Category: Freepicks

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NBA Player Props – Wednesday Feb 1st

ASA Player Prop OVER 39.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS – Domantas Sabonis – Sacramento Kings

Let’s start with the fact that the Spurs are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Spurs allow 1.207-points per possession which is 30th in the league. They give up the 2nd most points to Centers at 25.4PPG, allow an average of 15.2 rebounds per game and 4.4 assists per game to opposing post players. Sabonis is averaging 38 Pts+Rebs+Ass per game on the season and recently he racked up 44 against this same San Antonio team. We expect a big night for the Kings Big!

ASA Player Prop OVER 35.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS – De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings

The Spurs are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Spurs allow 1.207-points per possession which is 30th or last in the league. They give up the 6th most points to PG’s on the season at 25 per game. On average they are allowing 8.3 assists per game to point guards and 5.9 rebounds per game. We are basically betting Fox to have an ‘average’ game against this porous Spurs defense is what shapes up to be a high possession and scoring game. Fox is averaging 35 Pts+Rebs+Ass in his last ten games.

ASA Player Prop OVER 19.5 POINTS – Gary Trent Jr – Toronto Raptors

Trent should put up some big offensive numbers tonight against a Jazz team that is worst in the league in points allowed to Shooting Guards t 25.3PPG. Trent is averaging 18.64PPG on the season and 19 per in his last ten games. He has scored 19 or more points in 4 of his last six games. The Jazz rank 26th in the league in 3-point percentage defense and 18th in overall FG% defense. We like Trent Jr. to have a big game here.

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NBA free bets – Player Props Tuesday, Jan 31st

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS – Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks

In analyzing Brook Lopez’s last ten games we see some low scoring numbers against the Nuggets, Cavs and Heat. Those three teams are a few of the best in the league in points allowed per game to Centers. In other games against the Pelicans, Pacers and Pistons, Lopez posted scoring numbers of 15, 15 and 21 points. The correlation we are making here is that the Hornets are the 5th worst team defending Centers this season allowing 24.7PPG and much like the Pels, Pacers and Pistons.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – Jrue Holiday – Milwaukee Bucks

The oddsmakers are telling us this is going to be a high scoring game with a total set of 244.5 points. That means more scoring opportunities and more assist opportunities for Holiday. The Hornets allow the 7th most assists per game to PG’s this season at 8.6 per. They also allow the 11th most points to PG’s on average at 24.4PPG. In Holiday’s last five games he is averaging 27.2 Pts+Ass per game, in his last ten games he’s been even better yet at 31.5.

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NBA Player Props by ASA – Monday, Jan 30th

ASA Player Prop OVER 33.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS Stephen Curry – Warriors

We tend to stay away from Over player props on the NBA elite as you typically don’t get value in the numbers but that’s not the case tonight. Curry will be rested here, has scored 34 and 35-points in his last two games alone and is very capable of doing so again tonight. He is averaging 6.24 rebounds per game on the season so those are just a bonus for his O/U here. OKC is 10th in points allowed per game to Point Guards and also give up 5.6 rebounds per game to that position.

ASA Player Prop OVER 24.5 POINTS DeAaron Fox – Kings

Fox is in line for a big game tonight against a Wolves team that struggles to contain PG’s. Minnesota allows the 3rd most points to point guards in the NBA at 25.3PPG. Fox was very aggressive in their game against the Wolves the other night with 29-points on 10 of 24 shooting. Expect a similar effort tonight in this quick turnaround rematch.

ASA Player Prop OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS Fred VanVleet – Raptors

There is great value with this plus money bet as VanVleet should be dialed in from deep against this Suns team. Phoenix is 20th in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense and are 7th in made 3-pointers per game allowed to PG’s this season. VanVleet has had volume 3’s in his last three games with 8, 10 and 9 attempts. He is shooting over 40% from deep in his last ten games and has a great opportunity in front of him tonight.

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NBA Player Prop Picks – ASA 2 bets for Friday, Jan 27th

ASA Player Prop OVER 24.5 POINTS – Pascal Siakam – Toronto Raptors

Siakam is poised for a big game tonight against a Warriors team that struggles against good power forwards. For the season the Warriors are the 4th worst team in the league in points allowed to PF’s and in the last two weeks it’s been even worse. Golden State is allowing 25.9PPG to PF’s in the past 14 days and Siakam is putting up over 25PPG on the season. Big night here.

ASA Player Prop OVER 32.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Pascal Siakam – Toronto Raptors

Siakam is poised for a big game tonight against a Warriors team that struggles against good power forwards. For the season the Warriors are the 4th worst team in the league in points allowed to PF’s and 11th in rebounds allowed at 11.6 per game. in the last two weeks it’s been even worse. Golden State is allowing 13 rebounds per game and 25.9PPG to PF’s in the past 14 days. Siakam is putting up over 33-points+rebounds per game on the season. Big night here.

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NBA Free Bets for January 25th by ASA

ASA has you covered with some free action in the NBA

ASA play on: Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 10PM ET

The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number.

ASA Team Total UNDER 124.5 POINTS – GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The Warriors have put up some big scores in recent games, but they came against bad defensive teams. Today they face the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the Grizzlies who allow just 1.099-points per possession. The Warriors have faced some similar defensive teams in recent games (Cavs, Celtics, Bulls and Suns) and failed to top 120 points in any of those games. Golden State has scored more than 124 points against the Grizzlies just 1 time in their last 10 meetings. Our math model is projecting 114.6-total points for the Warriors.

ASA Player Prop OVER 25.5 POINTS+REBOUNS – Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trailblazers

Nurkic is inline for a big game tonight against a Jazz team that allows the 5th most points to centers and the 3rd most rebounds. In two meetings this season versus the Jazz he has totaled 25 and 29 points+rebounds respectively. In his last ten games he is averaging 25Pts+Rebs and is coming off a 36 total night against the Spurs.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors

VanVleet is averaging 19.1PPG on the season but in his last ten games that number has jumped up to 21.3PPG. The same can be said about is Assists statistics. For the year he is averaging 6.3APG but in his last ten games that average is 6.9APG. The Kings allow the 6th most points (24.6PPG) in the NBA to PG’s and 7.9-assists per game. There is a good chance VanVleet scores enough to get Over this number, the assists will just make it that much easier.