Tag: American Sports Analysts

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NBA free wager – Suns vs. Wolves, Nov 9th

NBA free wager by ASA – UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

ASA play on: #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET

ASA NBA pick. In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER for this NBA pick!

ASA player prop OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs – Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers

The Hornets are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA so Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Charlotte also ranks 23rd in the league in points in the paint allowed at 52. Nurkic is averaging 13PPG and 11.2RPG but we expect him to exceed those expectations given the opponent they Blazers are facing tonight. On average, Charlotte allows 42.91 Pts+Rebs per game which is the second highest total in the NBA. To similar centers to Nurkic (Valancunius, Capela, Sabonis, Vucevic, Adams and Porzingis) the Hornets have allowed an average of 30.33 Pts+Rebs. Nurkic has had two straight lower output games but they came against the Suns and Heat who are better than the Hornets defensively when it comes to centers. Easy Over call here.

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College Football free wager – Nov 5th

ASA PLAY ON #392 UL Lafayette +4.5 over Troy, Saturday 5 PM ET

College Football free wager: We think we’re getting some solid value here with the home dog.  Last year ULL was favored by -6.5 AT Troy and now this year they are getting +4.5 at home.  So technically we’re talking about at least a 17 point swing in one year if we factor in home field advantage.  That’s too much.  ULL is coming off a loss which helped this line, however it was a deceiving loss @ Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles won 39-24 vs ULL who was favored by -2.5 on the road in that game.  The Ragin Cajuns outgained USM by 100 yards in that loss but had 4 turnovers and the Eagles had a defensive TD and a safety in the game.  Prior to that loss ULL was coming off back to back double digit wins vs Arkansas State and Marshall.  At home this season the Cajuns are 3-1 with their only loss coming by 3 points vs a South Alabama who we have rated dead even with Troy.  The Trojans are on a nice 5 game winning streak, however they struggle offensively at times (76th in total offense and 120th in rushing) so they often win close games when they do win.  In that 5 game winning streak they have scored 17 points or fewer 3 times and 4 of those 5 winning margins were single digits.  If we throw out Troy’s game vs FCS Alabama A&M their average score this season is 20.2 – 17.7 so only +2.5 PPG.  ULL has an extremely strong home field advantage winning 22 of their last 25 as a host dating back to the 2018 season.  Troy hasn’t laid points on the road in this series since 2011 and we feel the Cajuns have a solid shot at the upset here as our free pick.  Take the points with ULL as our free pick today.

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NBA free bet | Nov 3rd

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10PM ET

The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

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NFL Player Prop Bets – Oct 30th – By ASA

ASA 4 NFL Player Props for Sunday, October 30th 2022

Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle Over 64 Rec Yards (-119)

Last week Waddle turned 4 catches into 88 yards with only 5 targets. Detroit is giving up roughly 250 passing yards per game this season making it a salivating matchup for the Miami speedster. If Detroit can regain some of its early season offensive output, we may see a shootout at Ford Field. Set at the highest O/U of the weekend (50.5), Waddle could easily double his yardage total without surprising anyone. 

Atlanta Falcons – Marcus Mariota Under 161.5 Pass Yards (-117)

Atlanta has been dead set on running the football no matter the score in 2022. In week seven, the Bengals scored 21 unanswered points on their first three drives, yet Mariota only threw 13 times the entire game while trailing. He has not surpassed 150 passing yards once in his previous four games. Additionally, Carolina’s defense played great against the Bucs, holding them to three total points. 

New Orleans Saints – Alvin Kamara Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-117)

Andy Dalton was named the starter once again for week 8. This bodes well for Kamara as he has collected six or more passes in the three games they have both started. Las Vegas ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game. With how involved the Saints stud running back is in the passing game, expect there to be plenty of room for Kamara to operate. Volume alone will make him a valuable bet. 

NY Giants Saquon Barkley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Barkley is averaging 103.71 rushing yards per game and this Seattle defense will be the worst rush D they have faced this season. The Seahawks give up 147.9 Rushing Yards Per game which ranks 29th in the NFL. The Hawks D-line ranks 19th in “Hog Index”. The Giants rank 10th in O-Line “Hog Index”. Let’s do some simple math here: Seattle gives up 4.9-Yards Per Rush. Barkley averages 20.43-Rush Attempts Per Game. Barkley averages 5.1-Yards Per Rush. If it’s an “average” game Barkley should rush for over 102.15 rushing yards.  

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NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday, Oct 28th

ASA is 8-3 this season with NBA Player Props – today’s winners below

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Miles Turner – Indiana Pacers

Let’s start with the Wizards defensive deficiencies when it comes to Centers around the league. Washington has one of the worst rebound rates against Centers and allows the 9th most points to “Bigs”. Turner is coming off an ankle injury prior to the season but saw 24 minutes of action against the Bulls on Wednesday night. He was just 1 of 7 from the field but expect a much better shooting night here in his second game back. Turner is a career 48.8% shooter, including 34.8% from Deep. He did grab 6 rebounds in that game against the Bulls and averages 6.7 lifetime in the NBA.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We feel this is the best bargain on the board in terms of PP’s and expect a big night from Vucevic against the Spurs. First off, the Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA which means plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for the Bulls. Secondly, as a team the Spurs are one of the worst defensive clubs in the NBA allowing 1.149-points per possession. The Spurs are 3rd worst in the league defending Centers at 26.73PPG allowed. Vucevic is averaging 17.4PPG this season and scored 24-points against a Washington team that is similar to the Spurs in defending centers. Last year in the two meetings against the Spurs, Vucevic scored 15 and 18 points respectively which gets us the money here. 

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