Category: Freepicks

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Nascar predictions | Quaker State 400 | Atlanta Motor Speedway

ASA has a few Nascar wagers to make on Sunday, July 9th.

NASCAR is heading to Atlanta Speedway this weekend for the Quaker State 400. This track has undergone some reconstruction this season with new pavement and higher banked turns. The other big change was the narrowing of the straights which makes for much tighter racing conditions. Last week Nascar had a shocker when Shane Van Gisbergen won the street race in Chicago in his debut on the Cup series. We expect to see some familiar faces back in the front of the pack on the Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday.

TOP 10 – #2 Austin Cindric +$125 – You will see a reoccurring theme with our Nascar bets this week and that’s the support of Fords. This will be the second race run at Atlanta Motor Speedway this season and in the first race here Fords finished 1st, 2nd 7th and 11th. In four career Cup races in Atlanta, Cindric for the Roger Penske team, has a pair of solid runs with a 3rd and 11th place finish. The benefit for Cindric this weekend is strong support from his Penske teammates who should have strong showings on this large quad -oval Speedway.

RACE WINNER – #12 Ryan Blaney +$1200 – In our opinion, Blaney is a fantastic longshot this weekend to win in Atlanta. The Ford’s ran extremely well on this track earlier this race season with four cars in the top 11. One of those drivers was Ryan Blaney who finished 7th for the Roger Penske team. The #12 with Blaney behind the wheel has 5 top 10’s on this track, 4 top 5’s and a win in 2021. Blaney also had a dominating win earlier this season in Charlotte, where he led for 163 laps, which is a similar track to Atlanta’s. I’ll also have Blaney as a Top 3 finisher at +$320.

TOP 3 – #6 Brad Keselowski +$400 – Keselowski had a 2nd place finish here earlier this year and ran 1st for 47 laps which was second most behind Joey Logano. The #6 car and Keselowski have yet to win a race this season, but he does have 3 top 5 finishes and 6 top 10’s. The Atlanta track has a redesign, but Keselowski has 17 Cup races here with 10 top 10’s. Keselowski has raced 250 times on a 1-2 mile Speedway in his career and has 18 wins, 72 top 5’s and 129 top 10’s. The Ford’s have an aerodynamic advantage here and we like the #6 car to be in the running all race long.

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MLB free pick | Cubs vs. Guardians | June 30th

ASA has a MLB FREE BET for you today in baseball

ASA Free Play ON Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+105) over Cleveland Guardians @ 2:20 ET – We were a dealt a tough loss with our premium pick yesterday when Cleveland, known for strong bullpen, blew a late 2-0 lead and lost in extra innings at Kansas City despite a huge 13-6 edge in hits in the game. That is a tough defeat for a team to bounce back from and now the Guardians are at Chicago a for a day game after that heart-breaking loss. The Cubs should roll here as the pitching edge of Steele (8-2, 2.62 ERA) over Quantrill (2-4, 5.61 ERA) also gives them a big edge here. Look for the home team to win big as the Cubs have seen 30 of their 37 wins this season come by at least a 2-run margin and this one should be no different. FREE PLAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+105)

Free bets

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MLB free wager | Rangers vs. Tigers | June 29th

ASA Free Play ON Texas Rangers Money Line -160 over Detroit Tigers @ 2:05 ET -Taking pitchers out of the equation, since one could argue a case for either starting pitcher here, note the difference in the teams here as well as the home field edge for Texas which is why there is really a strong argument for the favorite in this one. The Rangers are at home where they are 26-14 plus they have gone 29-11 this season when facing teams that do not have a winning record on the season. The Tigers are 16-24 in road games this season and Detroit is 11-25 against teams with a winning record this season.  Given these numbers you can see why laying the price with the Rangers at home is absolutely worth a look in this one as the odds in favor of the road team make the price a bargain even in the -160 range on this one.  Texas is the play here. 

 

Free picks – Recents

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MLB free bet | Giants vs. Blue Jays | June 27th

#919/920 ASA FREE PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7 PM ET – This looks like a pitchers duel with Gausman expected to get the start for the Blue Jays and Walker (1.89 ERA) for the Giants. San Francisco has allowed an average of only 3 runs in last 13 road games. Toronto has allowed an average of only 3.6 runs in last 9 home games. We are looking for, at most, a 4-3 type battle here. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one.

Free bets or Free picks

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MLB Free bet – ASA – June 23rd

ASA FREE PLAY ON Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET – We lost with this play as a premium play yesterday but will come right back with it here in this spot on Friday. The Royals, despite yesterday’s upset win, are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 75 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 41 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 41 games.  So here you have a 79% play on situation versus a 79% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start Eflin here and he is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA this season. The Royals have Zack Greinke likely to get the start and he is 1-7 with a 4.81 ERA this season and known for struggling on the road more than at home in recent seasons. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!