Category: Freepicks

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ASA MLB prediction White Sox vs. Tigers

ASA player prop: OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS Lance Lynn – Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers, 2PM ET

Lynn is a solid strikeout pitcher with the 7th highest K/rate (9.35) per 9 innings on the board today and he’s facing a Tigers team that isn’t swinging well right now. Detroit is 22nd in the Bigs in K’s per game at 8.71 and they’ve been especially bad against right-handed starters with 6.7 per game. The Tigers hit just .210 as a team against righties and have been worse yet in their last ten games hitting just .195 with an average of 8.7 K’s per game. Recently, the Tigers have 152 K’s in their last 14 games which is the most in baseball. In that 14-game stretch they are striking out once every 3.04 at bats. Yesterday the Tigers struck out eleven times against the White Sox staff. Lynn has 62 K’s on the season in 59.7 innings of work after throwing 176 K’s a season ago in 157 innings. He has 6 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last five games. Lynn faced this Detroit lineup in mid-June and had 4 strikeouts in 4 innings of work. We expect a longer outing here and with more than 1 K per inning.

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ASA MLB free pick – Player Prop Marlins vs Braves

ASA player prop: OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS Jesus Luzardo – Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves, 1PM ET

The Braves are one of the best offenses in baseball, but they are certainly free-swingers at the plate with an average of 9.29 K’s per game which is 29th worst in baseball. Miami is sending Jesus Luzardo to the hill today to face the Braves and he’s a strikeout pitcher. Luzardo has 5 or more K’s in every start this season but one with 52 strikeouts on the season in just 41 innings of work. His K/9 inning rate of 11.41 is is the 4th highest among all starters today and he’s coming off his best start of the season with 6 K’s, 1 hit and 0 earned runs versus the Cubs. He also faced the Braves in late April of this season and struck out 8 in five innings of work.

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ASA MLB prediction Free pick

Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150) Mike Clevinger – San Diego Padres

62 strikeouts in 65 innings pitched, 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA. Washington strikesout 2nd least number of times per game at 7.22 and have been on fire hitting left-handed pitchers of late with a .292 team batting average and 3.8 K’s per 9/innings in their last ten games. Clevinger has had 5 or less strikeouts in 7 of his last ten starts. The Nats own the 11th best walk percentage in baseball at 8.9% and the 3rd best K percentage at 19.6%.

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ASA MLB picks today – Brewers Total

ASA play on: UNDER 7.5 RUNS Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers, 2:10PM ET

It starts with pitching here with two solid starters slated to take the mound for each team. Lefty Jeffrey Springs will take the hill for the Rays with a 4-3 record, 2.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the season. The Brewers will counter with Brandon Woodruff who is 9-3 on the season with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Woodruff has allowed just 6 earned runs in his last 23.3 innings of work with 24 strikeouts. At home Woodruff is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Both teams are 17th or worse in team batting average with Milwaukee hitting .240 as a team while the Rays hit .239. The Brewers do average 4.70 runs per 9/innings which is one of the higher averages in baseball but the Rays average 4.14 runs/9 innings which is 22nd. Milwaukee hits just .220 as a team against left-handed pitchers and scored 3.88 runs/9 innings. Tampa hits jut .233 against righties and score 4.26 runs/9 innings. Both teams are also trending in the wrong direction in their last ten games facing the designated handed pitchers.  We don’t see many runs being scored in this day game in Milwaukee.

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Rickenbach Free MLB play July 25

MLB Monday Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET – Action on pitchers. Boston has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game last 16 games! Even taking out the crazy 28-5 loss to Toronto, the Red Sox have allowed 7.3 runs per game last 15 games! In other words, no matter the starting pitcher Boston has been giving up piles of runs. If Pivetta starts tonight, that is even better as he has allowed 20 earned runs in his 13.1 innings in the month of July! As for the Guardians, they have averaged 6 runs per game last 7 games and their last 6 games have averaged a total of 10 runs scored. I look for this one to get to double digits regardless of who is on the mound but will mention that Plesac is the expected starter and he has allowed 11 runs (8 earned) in 14.2 innings in the month of July. Look for a high-scoring game at Fenway Park tonight. Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston