Category: Freepicks

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Nevada vs San Diego State prediction – Oct 21st 2023

FREE BET #377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 48 Points – Nevada vs San Diego State, Saturday at 9 PM ET

Our free bet or free pick today is on this Total between the Wolfpack and Aztecs. Neither offense has been high scoring or dynamic this season which is why this total is low.  However, let’s take a closer look.  San Diego State has played 4 high level defenses so far this season in UCLA, Ohio, Oregon and Air Force.  Those 4 teams all rank in the top 13 in total defense nationally.  The SDSU offense expectedly struggled in those games.  In the 2 games when the didn’t face an elite defense, the Aztecs scored 41 & 31 points.  They won’t be facing an elite defense here to say the least.  Nevada’s defense ranks dead last in CFB in total defense and YPP allowed.  The Wolfpack also rank 132nd in PPG allowed and they’ve given up at least 31 points in 5 of their 6 games this season.  We expect SDSU to look very good offensively on Saturday night.  On the other side, the Aztecs have a reputation for being very solid defensively but that is not the case this season.  They rank 119th in total defense and 128th in YPP allowed.  In their last 5 games the Aztec defense has given up 35, 26, 34, 49, and 34 points.  The Nevada offense struggled early this season, but they have now scored at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  The only time they didn’t reach 24 during that stretch was vs Fresno who ranks in the top 30 in total defense.  Last week, the Wolfpack offense played as well as they have all season averaging 7.0 YPP vs rival UNLV.  Nevada put up 27 points in that loss to UNLV (45-27 final score) but could have scored more with 2 turnovers deep in UNLV territory.  This total is set low due to the offensive numbers each team has put up this year but it’s too low based on the poor defensive performances.  Free bet on the Over in today’s Wolfpack vs Aztecs game. 

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Seahawks vs Bengals Prediction – Sunday, Oct 15th 2023

ASA free bet on: #257/258 OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1PM ET

You should check the weather before betting this Over, but if the wind isn’t as bad as they are predicting this O/U number will move up dramatically. We have an opportunity to buy low here on the Bengals offense that has underachieved this season prior to last week’s game against the Cardinals. This Cincinnati offense is essentially the same unit that has been top 9 in scoring for two straight seasons at over 25.7PPG. QB Burrows was injured early this season, but he looked much better last week against the Cards throwing for 317 yards with 3 TD’s to 1 INT. He was also willing to push the ball down field completing 8 of 12 passes of 10+ yards. The Seahawks pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 68.5% of their pass attempts (25th), give up 6.8 yards per pass attempt (21st) and 280 passing yards per game which is 30th. Those numbers come despite facing Carolina and the Giants who have 2 of the three worst offenses in terms of DVOA in the league. In their other two games the Seahawks allowed the Rams/Stafford to throw for 334 yards and the Lions/Goff to complete 28/35 passes for 323 yards. Offensively we expect the Seahawks to have success against this Bengals defense and put up plenty of points on their own. Seattle is 13th in yards per rush at 4.4, the Bengals allow 5.3YPC (30th). Seattle averages 5.6YPP, Cincinnati gives up 5.9YPP (25th). The Hawks are averaging 27.8PPG on the year,6th most and face a Bengals D giving up 22.8PPG (20th). This game should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points by both teams.

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Kansas vs. Oklahoma State prediction – Oct 14th 2023

POINT TRAIN FREE BET – OKLAHOMA STATE +3 over Kansas – 2:30PM CT

You can bet the Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has pointed out to his team that they are underdogs at home to perennial Big 12 doormat Kansas today. Granted, KU is not the team of the past and head coach Leipold has done some fantastic things in Lawrence, but this number should be a pick’em by our power ratings. Okie State has won 9 of the last ten meetings outright, covered 8 of those with every one of those wins coming by a touchdown or more. Last season, the Jayhawks pulled the 37-16 upset at home as a 3-point dog with turnovers being the main culprit for OSU. Do you know how many times the Jayhawks have been a road favorite in the last ten years? ONCE! In that same 10-year span the Cowboys have been home dogs 14 times and have covered & won 9 of those. Grab the points.

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Florida vs South Carolina bet | Saturday, Oct 14th 2023 |

ASA free bet on: #142 South Carolina -2 vs Florida, 3:30PM ET

South Carolina is in a good situation here coming off a bye week and playing with revenge from a blowout loss a year ago to Florida 6-38. The big difference between these two teams on paper is their defenses as the Gators rank in the top half of the country in most categories and the Gamecocks don’t. But Florida is over-rated in our opinion and was recently exposed by Kentucky who gashed them for 329 rushing yards on 36 carries. Even a bad Vanderbilt team averaged 6.4 yards per play against the Gators last week, which is well above their season average of 5.5YPP. South Carolina is better than their 2-3 SU record as the three losses this season have come against ranked teams with a combined 15-1 SU record. SC QB Rattler is completing over 72% of his pass attempts (10th) for 312 passing yards per game which is 14th best in the nation. Florida has some impressive pass defense statistics but those comes against a weak-passing schedule with three of their games versus teams that rank 108th or worse in passing YPG. The Gators are ‘average’ on offense ranking 59th in total YPG, 63rd in rushing YPG and 55th in passing YPG. We can’t see this Florida team keeping up with the Gamecocks in this one. We are backing the revenge minded host here.

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NFL free pick Broncos vs Chiefs – Oct 12th 2023

ASA’s DENVER BRONCOS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) [47]

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS – OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS – Jerick McKinnon – KC Chiefs

Denver’s defense is historically bad. Worse than the 2017 Browns team that went 0-16 and the 2008 Lions team that also went 0-16 through the first 5 games of the season.

The Broncos defense is allowing 187 rushing yards per game to opponents (32nd)

They give up 5.9 yards per rush attempt (32nd) and own the worst D in the league when it comes to defending running backs.

Kansas City is 13th in rushing attempts per game at 27.6, and 9th in average yards per rush attempt at 4.5.

We won’t get involved in the Chiefs featured running back Isiah Pacheco’s rushing props as his number tonight is 74.5 rushing yards which is significantly higher than what his rushing O/U has been all season in the low to mid-50’s.

What we will be on though is OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS for Jerick McKinnon. He has totaled 22+ rushing/receiving yards in 3 of the Chiefs last four games. In fact, he’s had 18 or more receiving yards alone in 3 of his last four games. He’s been targeted by Mahomes 8 total times in the past four weeks and should get his fair share of looks in this game. We also like McKinnon anytime TD prop at +320.

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