Category: Freepicks

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NBA Free pick | Bucks at Pacers | December 31st 2024

ASA NBA FREE play or NBA prediction on Indiana Pacers vs.  Milwaukee Bucks, 3:10PM ET

*Note the early start of this game.*  

There is some bad blood between these two teams that genuinely don’t like each other.

Milwaukee won the first meeting of the season at home 129-117, but it took 53% shooting overall and 47% from Deep to notch that win.

Both teams have had some injury concerns early on but the Pacers are in a better current situation as the Bucks had an illness run through the team this past week.

When we look at the last 10 games for these teams, we find the Pacers are 7-3 SU with a +3.5 Net Rating compared to the Bucks at 5-5 SU with a negative NR of -0.9.

Indiana hasn’t been great at home with an 8-5 SU record, but they still have a positive differential of +1.3ppg. The Bucks are 5-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.1ppg. Now that the Pacers are getting healthy, we expect a regression to their home court dominance like last season when they had the 5th best average +/- at home of +7.4ppg.

Speaking of home/road numbers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. We like that trend to continue here. NBA free bet on the Indiana Pacers Money Line +100 vs. Milwaukee Bucks.

ASA NBA player prop bet OVER 13.5 POINTS – Khris Middleton Milwaukee Bucks

This is an unusually low number for Middleton considering his minutes are going up and he has scored more than this in 5 straight games.

Granted, his field goal attempts will take a hit here with Giannis potentially coming back but there is still value in this Over.

K-Midd is averaging 13.37 points per game this season and should have a solid scoring game against a Pacers defense that isn’t very good.

Indiana is 23rd in Defensive Efficiency ratings allowing 1.165 points per possession.

In his last 5 games against the Pacers, Middleton has put up 19, 20, 14, 21 and 19-points.

Indiana gives up 22ppg to Small Forwards this season, 11th most in the NBA.

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NBA free bet | Suns vs Warriors Prediction | December 28th 2024

ASA’s NBA free bet on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET

Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number.

Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg.

Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games.

Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest.

These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

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NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24

NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. 

That didn’t go as planned as the Cowboys dominated on the road with Dallas winning 30-14 and outgaining Carolina by +1.2 YPP.  It was a clean sweep for Dallas in the key stats as they outgained the Panthers YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt. 

Carolina’s 3 wins this year have come vs the Raiders, Giants, and Saints who have a combined record of 9-33 and 2 of those wins came by 3 points or less.  They’ve been non-competitive in a number of their losses this season as their 11 setbacks have come by an average of 16 points. 

Arizona is in a must win spot here if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Cards have played the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL this year yet they still have a YPP margin of +0.3 (9th best in the NFL) while Carolina is -0.8 YPP on the season. 

The Cardinals love to run the ball and should have a huge advantage doing so as they average 141 YPG (7th in the NFL) and they are facing the worst rush defense in the league with the Panthers allowing 173 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. 

Carolina is getting outscored by an average of 10 PPG at home this season and we like Arizona to win this one by at least a TD.   

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NBA Free Bet | Jazz vs Nets Prediction | December 21st 2024

ASA NBA play on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7 :40PM ET

We are going to try and beat the Jazz again tonight when they travel to Brooklyn to face the Nets. Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and we are betting they don’t win two games in a row.

The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 17 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA.

Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games.

The Jazz turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in the NBA.

There were clearly some issues in the Nets locker room with Denis Schroeder on the roster. As soon as he was traded the Nets went on the road and beat Toronto in their most recent game.

Cam Johnson has elevated his game as he tries to improve his draft stock and get out of Brooklyn. Johnson is coming off a 33 point, 10 rebound and 6 assists against the Raptors.

Brooklyn has some horrible home losses in recent weeks, but they have come against: Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orlando twice and Boston. Those are 4 top teams in the East.

Utah has just 4 road wins on the season and are coming off an upset in Detroit. We like the Nets here.

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NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in his last 10 games and OKC allows the 4th fewest rebounds per game to PF this season at 8.2. NBA player prop bet – UNDER 11.5 REBOUNDS Giannis Antetokounmpo.

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 6.5 POINTS AJ GREEN – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Green is averaging 8.3PPG in his last ten games and is playing an average of 24 ½ minutes per game over that same 10 game period. He has scored 6 or more points in 9 straight games. He is shooting 45.2% from Deep and with Giannis, Lillard and Middleton getting all of the Thunders defensive attention he should get 6+ field goal attempts up in this one. You may want to consider Over 1.5 made 3-pointers but will have to lay high juice at -155.

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