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NBA free wager – Suns vs. Wolves, Nov 9th

NBA free wager by ASA – UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

ASA play on: #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET

ASA NBA pick. In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER for this NBA pick!

ASA player prop OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs – Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers

The Hornets are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA so Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Charlotte also ranks 23rd in the league in points in the paint allowed at 52. Nurkic is averaging 13PPG and 11.2RPG but we expect him to exceed those expectations given the opponent they Blazers are facing tonight. On average, Charlotte allows 42.91 Pts+Rebs per game which is the second highest total in the NBA. To similar centers to Nurkic (Valancunius, Capela, Sabonis, Vucevic, Adams and Porzingis) the Hornets have allowed an average of 30.33 Pts+Rebs. Nurkic has had two straight lower output games but they came against the Suns and Heat who are better than the Hornets defensively when it comes to centers. Easy Over call here.

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