Category: Freepicks

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WNBA Prediction | Sky vs Dream | 7/2/2024

WNBA Free Bet ASA play on Chicago Sky -1 at Atlanta Dream, 7PM ET

The Sky have been the more consistent team this season while the Dream have had their ups and downs, much of which is related to injuries. Atlanta was without Jordin Canada (ave’d 13.3PPG, 6.0APG last year) for most of the season but she has returned for 3 games but hasn’t been the same player. On the injured list now is Rhyne Howard who was averaging 15.4PPG, 4.5RPG and 3.4APG. After a 4-2 start to the season the Dream are now 3-8 SU their last eleven games. In this current 11-game stretch the Dream have the 3rd worst Net Rating in the league at -10.0. They have really struggled offensively with the worst Offensive Net rating of 92.2 and an EFG% of 42.7%. If we compare them to the Sky’s last eleven games we see a pretty stark contrast as the Sky have an overall Net Rating of minus -4.9. Chicago is 3-7 SU their last ten games but a look at who they’ve played says a lot with close losses to Minnesota, Las Vegas, Connecticut and New York who are some of the best teams in the league. On the season the Sky have a Net Point differential of minus -2.0PPG which is better than the Dream’s minus -4.5PPG. In a recent meeting the Dream beat the Sky by 9-points in Chicago but that was with Howard in the lineup who recorded a double-double in the game. We expect payback here with Chicago.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mercury at Storm | June 4th 2024

ASA’s WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm, 10PM ET

The Storm are the much better team when it comes to defense, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency versus a Mercury team that ranks 11th. Offensively both teams average over 1.000-points per possession with the Storm averaging 84.5PPG, the Mercury score 80.4PPG.

A big influence for the Over wager on this game will be the pace of play as the Storm are the 2nd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 80.2 possessions per game, the Mercury are 3rd at 80.

Phoenix scores the majority of their points from beyond the 3-point line with 38.1 3PA per game, most in the league. Seattle does their offensive damage from inside the Arc with the 5th best 2PT% in the WNBA and also crash the O-boards hard with the 4th most OREB per game at 12.2. The Mercury allow 84.4PPG on the season, the Storm allow 80.3PPG.

The pace of play should be frenetic and the added scoring opportunities for both teams will make this a very high scoring game.  

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WNBA Free Bet | June 2nd, 2024 | Liberty vs Fever

ASA Free WNBA bet on New York Liberty -14.5 vs Indiana Fever, 7PM ET

The Fever are in a tough scheduling situation here after playing a physical game yesterday against the Sky. Indiana won 71-70 and are now playing the second leg of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. Indiana has played one of, if not the toughest schedule thus far in the league and were in this same situation a few weeks ago in Vegas. They lost that game by 19-points. New York is rested and playing their last home game before a 3-game road trip. The Liberty have the 3rd best Net Differential in the WNBA at +8.4 with the 3rd best ONR and 4th best DNR. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams with the Liberty winning by 36 and 11 -points already. In the most recent clash, the Liberty were favored by -13-points and the Fever weren’t in this horrible schedule situation. Lay the points with New York.

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WNBA Free Bet today | May 24th 2024

ASA WNBA Free play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10PM ET

Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever.

L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle.

The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game.

L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

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NBA Free Player Prop Bets | May 19th | 2024

ASA play on UNDER 11.5 Rebounds Josh Hart – NY Knicks

Hart suffered an abdominal strain in the previous game and played just 30 minutes after logging 43+ in 3 of the first 6 games of this series. He was clearly hurt in Game 6 and this is the type of injury that can easily be aggravated. Hart’s greatest asset is his toughness and willingness to go after every loss ball or rebound. He is one of the better rebounding guards in the NBA but today we don’t see him getting to double-digit boards in what could be a limited capacity. Hart is averaging 11.4 rebounds per game in his last 10 games so slightly Under this Total and he has averaged just 7.3 RPG in the last three games of this series.

ASA play on OVER 21.5 Points Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers

When you talk about the Pacers, naturally the conversation revolves around Haliburton, but Siakam is the guy you can count on most for scoring in clutch situations. We know Siakam’s usage rate will be high in this elimination game and the Knicks are without their best defender in Anunoby and Josh Hart is not 100%. Siakam had his way in Game 6 with 25-points on 11 of 21 shooting but only played 30 minutes in the Pacers win. He has scored 22+ points against the Knicks in 3 of the last four games and the game he didn’t post a big scoring number was the blowout home win in Game 4 when he played just 22 minutes. Siakam will get his share of looks in this game and should see field goal attempts of 19 which will be enough to push his scoring total Over the number.

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