Category: Freepicks

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NBA free bet | Nov 3rd

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10PM ET

The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

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NFL free wager – Raiders vs. Saints Over/Under

#255/256 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

#255/256 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Two of the higher scoring teams in the NFL squaring off here with Vegas ranking 3rd at 27 PPG and New Orleans 7th at 25 PPG.  They both rank in the top 7 in the NFL in YPP offense as well.  Saints games are averaging 53 total PPG and Raider games are averaging 52 total PPG.  The Saints defense has struggled this season as they have allowed 28 PPG and they have allowed 6 of their 7 points to reach or eclipse their team totals.  The Raider defense is also among the worst in the NFL allowing every opponent to reach at least 20 points including Tennessee, Houston, and Denver who rank 21st, 28th and 32nd in scoring this season.  The Raiders have scored points on 55% of their offensive possessions this year which is the highest rate in the league and should have plenty of success in this one.  On the other side of the ball the Las Vegas defense has allowed TD’s on 15 of opponents 20 red zone appearances which his the 3rd worst rate in the NFL.  The New Orleans offense has scored a TD on nearly 30% of their red zone plays which is 2nd in the league.  The Saints have combined with their opponent to score at least 50 points in 5 of their 7 games this season and the Raiders have combined with their opponent to score at least 50 points in 4 of their 6 games.  These 2 have combined to go 9-4 to the OVER this season and we have this one getting to at least 50 points.  Take the OVER.

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NBA Prop bets Oct 29th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS – Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

ASA has gotten off to a 9-4 YTD start on NBA Player Props. Be sure to check out our site daily for free picks.

This seems like an easy one as long as Curry gets enough minutes in this game, and he should as he is back in his Davidson college State of North Carolina. Curry is averaging 30.8PPG on 48.6% shooting overall and 45.8% from beyond the arc. The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending Point Guards allowing 28.64PPG to that position. Charlotte has given up those lofty numbers yet have faced just one elite Point Guard this season in Trae Young who scored 28-points. Curry has scored 33+ points in every game but one and that was against a Suns team that has the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Charlotte is 16th in DEFF.

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NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday, Oct 28th

ASA is 8-3 this season with NBA Player Props – today’s winners below

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Miles Turner – Indiana Pacers

Let’s start with the Wizards defensive deficiencies when it comes to Centers around the league. Washington has one of the worst rebound rates against Centers and allows the 9th most points to “Bigs”. Turner is coming off an ankle injury prior to the season but saw 24 minutes of action against the Bulls on Wednesday night. He was just 1 of 7 from the field but expect a much better shooting night here in his second game back. Turner is a career 48.8% shooter, including 34.8% from Deep. He did grab 6 rebounds in that game against the Bulls and averages 6.7 lifetime in the NBA.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We feel this is the best bargain on the board in terms of PP’s and expect a big night from Vucevic against the Spurs. First off, the Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA which means plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for the Bulls. Secondly, as a team the Spurs are one of the worst defensive clubs in the NBA allowing 1.149-points per possession. The Spurs are 3rd worst in the league defending Centers at 26.73PPG allowed. Vucevic is averaging 17.4PPG this season and scored 24-points against a Washington team that is similar to the Spurs in defending centers. Last year in the two meetings against the Spurs, Vucevic scored 15 and 18 points respectively which gets us the money here. 

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Tampa Bay Brady Passing Yards Over/Under

ASA NFL Player Prop OVER 277.5 PASSING YARDS – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Ravens pass defense has not been good this season ranking 26th in the league in passing yards allowed per game. The Bucs have the 6th best passing offense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game. Tampa has a stagnant rushing attack and rank last in the NFL which means they’ll have to throw more to keep up in this one. The Bucs get WR Godwin back which should immediately improve the passing attack. Even though the offense hasn’t put up points, Brady has still thrown for over 290-yards in 3 of the last four games. The Ravens have a banged up secondary which means the GOAT has a big passing game and we bet OVER his total in this NFL Player Prop.

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