Category: Freepicks

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NFL free prediction Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sept 18th

ASA breaks down this NFL showdown for you with insights on how and who to bet on.

#263/264 ASA PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins.  We expect a similar situation on Sunday.  Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game.  The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season.  Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season.  In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD.  Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP).  The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards.  They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach.  The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game.  In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game.  There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD.  There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer.  The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here.  Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL.  Running eats clock and shortens the game.  These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points.  The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number.  Under is the play.

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New Mexico vs. UTEP Saturday Sept 17

#130 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico +2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 8 PM ET

UTEP steps into this one with a 1-2 record and their lone win came last week 20-13 vs New Mexico State.  The Miners were outgained in that game and beaten at the line of scrummage allowing 4.7 YPC to the Aggies while gaining just 3.5 YPC.  UTEP was also +1 turnovers in the win yet NM State had the ball deep in Miner territory late with a chance to tie but fumbled on the 13 yard line.  That’s an NMSU team that has a grand total of 5 wins vs FBS teams since the start of the 2018 season.  Not an impressive effort by UTEP.  Now they are favored on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2016 season.  Definitely a role they are not used to.  The Miners in fact, are just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times they’ve been a road chalk.  New Mexico is 1-1 on the season and they have an extra day to prepare for this one after losing 31-14 to Boise State last Friday night.  While the offense struggled vs a very good Boise defense, we were impressed with the Lobo stop unit as they held the Broncos to 318 total yards.  In this match up last year NM held a 10 point lead at half @ UTEP and the Miners battled back for a 7 point win scoring their final TD with under 3:00 minutes remaining.  We like New Mexico to win the line of scrimmage here which will give the advantage to the underdog.  Speaking of underdog, the puppy has covered 5 of the 6 meetings in this series.  UTEP has been overvalued by the oddsmakers with an 0-3 ATS record thus far losing those games by a combined 30 points to the number.  They continued to be overvalued here as a road favorite.  We like New Mexico to win this game at home.

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ASA NFL free pick Packers vs. Vikings, Sept 11th

ASA NFL free pick #476 Minnesota Vikings -2 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

*This NFL free pick was written up when the Vikings were a homedog and with the line swing we still like the Vikings, just less.* This is a dangerous game for Green Bay.  Their starters played very little in the preseason and QB Rodgers didn’t take a snap.  That could be a problem with WR Adams now gone and WR Lazard not likely to play.  Rodgers will be working with a very inexperience group of receivers with which he has no game time.  In a similar spot last year the Packers were smoked by New Orleans in the season opener.  The Packers are also banged up on the OLine with both starting tackles possibly out for this one.  We think Minnesota has a shot to win this division this season.  They hired O’Connell as their head coach (Rams OC last year) and he brings an offensive mindset to a team with a ton of weapons.  Minnesota has the much better WR’s with Jefferson & Theilen, TE Smith and RB Cook is now healthy.  QB Cousins is drastically under rated in our opinion.  He’s thrown for 32,000 career yards and 223 TD’s.  His interception rate has been below 2% in 3 of his last 4 seasons including last year at 1.2%.  This offense has the chance to be really good.  Last year GB traveled to Minnesota as a slight favorite and the Vikings won by 3.  Green Bay has come out of the gate slowly as of late losing 3 of their last 5 road openers.  We think they add another “L” here and Minnesota gets the win.

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Rickenbach NFL free bet Sept 11 2022

This is a solid free bet from Scott but certainly not his STRONGEST by any means. Get a TOP GAME here at ASAwins.com which is GUARANTEED with a pay after you win promise. Check it out.

Scott Rickenbach NFL free bet Sunday: Play Indianapolis Colts -7 @ Houston Texans @ 1 ET – Might seem tough to lay a full TD on the road to open up the NFL season but the Colts will be on a mission here. They lost key late-season games as big favorites against Raiders and Jaguars and then missed the post-season as a result of that. Indianapolis will not take the Texans lightly here as they do not want to make the same mistake. Look for veteran QB Matt Ryan to thrive in the Indy offense and the Colts have swept Houston each of the past two seasons and last year’s wins were by an average margin of 29.5 points each! We just need a win by more than a TD here and I fully expect Indy will get it. The Colts have a good recent history as an away favorite and the Texans have a bad recent history ATS in home openers. You saw the hunger the Bills had in the Thursday night NFL opener after their season ended in disappointing fashion last year in the post-season. The way Indianapolis ended their season so disappointingly last year and now making the QB change from Wentz to Ryan, I feel that you are going to see a similar hunger from the Colts here. Keep in mind, Ryan is thrilled to be away from a sinking Falcons franchise in Atlanta and now on a high-level playoff-caliber Indy team. All signs point to a road rout here as Houston is a disappointing 8-25 SU last two seasons and Colts were on a 20-11 SU run last two seasons before that disgusting 0-2 finish last year. This is simply a case of two teams at opposite ends of the NFL spectrum right now. This Colts team comes out with fire and wins big on the road here. Play INDIANAPOLIS -7

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POINT TRAIN WAGER – Appalachian State @ Texas A&M – Sat, 3:30PM ET

Point Train wager or free pick OVER 54-point Saturday, September 10th 2022

  • This is one of those game that one of the two teams could eclipse the total number by themselves. Did you watch Appalachian State’s defense last week versus North Carolina?
  • If you missed it UNC put up 567 yards of offense on 7.98 yards per play and 63-points.
  • App State was able to put 61-points up themselves along with 649 total yards of offense.
  • Texas A&M was 70th a year ago in total offense with 386.8YPG but that also came against a tough SEC slate of games.
  • The Aggies averaged 14.2 Yards Per Point which was 56th in the country.
  • Granted, A&M has one of the best defenses in college football, but we won’t need many points out of App State for this game to go OVER the number.