Category: Freepicks

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Free NFL play Bills vs. Ravens prediction – Oct 2

#257/258 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Bills total vs Miami closed 54 or 55 and we were on that Over.  This week it’s just 51 when our numbers have it similar to last week’s closing total.  The Bills are the constant here so comparing Miami with Baltimore, the Ravens offense leads NFL in scoring (33 ppg) and efficiency scoring 1 point for every 11.5 yards gained and YPP at 6.9.  Those numbers are better than Miami’s offense.  The Ravens defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed 6.7, last in pass defense at 353 YPG (next worst is 297 YPG allowed), AND they allowed 68 points last 2 weeks vs Miami & New England.  After scoring 72 points in their first 2 games, the Bills had just 19 last week but gained 500 yards!  Buffalo crossed into Miami territory on EACH of their last 6 offensive possessions and scored only 3 points.  They had their chances to say the least.  The Ravens have scored 75 points in their last 2 games vs decent defenses (Miami and New England) and they should have success vs a Buffalo defense that remains very banged up especially in the defensive backfield where 5 of their 9 top DB’s (CB’s and safeties) are out or questionable.  Part of the reason this total is set lower than it should be is weather.  The remnants of Hurricane Ian could be in the area with possible rain and 10 to 15 MPH winds.  Something we’ll have to keep an eye on as we get closer to game time.

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NFL Player Prop MNF – Sept 26

PROP BETS – OVER 14.5 RECEIVING YARDS – JAKE FERGUSON – COWBOYS

ASA’s NFL Player Prop bets for the Cowboys vs. Giants game. The news out of Dallas is that starting tight end Dalton Schultz is NOT expected to play. Before making this wager be sure to watch the pre-game warmups and see if he is active. If Schultz doesn’t play, we like Jake Ferguson to see plenty of action at the TE position. Last season Schultz was the 6th highest targeted TE in the NFL with 6.1 looks per game. The inexperienced QB Cooper Rush will likely check down to his underneath option or Ferguson in this case. In the preseason Ferguson led the TE’s with 7 targets for 76-yards. In the two meetings last season the Cowboy tight ends caught 16 passes for 167 total yards. Again, this is dependent on Schultz not suiting up.

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FREE college football bet | Sept 25

POINT TRAIN WAGER – #376 OREGON STATE +6 vs. USC @ 9:30PM ET

WAGER – OREGON STATE +6

  • Free college fotball – This is one of those games I keep going back to for one specific reason. The line on this game opened with USC a touchdown favorite and more money/tickets are being bet on the Trojans, yet the line moved off that key number.
  • My computers have USC as a 4.2-point favorite on a neutral field so you can see for yourself this number is slightly inflated.
  • Both have played Fresno State this season and won. OSU went to Fresno and won 35-32 as a 1-point dog. USC hosted the Bulldogs last week and won 45-17.
  • Oregon State was a 10-point road dog a year ago in So Cal and won 45-27 with a plus +109-yards differential.
  • USC is loaded on offense with some high-profile transfers but the Beavers aren’t far behind with an offense putting up 45.7PPG and averaging 12.6-Yards Per Point.
  • Defensively the Beavers were slightly better a year ago and the two units are about even this season.
  • There is value with the home dog in this one.
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College Football Free Bet – Friday Sept 23

POINT TRAIN FRIDAY OPINION PLAY ONLY: Boise State @ UTEP @ 9PM ET

WAGER – BOISE STATE -16

RATING – Opinion

  • This is one of those games you end up over-thinking and not betting the Side you should which is Boise State in this case.
  • Both teams have played New Mexico with drastically different outcomes. Boise beat UNM 31-14 in New Mexico and outgained them by +175-total yards as a 17-point favorite.
  • UTEP was at UNM last weekend and lost 10-27 as a 2-point favorite. The Miners outgained Lobos by 55-yards.
  • Last year at home the Broncos were -25-point favorites at home and won 54-13 with +130-yard advantage.
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MLB free pick Mariners vs A’s – Sept 22

Scott Rickenbach MLB free pick on Thursday September 22nd 2022

MLB free pick Thursday Free Pick Seattle Mariners Run Line -1.5 -130 @ Oakland A’s @ 3:37 ET – Just do not see the Mariners getting swept by the lowly A’s. Yes, anything can happen but I am backing Seattle here to get a big win at Oakland to close out this series. Regardless of pitchers, payback time for the Mariners here. Action on pitchers is the way to play this one but I will mention that the expected starting pitchers here also help the cause! Martinez has been roughed up badly in consecutive starts plus got hammered by the Mariners earlier this season. As for Kirby, he is having a fantastic season and also has a very low ERA both on the road and in day games. Very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs with the road team here. Mariners had won 11 of 16 road games heading into this series. Also, 18 of last 20 M’s wins have been by 2 or more runs! Free Pick SEATTLE -1.5 -130. All the best Scott Rickenbach