Tag: American Sports Analysts

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College Football Week 0 Previews | By ASA

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Betting Preview

THE GAME

Florida State (13-1 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Georgia Tech (7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 12 PM ET – @ Dublin, Ireland

THE LINES – Florida State (-10.5) / O/U [55.5] 

FLORIDA STATE OFFENSE – 32.8 PPG (23rd) / 392.2 YPG (54th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 12.0 YPPT (12th)

FSU OFFENSIVE NOTES  – FSU’s starting QB this year is DJ Uiagalelei who previously was the starter at Clemson and Oregon State / FSU is ranked 81st in returning offensive production per ESPN S&P+ / FSU lost top 2 WR’s Coleman & Wilson both to the NFL – new starting WR’s are transfers from Bama who had 162 yards receiving last year & LSU who did not play last year / The Seminoles return 4 starters on the offensive line and they’ve combined to start 190 career games which is 3rd most nationally.

FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE – 19.8 PPG (17th) / 340.2 YPG (31st) / 4.9 YPP (23rd) / 17.2 YPPT (12th)

FSU DEFENSIVE NOTES – FSU returns 5 starters on defense and loses 6 of their top 9 tacklers from last season / The Noles bring back 50% of their overall tackles from last season which is 95th in the country / Florida State lost 5 starters in their defensive front 7 but pulled in replacement transfers from Georgia (DE who had 12 tackles last season) and Auburn (LB who had 28 tackles last season) / FSU finished in the top 20 nationally in pass defense last year but outside the top 60 in rush defense.

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE – 29.7 PPG (43rd) / 411.8 YPG (36th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 13.9 YPPT (49th)

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSIVE NOTES – GT is ranked 7th in the nation in returning offensive production per ESPN SP+ / QB Haynes King is back after throwing for over 2800 yards and rushing for over 800 yards last season / Tech led the ACC in rushing last year averaging 198 YPG / The Jackets bring back 4 starting offensive linemen who have combined for 128 career starts (13th in the country) / They return 86% of their offensive yards from last year which is 11th most in the nation.

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE – 30.8 PPG (100th) / 449.3 YPG (123rd) / 6.2 YPP (118th) / 14.6 YPPT (58th)

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSIVE NOTES – Tech finished 130th last season (out of 133 teams) defending the run allowing 223 YPG on the ground / GT has new DC Tyler Santucci who came over from Duke so he has some familiarity with FSU / Santucci will mainly run an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme / His Duke defense finished 18th nationally last year allowing 20 PPG / The Yellow Jackets ranked 105th in returning defensive production per ESPN SP+ / The Tech defense allowed at least 400 total yards in 10 of their 13 games last year.

THE GAME

SMU vs. Nevada Betting Preview

SMU (11-3 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Nevada (2-10 SU & 6-6 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 8 PM ET

THE LINES – SMU (-24.5) / O/U [56]

SMU OFFENSE – 36.4PPG (10th) / 446.9YPG (18th) / 6.0YPP (37th) / 12.3YPPT (12th)

SMU OFFENSIVE NOTES –  8 returning starters including QB Stone. SMU’s offense will be led by quarterback Preston Stone, who returns from a late season injury last season, after throwing for nearly 3,200YDS w/28 TD’s to 6 INT’s. With a talented receiving corps (averaged 270.4PYPG / 30th in 2023) and a solid offensive line, the Mustangs are expected to put up big numbers through the air. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th).

SMU DEFENSE – 19.2PPG (14th) / 315.5YPG (14th) / 4.5YPP (7th) / 16.5YPPT (21st)

SMU DEFENSIVE NOTES – The Mustangs went from allowing 6.1YPP in 2022 to giving up just 4.5YPP in 2023 (7th). The defense returns 7 starters from last year’s unit that ranked top 21 in several key categories. SMU’s defense did a great job getting off the field by holding opponents to 4.1 3rd down conversions per game (13th).

NEVADA OFFENSE – 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th)

NEVADA OFFENSIVE NOTES – The Wolfpack have struggled in recent years, including last season when they won 2 games, leading to a coaching change and an overhauled roster. Nevada had the 124th worst average point differential per game of minus -15.1PPG. QB Brendon Lewis returns for the Wolfpack who threw for 1,313 yards with 2 TD/6 INT and a passer rating of 33.3 (117th). The running game is their strength with their top two rushers (Dollars & Bianco) returning. The offensive line allowed 3.8 sacks per game last season (127th) and didn’t provide the running backs many open holes as they averaged 3.3YPR (117th).  

NEVADA DEFENSE – 33.5PPG (114th) / 440.9YPG (118th) / 6.7YPP (131st) / 13.2YPPT (96th)

NEVADA DEFENSIVE NOTES – Head coach Jeff Choate has a solid background defensively and has his work cut out for him this season. The Wolfpack have two DL starters returning, along with their corps of linebackers. The secondary needs to be completely rebuilt and will be their defensive Achilles heel. Nevada allowed 348.5PYPG (96th), 64.7% completion percentage (111th) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (118th).

YPP = Yards Per Play, YPPT = Yards Per Point

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FREE WNBA bet | Mercury vs Sky Prediction | 8-15-24

ASA’s FREE WNBA bet on Chicago Sky +2 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 8PM ET

Are you looking for a free WNBA bet today? We have you covered with a light bet on the Chicago Sky plus the points at home against Phoenix. The USA Olympic team featured three Mercury players, which means they could suffer from an emotional hangover against the Sky. Chicago was not represented in the Olympics, and their young roster has been home practicing since the break.

Only 3 wins separate these two teams with Chicago having the better overall Net Rating of -2.6 versus the Mercury’s -3.0. One glaring question here is why are the Mercury favored on the road vs. Chicago? Phoenix is the better overall offensive team, but the Sky hold the advantage defensively.

In a recent home game, the Sky were +3.5 points at home against a Liberty team that is one of the 4 best teams in the league. That makes this line high by that comparison.

We like Chicago to get this home win as our free WNBA bet on Thursday, August 15th. We won’t use this as a rated bet considering the Sky’s bad home underdog record and the Mercury’s strong road chalk numbers. It’s still worth a light play based on the circumstances though.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mercury at Storm | June 4th 2024

ASA’s WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm, 10PM ET

The Storm are the much better team when it comes to defense, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency versus a Mercury team that ranks 11th. Offensively both teams average over 1.000-points per possession with the Storm averaging 84.5PPG, the Mercury score 80.4PPG.

A big influence for the Over wager on this game will be the pace of play as the Storm are the 2nd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 80.2 possessions per game, the Mercury are 3rd at 80.

Phoenix scores the majority of their points from beyond the 3-point line with 38.1 3PA per game, most in the league. Seattle does their offensive damage from inside the Arc with the 5th best 2PT% in the WNBA and also crash the O-boards hard with the 4th most OREB per game at 12.2. The Mercury allow 84.4PPG on the season, the Storm allow 80.3PPG.

The pace of play should be frenetic and the added scoring opportunities for both teams will make this a very high scoring game.  

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NBA Playoffs Free Bet | May 7th 2024

ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET

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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.

We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.

Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.

Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.  

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NBA Finals Prediction – Efficiency Champion – 4/19/24

NBA Championships based on Math!

By – ASA

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.

The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.153 points scored/allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.232 points per possessions while the Minnesota Timberwolves held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.090 points allowed per/possession.  If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.

Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th) 

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)

2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)

2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF 5th, DEFF = 13th)

EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER

You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last fifteen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It has been the last two Champs in the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets last season.  Every team that has won a Championship in the past 15 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season. 

Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. On the outside looking in is Philadelphia who we know played a portion of the season without an MVP type player in Joel Embiid. The Sixers were 13th in OEFF and 11th in DEFF this season. Another team who we pegged prior to the start of the season at +2500 to win it all, who falls outside of this parameter, is the Mavericks. The Mavs rank 10th in OEFF on the season but don’t qualify defensively, ranking 18th in DEFF for the year. But, since the All-Star break the Mavs defense has been infinitely better, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP.

2023-24 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 1st, DEFF 3rd

Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 4th

Denver Nuggets: OEFF 5th, DEFF 8th

NY Knicks: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th

New Orleans Pelicans: OEFF 11th, DEFF 7th

Phoenix Suns: OEFF 9th, DEFF 13th 

Let’s also take into consideration how these teams fared this season against the other top 16 teams in the league. 

Celtics 27-14 SU

Thunder 27-18 SU

T’Wolves 26-19 SU

Nuggets 28-18 SU

Knicks 17-23

Suns 23-22

Intriguing options not on the list! – Dallas Mavericks (+1600) or Los Angeles Clippers (+1600) 

As we mentioned above the Mavericks would make this list if we tabulated stats from the All-Star break on. Dallas made some moves prior to the trade deadline and brought in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford which improved their defense dramatically. Offensively this team has two of the best players on the planet, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who can each single-handedly take over a game on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers go as far as a healthy Kawhi Leonard can take them. Unfortunately, we don’t know Leonard’s status but “Playoff Kawhi” is as good as any player historically in the NBA in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with All-Star level talent with Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook along with Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise us to see them in the Finals. The Clippers ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency this season but were 16th defensively. 

Our Money is on the favorite…BOSTON CELTICS *We had Boston prior to the start of the season at +380*

Everyone talks about a “Big 3” when it comes to NBA Super Teams, but you could argue that the Celtics have a “Big 5” with a starting lineup that includes: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Let’s not forget to mention the Celtics bench with Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard, just to name a few, who helped Boston have the best bench Net Rating in the NBA at +6.2.  

As we previously mentioned, the Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. The Celtics had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. Boston won at home by an average of +15.2PPG and had a road average differential of +7.5PPG, all best MOV’s in the league. The Celtics have the advantage of home court throughout the Playoffs where they were near unbeatable. They were 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. Boston may not have to face either Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals, and even though the Knicks qualify for an Efficiency Championship, we don’t think they are deep enough to beat the Celtics in a 7-game series. 

Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.

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