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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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NC State vs. UConn prediction | Point Train | Aug 31st 2023

College prediction for Thursday, August 31st

POINT TRAIN NC State at Connecticut – Thursday, 7:30PM EST

WAGER – NC STATE -14

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • We are going against the line move here as this number opened with the Wolfpack favored by -16.5 points but has since been bet down to -14.
  • Consider this though. These teams played last season and NC State was favored by 38-points and won 41-10. The Pack dominated with 29 first downs to just 8, nearly 400-total yards to just 160.
  • NC State returns 7 starters on offense and 5 on defense. They also have Virginia QB transfer Brennan Armstrong under center who threw for over 4,440-yards with 31 TD’s to 10 INT’s two years ago for the Cavaliers. He’s now reunited with former UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae so expect this Wolfpack offense to hum.
  • UConn made strides last year under head coach Jim Mora, winning 5 of their last eight games, but they still have a way to go.
  • The Husky were 94th in points per drive scored last season and ranked 69th in scoring defense giving up an average of 28.2PPG. Those rankings/statistics also came against a weak schedule.
  • One negative here is the fact that NC State has a big game on deck against Notre Dame, but with this being the first game of the season we don’t expect them to look past this UConn team.

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NFLx Bet | Bills vs. Bears | NFL prediction

#121 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -3 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET

Both teams plan to play their starters in this NFLx game which gives the Bills a solid edge.  How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here.  The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend.  In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times.  17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards.  A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP.  Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards).  Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s).  We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win.  Lay the small number with Buffalo for our NFLx bet.

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NFL Wager | Bills vs. Steelers | Aug 19th

NFL bet – POINT TRAIN WAGER Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday 6:30PM EST

WAGER – BILLS 1ST HALF – ½ +105

RATING – Beer & Pizza money

·         Bills head coach has publicly stated he plans to play his starters for more than a quarter, so we know what to expect early on from Buffalo.

·         Buffalo head coach McDermott has a stellar preseason record of 12-5-1 ATS. He clearly has set a precedent for winning exhibition games.

·         The Bills are again a contender to win it all in 2023-24 and have a deep roster. Buffalo was a top offensive and defensive team a season ago ranking 2nd in total yards per game and 7th in YPG allowed.

·         Pittsburgh had solid defensive statistics a year ago ranking 12th in total DVOA but did give up 5.5 Yards Per Play which rank 20th.

·         The Steelers offense was 18th in offensive DVOA overall and lacked explosiveness, ranking near the bottom of the league in Yards Per Play at 4.9 (27th).

·         We feel this game will be a tale of two halves with the Bills winning the first half and depending on how it plays out, we would consider a bet on the Steelers in the 2nd half. Pittsburgh has a better late game QB situation with Rudolph and Trubisky fighting for the second spot behind Pickett.

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MLB Free bet | Nelly Sportsline | Aug 15th

Free pick – #969 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) 6:07 PM CT

Enjoy this MLB free bet from Nelly today. The lack of production over the weekend for Philadelphia was shocking, scoring just one run Saturday and Sunday in losses at home following a run of ten straight games with at least four runs. The Phillies have still averaged 5.6 runs per game in August while +23 in scoring as this is an elite NL contender that has a chance to repeat as NL champions, even if will again have to come through a wild card path. Philadelphia is 40-22 since June 3 and Zack Wheeler remains one of the best pitchers in the NL. His FIP of 3.06 is the fourth best in all of MLB among qualified starters even if he isn’t getting much attention in the Cy Young race, after finishing second in 2021 for the award. Yusei Kikuchi is having his best MLB season, but his FIP is 4.52 compared to his 3.53 ERA as a lot has gone right. His home run rate remains very high and while his run of starts since the All-Star break has been excellent, it seems like a significant outlier stretch against his career numbers. The Blue Jays do have excellent relief pitching numbers in recent weeks, but the unit was taxed over the weekend getting only one start of six innings over the past four games. In the past 10 games Philadelphia has averaged 7.8 runs per nine while batting .277 vs. left-handers, while posting a 21-16 record on the season vs. left-handed starters as this should be a favorable matchup for the Phillies to deliver, after being shutdown by quality right-handers over the weekend. The Blue Jays are just 34-42 vs. winning teams this season as Toronto hasn’t looked like the serious contender most expected to see this season. 

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