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NASCAR PREDICTION | Go Bowling Watkins Glen | August 20th

Nascar Cup bet for the Go Bowling Watkins Glen 2023

It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200 AND had him packaged for a Top 10 finish. Today we expecting the Chevy’s to dominate in the Go Bowling at Watkins Glen.

RACE WINNER – Chase Elliot +$550 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. We have been patiently waiting for this race for an opportunity to back Chase Elliott and the #9 Chevrolet. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Elliott finish 4th. Elliott and the #9 have yet to win this season but he has been fantastic on the road courses with three top 5 finishes. In the last four races on this particular track, he has finished 4th, 2nd and won twice. The #9 didn’t have a great practice run yet he is still the odds-on favorite to win this race at +550. That should tell us enough.

TOP 3 FINISHER – Kyle Larson +$140 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. This is a great spot to back the Rick Hendrick #5 Chevrolet and Kyle Larson. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Larson who won. Larson has a solid track record on road courses with an average finish of 12.6. In 16 races on road courses, he has 4 wins, 7 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s. He’s won at Watkins Glen two straight years. Can he make it 3 straight? You bet he can!

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Nascar bets | Verizon 200 | Brickyard Indianapolis

ASA’s Nascar free bet – August 13th

TOP 3 FINISHER – Michael McDowell +$700 – This is tremendous value for the #34 Ford and McDowell who will start in the second row on today’s road course. McDowell has been one of the best in field when it comes to road courses and with the 3rd best driver rating, average running position and average finish. Front Row Motorsports easily had the best cars in the practice rounds with McDowell posting the fastest lap at 99.881mph. In the overall practice rounds the #34 was the best car on the track and we like McDowell’s chances for a Top 3 finish.

TOP 10 FINISHER – Michael McDowell -$115 – We are also planning on a small wager on the #34 car for a Top 10 finish.

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NFLx Quarterback rotations | 2023

NFL preseason Quarterback rotations by teams – by Point Train Consultants

If you are going to bet the preseason you better know who’s playing QB for both teams involved in the contest. It’s not always about the #1’s and how many reps the starters are going to get. You will also want to familiarize yourself with the 2nd and 3rd-stringer and how much playing time they are scheduled to get. Concerning all positions on the field, starters for each team will play early on, most importantly the offensive line if a starting quarterback is under center. Later in games when you have backups on the field, an athletic QB that can scramble and make plays with his feet becomes a valuable asset when wagering on exhibition games. Another important factor to give you an edge may be the experience of the reserve QB’s or if it’s an open competition for the starting job. A few teams that stand out to us with strong quarterback rotations include: Ravens, Eagles, Steelers, Colts and 49ers.

It’s not always as important who the starting QB may be for the NFLx, but who finishes the game. Spend some time researching the backup QB’s and looking at local newspaper feeds for hints on how much each quarterback is expected to play. Another solid wagering strategy in preseason using this philosophy is second-half wagering so keep that in mind also.

This is just one tool to use when it comes to handicapping the preseason and we hope it helps you make a few extra bucks before the real season starts.

AFC East

Bills: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley

Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skylar Thompson, James Blackman

Patriots: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Trace McSorley, Malik Cunningham

Jets: Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Chris Streveler

AFC North

Bengals: Joe Burrow, Trevor Siemian, Jake Browning, Reid Sinnett

Browns: Deshaun Watson, Joshua Dobbs, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kellen Mond

Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Josh Johnson, Anthony Brown

Steelers: Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Tanner Morgan

AFC South

Colts: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger

Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard, Nathan Rourke

Texans: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, Case Keenum

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, Malik Willis

AFC West

Broncos: Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, Ben DiNucci

Chargers: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick, Max Duggan

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele, Chris Oladokun

Raiders: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O’Connell, Chase Garbers

NFC East

Commanders: Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett, Jake Fromm

Cowboys: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Will Grier

Eagles: Jalen Hurts, Marcus Mariota, Tanner McKee, Ian Book

Giants: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito

NFC South

Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, John Wolford

Falcons: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Logan Woodside

Panthers: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton, Matt Corral

Saints: Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Jake Haener

NFC North

Bears: Justin Fields, PJ Walker, Nathan Peterman, Tyson Bagent

Lions: Jared Goff, Nate Sudfeld, Hendon Hooker, Adrian Martinez

Packers: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford, Danny Etling, Alex McGough

Vikings: Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall

NFC West

49ers: Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen

Cardinals: Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, Jeff Driskel, David Blough

Rams: Matthew Stafford, Stetson Bennett, Brett Rypien, Dresser Winn

Seahawks: Geno Smith, Drew Lock, Holton Ahlers

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AFC East betting prediction | NY Jets Total Wins

AFC EAST

NFL WIN TOTAL – NY JETS UNDER 9.5 +140

Clearly the big offseason acquisition by the Jets was QB Aaron Rodgers which has New York in a frenzy and anointed as a Super Bowl contender. The reality is that this team had a win total a year ago of 5.5 which they surpassed with 7 wins in 2022-23. Of those 7 wins a year ago, only three came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. New York was VERY good defensively a season ago finishing 5th in total DVOA after facing eleven teams that ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. Rodgers numbers fell off last season in Green Bay with his worst career QBR of 39.3 and his lowest total passing yards in a season going back to 2013. His 6.8- yards per pass attempt was his second lowest average going back to 2006 and he threw 12 INT’s which is the second most of his career. We also can’t ignore Rodger’s age (39) and let’s face it; the Jets are one play away from having Zach Wilson as their starting QB. The biggest factor that will impact the Jets season is their schedule which is one of, if not the toughest in the NFL. New York must face the rest of the AFC East twice along with the AFC West and NFC East. They also get the Browns, Falcons and Texans who will be better this season than they were a year ago. The value in the number has us on the UNDER here.

OTHER JETS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         Jets to NOT make the Playoffs +110

·         RB Breece Hall OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS – *Only if Dalvin Cook is NOT added to the Jets roster* – Hall had 4 rushing TD’s a season ago in only 7 games. NY will employ a West Coast offense that features a strong rushing philosophy.

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AFC North betting prediction | Cleveland Browns Total Wins

AFC North Cleveland Browns Over 9.5 Wins

AFC NORTH

NFL WIN TOTAL – Cleveland Browns OVER 9.5 +120

We like the value in the Over-Under number as the Cleveland Browns win total projections a year ago was this same number of 9.5. That number was set last season knowing QB Deshaun Watson would not be under center for the first 11 games to start the season. In Watson’s previous three seasons in Houston, he threw for an average of 4,280 yards per season with 85 total touchdowns to 28 total interceptions. The Browns rely heavily on their running game and RB Nick Chubb who was 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards 2022 with 1,525 rushing yards. Chubb has essentially been a 1,000 yards rusher every season in the NFL (rushed for 996 as a rookie). Cleveland finished the year 8th in offensive DVOA, 6th best in rushing. The Browns defense slipped in 2022 to 23rd in defensive DVOA after ranking 11th the previous season. Cleveland addressed their holes on the defensive side of the football by signing a few key free agents and a solid draft class. Cleveland won 7 games a year ago with 6 of their nine losses coming by 1-score. The Browns had an average differential of minus -1.2PPG which was tied for 17th in the league. Cleveland plays the 23rd easiest schedule this season according to our data which has our model projecting them to finish with more than 10-wins.

OTHER BROWNS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         +390 to win the AFC North

·         QB Deshaun Watson OVER 3,500 total passing yards -112 – Watson has threw for over 3,800 yards in three seasons when he played a minimum of 15 games in Houston.  

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