Category: Articles

Posted on by

NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

BETTING ADVICE

BETTING ADVICE

Posted on by

College Football Week 0 Previews | By ASA

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Betting Preview

THE GAME

Florida State (13-1 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Georgia Tech (7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 12 PM ET – @ Dublin, Ireland

THE LINES – Florida State (-10.5) / O/U [55.5] 

FLORIDA STATE OFFENSE – 32.8 PPG (23rd) / 392.2 YPG (54th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 12.0 YPPT (12th)

FSU OFFENSIVE NOTES  – FSU’s starting QB this year is DJ Uiagalelei who previously was the starter at Clemson and Oregon State / FSU is ranked 81st in returning offensive production per ESPN S&P+ / FSU lost top 2 WR’s Coleman & Wilson both to the NFL – new starting WR’s are transfers from Bama who had 162 yards receiving last year & LSU who did not play last year / The Seminoles return 4 starters on the offensive line and they’ve combined to start 190 career games which is 3rd most nationally.

FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE – 19.8 PPG (17th) / 340.2 YPG (31st) / 4.9 YPP (23rd) / 17.2 YPPT (12th)

FSU DEFENSIVE NOTES – FSU returns 5 starters on defense and loses 6 of their top 9 tacklers from last season / The Noles bring back 50% of their overall tackles from last season which is 95th in the country / Florida State lost 5 starters in their defensive front 7 but pulled in replacement transfers from Georgia (DE who had 12 tackles last season) and Auburn (LB who had 28 tackles last season) / FSU finished in the top 20 nationally in pass defense last year but outside the top 60 in rush defense.

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE – 29.7 PPG (43rd) / 411.8 YPG (36th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 13.9 YPPT (49th)

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSIVE NOTES – GT is ranked 7th in the nation in returning offensive production per ESPN SP+ / QB Haynes King is back after throwing for over 2800 yards and rushing for over 800 yards last season / Tech led the ACC in rushing last year averaging 198 YPG / The Jackets bring back 4 starting offensive linemen who have combined for 128 career starts (13th in the country) / They return 86% of their offensive yards from last year which is 11th most in the nation.

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE – 30.8 PPG (100th) / 449.3 YPG (123rd) / 6.2 YPP (118th) / 14.6 YPPT (58th)

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSIVE NOTES – Tech finished 130th last season (out of 133 teams) defending the run allowing 223 YPG on the ground / GT has new DC Tyler Santucci who came over from Duke so he has some familiarity with FSU / Santucci will mainly run an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme / His Duke defense finished 18th nationally last year allowing 20 PPG / The Yellow Jackets ranked 105th in returning defensive production per ESPN SP+ / The Tech defense allowed at least 400 total yards in 10 of their 13 games last year.

THE GAME

SMU vs. Nevada Betting Preview

SMU (11-3 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Nevada (2-10 SU & 6-6 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 8 PM ET

THE LINES – SMU (-24.5) / O/U [56]

SMU OFFENSE – 36.4PPG (10th) / 446.9YPG (18th) / 6.0YPP (37th) / 12.3YPPT (12th)

SMU OFFENSIVE NOTES –  8 returning starters including QB Stone. SMU’s offense will be led by quarterback Preston Stone, who returns from a late season injury last season, after throwing for nearly 3,200YDS w/28 TD’s to 6 INT’s. With a talented receiving corps (averaged 270.4PYPG / 30th in 2023) and a solid offensive line, the Mustangs are expected to put up big numbers through the air. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th).

SMU DEFENSE – 19.2PPG (14th) / 315.5YPG (14th) / 4.5YPP (7th) / 16.5YPPT (21st)

SMU DEFENSIVE NOTES – The Mustangs went from allowing 6.1YPP in 2022 to giving up just 4.5YPP in 2023 (7th). The defense returns 7 starters from last year’s unit that ranked top 21 in several key categories. SMU’s defense did a great job getting off the field by holding opponents to 4.1 3rd down conversions per game (13th).

NEVADA OFFENSE – 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th)

NEVADA OFFENSIVE NOTES – The Wolfpack have struggled in recent years, including last season when they won 2 games, leading to a coaching change and an overhauled roster. Nevada had the 124th worst average point differential per game of minus -15.1PPG. QB Brendon Lewis returns for the Wolfpack who threw for 1,313 yards with 2 TD/6 INT and a passer rating of 33.3 (117th). The running game is their strength with their top two rushers (Dollars & Bianco) returning. The offensive line allowed 3.8 sacks per game last season (127th) and didn’t provide the running backs many open holes as they averaged 3.3YPR (117th).  

NEVADA DEFENSE – 33.5PPG (114th) / 440.9YPG (118th) / 6.7YPP (131st) / 13.2YPPT (96th)

NEVADA DEFENSIVE NOTES – Head coach Jeff Choate has a solid background defensively and has his work cut out for him this season. The Wolfpack have two DL starters returning, along with their corps of linebackers. The secondary needs to be completely rebuilt and will be their defensive Achilles heel. Nevada allowed 348.5PYPG (96th), 64.7% completion percentage (111th) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (118th).

YPP = Yards Per Play, YPPT = Yards Per Point

BETTING PICKS TODAY

FREE BETS DAILY

Posted on by

AFC Championship Bet | Cincinnati Bengals 9-1 odds | By Point Train

AFC Champions Longshot: Cincinnati Bengals +900 – By Point Train Consulting

Similar to our NFC prediction about the Falcons, scheduling plays a crucial role in our longshot pick for the AFC Champion, the Cincinnati Bengals. According to our metrics, the Bengals will face the 5th easiest schedule this season, a stark contrast to the tough schedule they had last year. Despite QB Joe Burrow being less than 100% for much of the season, the Bengals still managed to secure a 9-8 SU record. In 2023, they ranked 11th in total DVOA with an average point differential of -1.1 PPG.

We believe this season’s Bengals could resemble the 2022 team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season and narrowly lost to the Chiefs 20-23 in the AFC Championship game. That year, the Bengals were 4th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA. In today’s NFL, where offense reigns supreme, the Bengals have the firepower to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC title. With QB Burrow back from injury and two top-tier WRs in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals’ offense is a formidable force. Zack Moss, who rushed for 794 yards with the Colts last season, will take charge in the backfield.

While the Bengals’ defense regressed in 2023, much of that can be attributed to their tough schedule, with 11 of their 17 games against teams in the top half of the league in scoring. Despite this, they allowed just 22.6 PPG, below the combined average of 25.1 PPG of the league’s top 15 teams. Cincinnati made a few significant improvements on the defensive side of the football including a revamped secondary and should be a top 13 unit in 2024.

The Bengals’ primary challenge in winning the AFC North will be the Ravens, who won 13 games last season under John Harbaugh. However, within the division, both the Browns and Steelers have significant quarterback concerns and may struggle to maintain winning records. While the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins are serious contenders, the Bengals can match their offensive prowess if Burrow stays healthy. The Bengals have a legitimate shot at representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

BEST BETS TODAY

BETTING ARTICLES

Posted on by

Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

On Sale Bets

Recent Betting Articles

Posted on by

NFL Prediction | NFC Champions | Atlanta Falcons

By Point Train Consulting

NFL longshot – NFC Champions – Atlanta Falcons +1300

The schedule plays an important role here for the Falcons as they face one of, if not the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Atlanta was 7-10 last season with six of those losses coming in one score games. Despite the losing record the Falcons had an average differential of minus -3.1PPG over the course of entire season.

The addition of QB Kirk Cousins was a huge acquisition in the offseason and should be the missing link for the Falcons offense that ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game last season and 28th in completion percentage. Before getting injured, Cousins, was 216 of 311 passing (70%) for 2,331 yards with 18 TD’s to 5 INT’s and those types of numbers will translate to wins in the NFC. The Falcons have our 5th best rated offensive line this season which should provide a clean pocket for Cousins and open running lanes for Bijan Robinson, who rushed for over 970 yards in 2023.

Defensively the Falcons were solid a year ago ranking 10th in Yards Allowed p/Game overall, 7th in Yards p/Play allowed at 5.0Y.P.P.L. Atlanta’s defense did a great job of getting off the field ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion allowed p/Game at 4.5.

The Falcons should win the NFC South and have a very favorable overall record at the end of the regular season. The teams that are favored over the Falcons to come out of the NFC are the: 49ers (+250), Lions (+550), Eagles (+700), Cowboys (+700) and Packers (+800) and each of those teams could face serious obstacles this season. The Niners face a difficult schedule and the NFC West should be better this season so a repeat Super Bowl bid may be tough for San Francisco. The Lions should see a regression in their win total after a surprise season a year ago and a horrific defense. The Cowboys will do Cowboys thing again and Green Bay may be fool’s gold with a overrated QB in Jordan Love. The Eagles are the biggest threat in the NFC in our opinion.

Atlanta could conceivably end up being the host in the NFC Championship game and if they get to that point, we will have a great opportunity to bet back if need be. At +1300 this is a very viable option for a future bet on the Atlanta Falcons.

Don’t miss any of Point Train’s NFL action this season after coming off a tremendous season a year ago of plus +44.6 Net Units of profits and a 32-20 streak to end the year. Check out the winning offers here

ON SALE BEST BETS

BETTING INFORMATION