NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting
Odds offered at Draftkings.com
MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS
NFC QUARTERBACKS
Dak Prescott +360
Brock Purdy +700
Jared Goff +750
Baker Mayfield +1600
Jalen Hurts +1700
Matt Stafford +2200
Jordan Love +3000
AFC QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen +500
Patrick Mahomes +550
Lamar Jackson +700
Tua Tagovaliloa +950
Joe Flacco +1200
CJ Stroud +2000
Mason Rudolph +3500
First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl. That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.
Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.
Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts. In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.
San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.
At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.
We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.
At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.
You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.
Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.
Brock Purdy +700
Dak Prescott +360
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