Tag: American Sports Analysts

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Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets

Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for 175 yards. Washington’s pass defense is 20th in yards/completion at 10.2, 21st in completion % against and 27th in opposing quarterbacks’ QBR rating. 

Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 Receptions – Ertz is averaging 6.3 targets per game over his last six games and has 4 or more receptions in 5 of those six games. Philadelphia allows 4.1 receptions per game to TE’s this season despite having one of the best pass defenses in the league. Ertz only played in 7 games a year ago but in his previous two seasons of 11 and 10 games he averaged 5 and 4.7 receptions per game. In his 12 year career, Ertz has averaged 4.6 receptions per game. Let’s not forget he is playing against the team that drafted him back in 2013 and whom he played for in 9 seasons.

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NBA Prediction | OKC Thunder NBA Champions 2025

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ASA NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder: Champions of the 2024-25 NBA Season +700

The Oklahoma City Thunder, coming off an impressive season, have set the stage for what many are predicting to be their championship year in 2024-25. Here’s why the Thunder are not just contenders but our bet to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy:

Statistical Dominance in 2023-24:

Net Scoring Margin: The Thunder ranked second only behind the Boston Celtics in Net Scoring Margin with a +7.3-scoring margin. This team could not only score at will but also was suffocating opponents defensively.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: Finishing third in offensive efficiency, the Thunder’s system under Coach Mark Daigneault has evolved into a machine with great playmaking, shooting, and dynamic scoring. Their fourth-place finish in defensive efficiency highlights a roster that’s not just about flashy plays but also about stifling defense, with the 3rd best Effective Field Goal Percentage D at 52.7%. The Thunder were also tough to score on in the paint, allowing the 6th fewest points per game in the lane at 46.3ppg.

Home Court Advantage:

Record: A staggering 33-8 at home with an average scoring differential of +12.3 points per game speaks volumes. This Thunder team is in line for another 30+ win season on their home court which is one of the best in the NBA. Oklahoma City was 24-17 SU on the road in the regular season with an average plus/minus of +2.3ppg.

Strategic Additions:

Alex Caruso: Known for his defensive prowess and hustle, Caruso’s addition brings a level of tenacity and versatility that’s invaluable. His impact goes beyond stats, often being the catalyst for momentum shifts with his energy and basketball IQ. Caruso hit 40.8% of his 3-point attempts last season in 71 games for the Bulls while scoring 10.1ppg.

Isaiah Hartenstein: Hartenstein’s arrival addresses depth in the front court, adding size, rebounding, and a new dimension to the Thunder’s offensive sets with his passing out of the post. His fit next to Holmgren could revolutionize their defensive schemes, offering versatility against various offensive looks. Hartenstein averaged 8.3 rebounds per game last season with the Knicks and 1.1 blocks per game.

Core Continuity and Growth:

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren returning, the Thunder maintain their core that’s both young and experienced. Gilgeous-Alexander, after narrowly missing the MVP last season, seems poised for a leap, potentially securing the award this year with the added support.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their depth, star power, and unparalleled efficiency, are not just poised to make noise in the playoffs; they’re positioned to end the season as NBA Champions. Their journey this year is not just about potential but about realizing it, making 2024-25 the year the Thunder claim their rightful place at the top of the NBA mountain.

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Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024

ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Indy’s defense is a wreck right now.  They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG.  They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers ran the ball 55 times with back up QB Willis getting his first start and vs Chicago who ranks 29th in YPP offense.  Even in those games GB tallied 383 yards and Chicago 395 yards so they both had opportunities to put up more points. 

Indy ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to average 38 yards per drive.  The Titans have some offensive confidence coming into this game after putting up 31 points last week (their season high) vs Miami and QB Levis, who was banged up in the game, looks like he’ll be fine here. 

Tennessee’s defense is highly rated, however they’ve faced 4 offenses (Miami, NYJ, and Chicago) who rank in the bottom 7 in YPP.  The one decent offense they’ve faced was Green Bay who put up 30 points on them. 

Indy’s offense averages 6.2 YPP (5th in the NFL) and 24 PPG.  We would expect the Colts to have success here offensively.  Both QB’s should have time to operate in the pocket as these defenses rank 29th and 30th in pressure rate. 

These 2 AFC South rivals have met 10 times since the start of the 2019 season and they’ve averaged 48 total points in those games.  We like the Over on Sunday as our free NFL bet. 

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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

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