are in dire need of a victory to kickstart their season. Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming, completing just over 50% of his passes with only one touchdown, indicating struggles in the passing game. However, the Jaguars have shown some promise in the run game, with notable performances by their running backs.
  • Buffalo Bills: The Bills have looked impressive, defeating their opponents convincingly. Josh Allen, despite the departure of Stefon Diggs, has managed the offense with poise, showcasing a balanced attack with both passing and running games. The defense has also stepped up, making Buffalo a formidable opponent at home.

Betting Odds: Jaguars vs Bills Preview

  • Spread: Bills -5.5
  • Moneyline: Bills -250, Jaguars +200
  • Over/Under: Set at 46, with the market showing a slight lean towards the under given the defensive performances, especially by Buffalo.

Injury Updates: From the information available, there haven’t been detailed reports directly from the game week, but general sentiment from posts and updates around the time suggests:

  • Bills: Concerns over how the offensive line might hold up, especially with mentions of backup tackles potentially playing, which could affect their run-first strategy against a struggling Jaguars offense.
  • Jaguars: No specific injury updates directly from the game week, but there’s an ongoing narrative around Trevor Lawrence needing to step up, which might imply pressure on him to perform regardless of physical condition.

Key Matchups to Watch:

  • Trevor Lawrence vs. Bills Defense: Lawrence needs to find his rhythm against a Bills defense that’s been effective at limiting big plays and quarterback mobility.
  • Bills’ Running Game vs. Jaguars’ Run Defense: If the Bills can establish their run game, it could dictate a game script where they control the clock, keeping the Jaguars’ offense off the field.

Predictions and Fan Sentiment: Fan sentiments and expert analyses seem to lean towards the Bills, citing their home advantage, offensive balance, and the Jaguars’ early season struggles. However, the Jaguars have historical success against Buffalo, which might give some hope to their supporters.

The game could very well hinge on whether the Jaguars can muster an offensive performance to upset the expectations or if the Bills continue their dominant start to the season, potentially covering the spread with a strong defensive showing.

Conclusion: This matchup is critical for the Jaguars to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole, while for the Bills, it’s another opportunity to solidify their position as AFC contenders. Betting markets and fan are showing a cautious optimism around the Bills, but underdogs in the NFL have the Books taking some buy back on the Jags.

Check out other betting previews here on ASAwins.com

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