Tag: AFC West Prediction

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AFC West Prediction | Denver Broncos Under 5.5 |

ASA’s AFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

ASA AFC West Prediction – Denver Broncos – UNDER 5.5 Wins (-115)

How are the Broncos going to score enough points to keep up in games?  They might have the worst group of skill position players in the NFL and it starts at QB.  Jarred Stidham, Zach Wilson, and rookie Bo Nix are battling it out to see who gets the nod as the starting signal caller.  Stidham and Wilson both have a career passing completion percentage below 60% and they’ve combined to throw more interceptions than TD’s.  Rookie Bo Nix will be the Week #1 starter and we are not overly confident in his ability to lead this Broncos team to 6+ wins.

Denver lost top WR Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland and starting RB Williams dropped off big time last season (just 3.5 YPC) after a serious knee injury in 2022.  Head coach Sean Payton said he wants to run the ball more to protect his inexperienced, and honestly just not very good, QB’s. 

The problem is, they weren’t great at running the ball last year (21st in YPC) and didn’t really do much in the off season to improve on that.  The Denver offense was just 1 of 7 in the NFL that didn’t have a player with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving and they’ll be worse on that side of the ball this year. 

The defense will most likely be improved but that won’t take much as they finished 27th in PPG allowed and 29th in YPG allowed. 

The Broncos face the 8th most difficult schedule this season (per PFF) and have only 8 home games.  They’ve always had a solid home field advantage, but on the road they have not had a winning record since 2015 (16-41 road record the last 7 years) and we project them to be underdogs in all of their road tilts this season. 

Believe it or not, the Broncos have averaged only 6 wins per season over the last 7 years and we project this to be one of their worst teams during that stretch.  5 or fewer wins for Denver this year is likely.

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AFC West Prediction | Chargers Win Total Bet | Aug 21st

NFL Prediction on the LA Chargers and how many games they’ll win in 2023

AFC WEST

ASA’s NFL WIN TOTAL UNDER 9.5 WINS LA CHARGERS +110

The Chargers face the rest of the AFC West twice which features Kansas City, Denver and Las Vegas. Obviously, the Chiefs are the Super Bowl Champs with their core players returning. The Broncos are a team with a great defense, a hall of fame QB and genius head coach in Sean Payton and could make a huge jump in 2023-24. The Raiders are a bit of an unknown but could be better with their QB change. They also face the AFC East which could be the best division in the league and also get the Cowboys and Ravens. The Chargers had a negative net yardage differential as they gained +5.3 yards per play but allowed -5.9YPPL. We can also expect a regression in turnovers as the Chargers benefitted from the second-best net turnover differential per game in the NFL at +0.6. We also don’t feel they can sustain their 3rd down conversion rate of 6.7 per game from a year ago which was best in the league. The mystique surrounding the Chargers is their offense which is deemed as one of the best in the NFL with high profile QB Justin Herbert. You might be surprised by the fact that the Chargers ranked 19th in offensive DVOA last year, were 12th overall in scoring and 21st in Yards Per Play. Los Angeles allowed the 29th most Yards Per Play a year ago and were 23rd in scoring defense giving up an average of 23.1PPG. The Chargers were also in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA rankings. We don’t see the Chargers getting 10 or more wins this season.

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  • LA CHARGERS NOT TO MAKE PLAYOFFS  -120 – This ties into our assessment of their win total. If Denver makes a jump the Chargers could finish 3rd in the AFC West. The AFC East and AFC North will have multiple teams from their division advance into the playoffs which could leave Los Angeles on the sidelines come the postseason.

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