Tag: American Sports Analysts

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ASA MLB free bets Guardians vs White Sox

ASA MLB free bets or player prop: OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS Shane Bieber – Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox, 6:10PM ET

ASA MLB free bets for August 20th. In his last ten starts, Bieber is averaging 6.5 K’s per game. He has been especially good of late with 30 K’s in his last four starts. His pitch-count is typically in the high 90’s so he’ll get plenty of opportunities today in this MLB game. Bieber has a high strikeout to innings pitched ratio in his career and currently sits at 140 K’s in 138.7 innings this season. The White Sox are 7th best in baseball in the fewest strikeouts per game at (7.90). If we look at recent results though this lineup has struggled in August. In the last 15-days the White Sox have struck out 118 times in 476 plate appearances. That is 10th most in the league over that stretch of MLB games. In their last ten games against righties, they have averaged 6.6 K’s per game. Clearly, we have favorable trends working in our favor here with a hot pitcher and a team swinging and missing. ASA’s MLB free bets is on Over 5.5 K’s for Bieber in this MLB game.

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ASA MLB prediction White Sox vs. Tigers

ASA player prop: OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS Lance Lynn – Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers, 2PM ET

Lynn is a solid strikeout pitcher with the 7th highest K/rate (9.35) per 9 innings on the board today and he’s facing a Tigers team that isn’t swinging well right now. Detroit is 22nd in the Bigs in K’s per game at 8.71 and they’ve been especially bad against right-handed starters with 6.7 per game. The Tigers hit just .210 as a team against righties and have been worse yet in their last ten games hitting just .195 with an average of 8.7 K’s per game. Recently, the Tigers have 152 K’s in their last 14 games which is the most in baseball. In that 14-game stretch they are striking out once every 3.04 at bats. Yesterday the Tigers struck out eleven times against the White Sox staff. Lynn has 62 K’s on the season in 59.7 innings of work after throwing 176 K’s a season ago in 157 innings. He has 6 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last five games. Lynn faced this Detroit lineup in mid-June and had 4 strikeouts in 4 innings of work. We expect a longer outing here and with more than 1 K per inning.

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ASA MLB prediction Free pick

Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150) Mike Clevinger – San Diego Padres

62 strikeouts in 65 innings pitched, 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA. Washington strikesout 2nd least number of times per game at 7.22 and have been on fire hitting left-handed pitchers of late with a .292 team batting average and 3.8 K’s per 9/innings in their last ten games. Clevinger has had 5 or less strikeouts in 7 of his last ten starts. The Nats own the 11th best walk percentage in baseball at 8.9% and the 3rd best K percentage at 19.6%.

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Point Train NFL Predictions – 2022-23

POINT TRAIN PREDICTIONS – all odds found at FanDuel

NFC WINNER – Green Bay Packers +500

The Packers have rolled to an impressive 39-10 regular season record the last 3 seasons which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period.  The defense should be one of the best in the NFL this year.  Green Bay is loaded in the defensive backfield and it could be argued they have three #1 corners with Alexander, Stokes and Douglas.  If they can shore up their run defense this will be tough to beat.  Because of that, the offense may not have to do as much as previous seasons.  QB Rodgers lost some key weapons in the passing game but others have stepped up in early practices and he tends to make all of his receivers look good.  The running game will be among the best in the league as well with the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon.  The Packers have won the NFC North in 8 of the last 11 seasons and we expect them to come out on top in the division again this year.  They’ve come up short in the NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 seasons and we think they have a great shot to get over the hump this year. 

NFC LONGER SHOT – New Orleans Saints +1700

The Saints roster is loaded with talent.  It’s one of the best in the NFL.  Their defense last year was very good finishing in the top 5 in PPG, YPG, and YPP allowed.  Their offensive weapons are as good as any in the league with RB Kamara (suspension possible?) and WR’s Thomas (back from injury), Landry and rookie Olave.  Can QB Jameis Winston play well enough to get this team to the playoffs?  That’s they only question we have with this team.  If Winston plays well, the Saints should be very good.  Tampa remains the only other formidable team in the division and New Orleans has owned the Bucs beating them 7 straight times in the regular season, including 4-0 facing Brady at QB. 

AFC WINNER – Buffalo Bills +400

The Bills have lost in the AFC Divisional or Championship game in each of the last 2 seasons.  Both losses were versus the Chiefs including a 42-36 setback in OT to get to the AFC Title game last season.  If you remember Buffalo took a 3 point lead in that game with just 13 seconds remaining the Chiefs were able to tie it in regulation and win in OT.  Despite coming up short, the Bills were the best team in the NFL for the entirety of the season.  They led the NFL in point differential and yards per play differential, both by a wide margin.  All 12 of their wins came by more than 10 points and 6 of their 7 losses came by a TD or less with 2 coming in OT.  The defense led the NFL allowing just 18 PPG and in yards per play allowed at just 4.8.  The offense should be great this year with QB Allen working with some high end weapons again this season.  If the offensive line can improve just a bit, watch out.  The AFC East is a fairly weak and the Bills are definitely the class of the division.  Buffalo finally gets to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC LONGER SHOT – Indianapolis Colts +1200

The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year and they sit in one of the weakest divisions in football, the AFC South.  Houston and Jacksonville are projected to be 2 of the worst teams in the NFL once again and Tennessee had the lowest point differential of any team that won their division.  Despite finishing 2nd last year, the Colts point differential was 21 points better than the Titans.  An upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan should help significantly as Wentz was a disaster last season.  We project Indianapolis to win the division this year and at 12/1 they are not a bad investment to win it all.

SUPER BOWL WINNER – Buffalo Bills +650

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Green Bay Packers Total Win prediction 2022

By ASA – Green Bay Packers Total Win Prediction 2022 – OVER 10.5 WINS

Did you know Green Bay has the 2nd most overall victories at 782 in league history? The Packers are going to add to that win total this season with 11 or more wins. Scheduling has a lot to do with it as they play in a weak NFC North Division.

No other team in the NFC North had a winning record last season and only Minnesota has had a winning record in the past three years.

                               2021       2020       2019

Vikings                 8-9          7-9          10-6

Bears                     6-11       8-8          8-8

Lions                      3-13-1   5-11       3-12

The Vikings and Bears have new coordinators in place and are completely changing their defensive schemes so expect slow starts for both. We do expect the Lions to be improved this season, but they are not a threat to Green Bay at the top of the Division.

Looking closer at those three other NFC North teams, none were in the top half of the league in overall (offensive/defensive) efficiency stats. The Packers were 8th overall in the NFL.

The Packers have won 13 games the previous three seasons with an average Margin of Victory at Plus +5.1PPG. Last year the Pack won 13 regular season games and the last game of the year versus Detroit was a meaningless loss.

Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home with a 22-2 SU at home the previous three seasons so expect another 7 or 8 victories as the home team (one game against the Giants is in London).

Last season they owned a top 10 defense and expectations they’ll be better this year even with the loss of ZaDarius Smith (Vikings). The Packers drafted two Georgia (#1 in NCAA last year in D) defensive players (Walker, Wyatt) who expect to make an immediate impact.

The rushing offense was below or around league average in most key rushing categories, but it should be one of the better units in the NFL with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion toting the football.

The Packers WR’s will be a question mark with the loss of Adams but they still have capable receivers in: Lazard, Cobb and Sammy Watkins. They drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who has had outstanding preseason camp and is our longshot offensive rookie of the year bet at 100-1. The question we ask is this: Do the wide receivers need to great for Aaron Rodgers or does Rodgers throw those guys open? In the last three years Rodgers has 12,416 total passing yards, 111 TDs / 13 INT’s and a 72% completion percentage.

The Packers were underdogs just 4 times last season and won all 4. We have them favored in 14 of their games this season and would predict losses at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Other than those two teams the Packers face a very winnable schedule which ranks 22nd in SOS this season.

We like Green Bay to win more than 11 games.