Tag: American Sports Analysts

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NBA MVP Winners and Losers – Nov 18th

ASA NBA Future MVP wagers as of Nov 18th.

If you are a bettor that likes to invest in NBA futures here are a couple wagers to consider for league MVP. We are sticking with a pair of our preseason predictions but have added another based on early season results.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +$250

Before the season started, we predicted Giannis Antetokounmpo as the NBA league MVP at +$250. Giannis is putting up 29.9PPG, 11.8RPG, 5.5APG with a PER rating of 29.14. In order he ranks 8th, 2nd, 29th and 6th in those four key categories. Milwaukee holds the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference at 11-3. The Greek Freak is quietly putting up numbers similar to his 2019 and 2020 season when he won back-to-back MVP’s.

Ja Morant +$1400

We also like a long shot early on with Ja Morant who is now listed at +1400. We still like Morant who is 9th in scoring at 29.3PPG while also averaging 6.8-Assists Per Game (14th) and 6.2-Rebounds Per Game (60th) with a PER of 26.19 (10th). Memphis has dealt with a number of key injuries early on but have still managed a 9-6 record. For Morant to win though he will have to improve on his assists per game and Memphis will need to finish as one of the top teams in the West.

Jayson Tatum $+550

New to the table is Jason Tatum who has led the Celtics to a 12-3 record and the best team +/- in the league at +7.1PPG. We won’t be surprised if Boston finishes first in the East again and if that’s the case, Tatum will be high on the voter’s radar. Tatum has the 7th best PER at 27.50, is 5th in scoring at 31.1PPG, is grabbing 7.4 Boards Per Game (40th) and is dishing out 4.1APG which ranks 50th. What makes Tatum as an attractive option right now is the fact that his team is deep and defenses can’t key on him. Boston spaces the floor with shooters at every position and they make shots at a 48.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. That means additional assist per game for Tatum even if he isn’t scoring as much.

HONORABLE MENTION – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – SGA won’t win MVP this season because he’s on a losing team in the Thunder but he’s put up incredible numbers to start the season and is worth mentioning. Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 32.3PPG, grabbing 4.5RPG and dishing out 5.9APG. His PER rating is 30.10 which is 3rd best in the NBA.

Here is our elimination list or players I would avoid investing in: #1 on the list is Zion Williamson. Who in their right mind would invest in this “china doll” who can’t stay healthy? Yes, he can be a stat-sheet stuffer but there is no chance he wins MVP playing limited games this season. #2 Nikola Jokic. Jokic has won it the past two seasons which and it’s unlikely we would see a three-year run from the media. He also has Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury and both cut into his scoring numbers.

Top 25 Current MVP odds

NBA 2023 MVP WINNER ODDS
  
PlayerOdds
Luka Doncic250
Giannis Antetokounmpo260
Jayson Tatum550
Stephen Curry1100
Joel Embiid1200
Ja Morant1400
Donovan Mitchell2000
Kevin Durant2200
Nikola Jokic3000
Devin Booker4000
Trae Young5000
Damian Lillard5000
Zion Williamson5000
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander7000
Pascal Siakam7000
DeMar DeRozan10000
Jimmy Butler15000
James Harden15000
Paul George20000
Jaylen Brown25000
Lauri Markkanen25000
De’Aaron Fox25000
LeBron James25000

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NBA Player Prop Nov 17th

ASA Player Prop OVER 21.5 POINTS – Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs

The Over/Under on this game itself is 236 which tells us it’s going to be a high scoring game. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, and two of the worst when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spurs are 29th in the league allowing 1.169-points per possession, the Kings rank 27th giving up 1.147PPP. Johnson is averaging 22.71PPG on the season and has a pair of big game recently against a comparative team to the Spurs in the Denver Nuggets. Sacramento allows the 6th most points to shooting forwards, Denver is 8th in that defensive category. Our models are projecting 25.25 points tonight for Johnson.

ASA ON INSANE START TO NBA SEASON ON PLAYER PROPS! 24-7 HOT STREAK. GET BETS NIGHTLY FOR $9

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NBA free bet Nov 16th

NBA Free Bet – Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET

*No Luka Doncic for Dallas tonight hence the big line move.* After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a NBA free bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here. Good luck with this NBA wager Wednesday night.

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NBA Prop Bet – Monday, Nov 14th

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 11.5 POINTS Al Horford, Boston Celtics

ASA’s best Prop Bet tonight. Horford has been somewhat limited this season as they manage his load/minutes early on. He did not play in the Celtics most recent game which was the second night of a back-to-back but in the previous game he scored a season-high 21-points. He has scored in double-digits in 5 straight games in which he’s played in and 6 of the last seven. Now he faces the 5th worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed per game to Centers in the OKC Thunder. Consider this. In the 10 games he’s played in he has faced a defense that is in the top half of the league in the least number of points allowed to Centers in every game but one. Tonight, it’s going to be a big game for the Celtics center.

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NBA free wager – Suns vs. Wolves, Nov 9th

NBA free wager by ASA – UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

ASA play on: #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET

ASA NBA pick. In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER for this NBA pick!

ASA player prop OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs – Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers

The Hornets are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA so Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Charlotte also ranks 23rd in the league in points in the paint allowed at 52. Nurkic is averaging 13PPG and 11.2RPG but we expect him to exceed those expectations given the opponent they Blazers are facing tonight. On average, Charlotte allows 42.91 Pts+Rebs per game which is the second highest total in the NBA. To similar centers to Nurkic (Valancunius, Capela, Sabonis, Vucevic, Adams and Porzingis) the Hornets have allowed an average of 30.33 Pts+Rebs. Nurkic has had two straight lower output games but they came against the Suns and Heat who are better than the Hornets defensively when it comes to centers. Easy Over call here.

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