Tag: American Sports Analysts

Posted on by

NFL Wild Card Free Bet – Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans – Saturday, Jan 13

#141/142 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

These 2 met in Houston a few weeks ago and the total was set at 40.5 as Texans QB Stroud was injured and not able to play in that one.  Despite that, Houston still put up 22 points and lost the game 36-22 which went way over the total.  Houston struggled for much of the game which was to be expected with Stroud out.  Cleveland, on the other hand, tallied over 400 yards and had opportunities to put up more than the 36 points they posted.  They were shut out on downs twice in Houston territory and only had to punt 3 times in the game.  Browns QB Flacco threw for 368 yards and 3 TD’s as they struggled to run the ball vs a very good Houston rush defense.  Look for Cleveland to have success and air it out again on offense.  Their defense has been night and day in their home vs away splits.  The Browns allow +115 more total YPG on the road and while they only give up 14 PPG at home, on the road that jumps to 30 PPG!  Their road games average 54 total points this season.  Houston’s offense has been much better at home averaging 370 YPG and 25 PPG compared to putting up only 19 PPG on the road.  Stroud is back and healthy which will make a huge difference in their offense this time around vs Cleveland.  Both like to play fast ranking in the top 8 in tempo (seconds per play) and Cleveland has run the most offensive plays in the NFL this season.  In their meeting a few weeks ago the Browns ran 74 offensive snaps and Houston ran 66 for 140 total plays.  The NFL average per game is around 126.  No quit in either offense here no matter what the situation as this is obviously win or go home.  Over is the play. 

BEST PICKS TODAY

RECENT ARTICLES

Posted on by

NFL Playoff Future Bet – Passing Leaders – Point Train Consulting

NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting

Odds offered at Draftkings.com

MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS

NFC QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott +360

Brock Purdy +700

Jared Goff +750

Baker Mayfield +1600

Jalen Hurts +1700

Matt Stafford +2200

Jordan Love +3000

AFC QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen +500

Patrick Mahomes +550

Lamar Jackson +700

Tua Tagovaliloa +950

Joe Flacco +1200

CJ Stroud +2000

Mason Rudolph +3500

First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl.  That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.

Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.

Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts.  In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.

San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.

At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.

We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.

At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.

You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.

Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.

Brock Purdy +700

Dak Prescott +360

ON SALE PACKAGES

RECENT FREE BETS

Posted on by

NBA Free Bet | Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction | Dec 23rd

ASA’s NBA FREE BET play on Memphis Grizzlies +1 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:40PM ET

The Grizzlies are significantly better with Ja Morant on the floor as evidenced by their two wins with him back in the lineup. Today they face a Hawks team off a game last night in Miami. Atlanta is 5-13 SU their last 18 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -2.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Grizzlies have an average point differential of +5.1PPG when holding a rest advantage over their opponents and a 16-12 record. Atlanta took a hit when they lost up-and-coming Jalen Johnson and have just 3 wins in their last ten games. This is the Hawks 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days so fatigue will be a factor. Memphis has two quality wins over the Pelicans and Pacers in their last two games and the numbers have not caught up with them yet.

ON SALE BETS TODAY

OTHER RECENT FREE BETS

Posted on by

NFL FREE BET | GIANTS vs SAINTS prediction | December 17th

POINT TRAIN New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints – 1PM ET

WAGER – GIANTS +5.5

  • Tommy DeVito and the Giants find themselves in a 3-game winning streak and fresh off a convincing win over a Packers team that was surging up the standings.
  • A newfound ground game has made life much easier for DeVito and the passing game which makes their offense that much tougher to defend. NY is averaging 5.0-Yards Per Rush in their last three games, up from their season average of 4.1.
  • DeVito has been efficient and a game manager. In 3 games he’s 52/73 for 595 total yards with 5 TD’s to 0 INT’s.
  • The Saints defense has been in a steady decline allowing 5.3-Yards Per Play in their last three games. Prior to facing the pathetic Panthers offense last week, the Saints had allowed 27, 24 and 33 points in the three previous games.
  • The Giants defense has held 5 of their last eight opponents to 19 or less points.  
  • The Saints don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage with a 3-3 record and an average point differential of +0.2ppg.
  • Grab the points with the G-Men

OTHER GREAT PACKAGES

RECENT FREE BETS

    Posted on by

    Free Bet | Oklahoma State vs Texas Prediction | Dec 2

    #310 ASA FREE PLAY ON Texas TEAM TOTAL Over 34.5 Points (vs Oklahoma State), Saturday at 12 PM ET

    There are some 35’s and 35.5’s posted as well but 34.5 is still available as some sportsbooks.  We like the Longhorns to score at least 35 points in this game so we’re taking Texas OVER their TEAM TOTAL which is currently set at 34.5.  One key to this game is Texas absolutely needs style points so we expect them to keep scoring even if they do get a big lead (favored by 15 points).  They will most likely be one of many 1 loss teams fighting for a spot in the CFP Final 4.  The Horns already showed last week they’re fine with running up the score at this point beating Texas Tech 57-7 while scoring their final TD with just over 30 seconds remaining in the game.  They should be very successful on offense here facing an Okie State defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed.  The OSU defense will have to pick their poison here as Texas is very balanced averaging 189 YPG rushing and 272 YPG passing.  The Longhorn offense has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and in many of those they had big leads and no incentive to keep scoring which they do here.  They’ve also scored at least 35 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings vs Oklahoma State.  Perfect conditions with this game being played inside at the Cowboys home field.  Over 34.5 Points for Texas in this game is our play. 

    ON SALE PACKAGE

    RECENT FREE PICKS