Tag: American Sports Analysts

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NFL Prop Bets | Bijan Robinson | Sept 16th 2024

ASA 2 free player prop bets – Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson

OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta attempted the 3rd most rushing attempts per game in 2023 at 30.7. In the opener against the Steelers the Falcons fed Robinson 18 times for 68 yards. He also had 43 receiving yards on 7 targets. Robinson obviously has breakaway or big play ability with two 30+ yards rushing plays and one 40+. He will face an Eagles defense that allowed 163 rushing yards at 7.8-yards per rush in the opener to the Packers. Last season the Eagles ranked 11th in rushing yards per game allowed and 19th in rushing yards per attempt. Philadelphia was 30th in passing yards allowed per game in 2023, giving up 255.7PYPG. Robinson has gone Over 100 total rushing/receiving yards in 5 of his last nine games. With the Falcons trying to protect an immobile QB Cousins we expect a heavy usage rate for Robinson here.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mystics vs Sky Prediction | Sept 11 2024

ASA WNBA free play on Washington Mystics +1 at Chicago Sky, 8PM ET

These two teams have near identical records with the Mystic 14-24 SU, the Sky are 13-22 SU. The Mystic though have been under-valued by the oddsmakers all season long with a 23-11-1 ATS record compared to the Sky who are 16-19 ATS.

Washington has played well of late with a 5-2 SU record their last seven games which includes several quality wins. The two losses in that stretch came to the Lynx and Sun who are two of the best four teams in the league. Also included in that stretch is a road win against this same Sky team with Angel Reese in the lineup for Chicago.

The Sky had lost 7 straight games prior to winning their last two against the Sparks and Wings. The most recent win was an upset as they were without Reese (injured out for the season) yet won 92-77 at home over the Wings as a +4-point dog.

Since the Olympic break the Mystics have played much better than the Sky with a Net rating of -1.8 compared to the Sky who have a Net rating of -5.2.

This will be a tight game but we like the Mystic to prevail by single-digits.

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NFL Prediction | NY Jets vs SF 49ers Preview | Sept 9 2024

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview for Monday Night Football – By ASA

NFL prediction Jets vs 49ers Game Overview: The NFL kicks off its 2024 season with a compelling matchup as the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. This game not only marks the beginning of the season but also the return of Aaron Rodgers for the Jets, aiming to erase the memory of last year’s four-snap season due to injury.

Betting Lines:

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Over/Under: 43.5 points

Moneyline: 49ers -198, Jets +165

Key Insights:

Public and Sharp Money: There’s significant public money on the 49ers, but sharp money has influenced the line movement towards the Jets, with the line movement from Jets +6 to +4.5

Injury Concerns: Christian McCaffrey’s health status for the 49ers is pivotal. If he plays, even not at 100%, his presence could significantly affect the game’s dynamics, potentially drawing defensive attention and opening up plays for other receivers like George Kittle. McCaffrey totaled over 2,000 total yards combined rushing and receiving in 2023.

Aaron Rodgers’ Return: Rodgers’ return adds an unpredictable element. His last full season showcased his ability to make big throws, which could challenge the 49ers’ defense, especially if the Jets’ young receiving corps steps up. The Jets RB Breece Hall rushed for 994 yards in 2023 at a 4.5-yards per carry average.

Defensive Matchup: The 49ers’ defense, despite some changes, remains formidable. However, the Jets’ defense, known for its tenacity, might give even the efficient Brock Purdy a run for his money. The Jets had the #3 rated DVOA defense a year ago, the 49ers were 4th.

Player Props:

George Kittle Over 42.5 Receiving Yards: Given his performance history and the matchup, this could be a safe bet if McCaffrey’s involvement is limited. Kittle averaged 60-receiving yards per game in 2023 and the Jets D allowed TE’s to average 48.5 receiving YPG.

Jake Moody Over 1.5 Field Goals: The Jets’ defense might force field goal attempts, making this a reasonable bet. Moody was 21/25 last season on FG’s and has range, hitting 2/3 from 50+ yards.

Jets vs 49ers prediction Conclusion: This game presents a unique betting opportunity due to Rodgers’ return and the 49ers’ position post-Super Bowl. Bettors should watch closely for any last-minute updates on McCaffrey’s status, as his participation could sway the game’s flow significantly.

Check out all the NFL predictions and betting previews ASA has to offer!

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CFB FREE BET | Sept 7 2024 | From ASA

#348 ASA CFB FREE BET ON Ole Miss -41.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET

CFB Free bet today from ASA. Ole Miss can name the score here and head coach Lane Kiffin has shown he’s not opposed to running up huge numbers on inferior opponents.  Last week the Rebels beat FCS Furman 76-0 and they took their foot slightly off the gas after leading 73-0 in the 3rd quarter. 

You might say well that’s Furman an FCS team but the Paladins have a very solid program and entered the year ranked in the top 15 in the FCS poll.  One trusted FBS / FCS power rating system, Jeff Sagarin, has Furman and this Middle Tennessee state team rated almost dead even.  The 76 point win wasn’t a turnover laced fluke as Furman had only 1 turnover in the game.  Ole Miss outgained the Paladins by a ridiculous +600 yards (772 to 172 total yards) and the Rebels had 37 first downs to just 7 for Furman. 

While Mississippi was destroying one of the better teams at the FCS level, MTSU was struggling at home to simply win a game vs one of the worst FCS programs, Tennessee Tech.  The Blue Raiders were outgained in that 32-25 win, had fewer first downs and needed a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to escape with a home win as a 24 point favorite. 

Tennessee Tech finished 4-8 last year and hasn’t won more than 4 games in any of the last 4 seasons.  For comparisons sake, this same Tennessee Tech team who almost beat MTSU last Saturday, played Furman last year (Mississippi’s opponent last week) and lost 45-10. 

The Blue Raiders are lost a ton of players from last year (just 7 starters back) and are working on new systems on both sides of the ball with new head coach Derek Mason. 

Heading to Oxford is not ideal for this MTSU team still trying to figure things out.  Unless Lane Kiffin decides to take it easy here, which he hasn’t in the past, this one will get really ugly and we like the Rebels as a CFB free bet.

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College Football Week 0 Previews | By ASA

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Betting Preview

THE GAME

Florida State (13-1 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Georgia Tech (7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 12 PM ET – @ Dublin, Ireland

THE LINES – Florida State (-10.5) / O/U [55.5] 

FLORIDA STATE OFFENSE – 32.8 PPG (23rd) / 392.2 YPG (54th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 12.0 YPPT (12th)

FSU OFFENSIVE NOTES  – FSU’s starting QB this year is DJ Uiagalelei who previously was the starter at Clemson and Oregon State / FSU is ranked 81st in returning offensive production per ESPN S&P+ / FSU lost top 2 WR’s Coleman & Wilson both to the NFL – new starting WR’s are transfers from Bama who had 162 yards receiving last year & LSU who did not play last year / The Seminoles return 4 starters on the offensive line and they’ve combined to start 190 career games which is 3rd most nationally.

FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE – 19.8 PPG (17th) / 340.2 YPG (31st) / 4.9 YPP (23rd) / 17.2 YPPT (12th)

FSU DEFENSIVE NOTES – FSU returns 5 starters on defense and loses 6 of their top 9 tacklers from last season / The Noles bring back 50% of their overall tackles from last season which is 95th in the country / Florida State lost 5 starters in their defensive front 7 but pulled in replacement transfers from Georgia (DE who had 12 tackles last season) and Auburn (LB who had 28 tackles last season) / FSU finished in the top 20 nationally in pass defense last year but outside the top 60 in rush defense.

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE – 29.7 PPG (43rd) / 411.8 YPG (36th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 13.9 YPPT (49th)

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSIVE NOTES – GT is ranked 7th in the nation in returning offensive production per ESPN SP+ / QB Haynes King is back after throwing for over 2800 yards and rushing for over 800 yards last season / Tech led the ACC in rushing last year averaging 198 YPG / The Jackets bring back 4 starting offensive linemen who have combined for 128 career starts (13th in the country) / They return 86% of their offensive yards from last year which is 11th most in the nation.

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE – 30.8 PPG (100th) / 449.3 YPG (123rd) / 6.2 YPP (118th) / 14.6 YPPT (58th)

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSIVE NOTES – Tech finished 130th last season (out of 133 teams) defending the run allowing 223 YPG on the ground / GT has new DC Tyler Santucci who came over from Duke so he has some familiarity with FSU / Santucci will mainly run an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme / His Duke defense finished 18th nationally last year allowing 20 PPG / The Yellow Jackets ranked 105th in returning defensive production per ESPN SP+ / The Tech defense allowed at least 400 total yards in 10 of their 13 games last year.

THE GAME

SMU vs. Nevada Betting Preview

SMU (11-3 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Nevada (2-10 SU & 6-6 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 8 PM ET

THE LINES – SMU (-24.5) / O/U [56]

SMU OFFENSE – 36.4PPG (10th) / 446.9YPG (18th) / 6.0YPP (37th) / 12.3YPPT (12th)

SMU OFFENSIVE NOTES –  8 returning starters including QB Stone. SMU’s offense will be led by quarterback Preston Stone, who returns from a late season injury last season, after throwing for nearly 3,200YDS w/28 TD’s to 6 INT’s. With a talented receiving corps (averaged 270.4PYPG / 30th in 2023) and a solid offensive line, the Mustangs are expected to put up big numbers through the air. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th).

SMU DEFENSE – 19.2PPG (14th) / 315.5YPG (14th) / 4.5YPP (7th) / 16.5YPPT (21st)

SMU DEFENSIVE NOTES – The Mustangs went from allowing 6.1YPP in 2022 to giving up just 4.5YPP in 2023 (7th). The defense returns 7 starters from last year’s unit that ranked top 21 in several key categories. SMU’s defense did a great job getting off the field by holding opponents to 4.1 3rd down conversions per game (13th).

NEVADA OFFENSE – 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th)

NEVADA OFFENSIVE NOTES – The Wolfpack have struggled in recent years, including last season when they won 2 games, leading to a coaching change and an overhauled roster. Nevada had the 124th worst average point differential per game of minus -15.1PPG. QB Brendon Lewis returns for the Wolfpack who threw for 1,313 yards with 2 TD/6 INT and a passer rating of 33.3 (117th). The running game is their strength with their top two rushers (Dollars & Bianco) returning. The offensive line allowed 3.8 sacks per game last season (127th) and didn’t provide the running backs many open holes as they averaged 3.3YPR (117th).  

NEVADA DEFENSE – 33.5PPG (114th) / 440.9YPG (118th) / 6.7YPP (131st) / 13.2YPPT (96th)

NEVADA DEFENSIVE NOTES – Head coach Jeff Choate has a solid background defensively and has his work cut out for him this season. The Wolfpack have two DL starters returning, along with their corps of linebackers. The secondary needs to be completely rebuilt and will be their defensive Achilles heel. Nevada allowed 348.5PYPG (96th), 64.7% completion percentage (111th) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (118th).

YPP = Yards Per Play, YPPT = Yards Per Point

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