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NFL Prediction | NY Jets vs SF 49ers Preview | Sept 9 2024

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview for Monday Night Football – By ASA

NFL prediction Jets vs 49ers Game Overview: The NFL kicks off its 2024 season with a compelling matchup as the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. This game not only marks the beginning of the season but also the return of Aaron Rodgers for the Jets, aiming to erase the memory of last year’s four-snap season due to injury.

Betting Lines:

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Over/Under: 43.5 points

Moneyline: 49ers -198, Jets +165

Key Insights:

Public and Sharp Money: There’s significant public money on the 49ers, but sharp money has influenced the line movement towards the Jets, with the line movement from Jets +6 to +4.5

Injury Concerns: Christian McCaffrey’s health status for the 49ers is pivotal. If he plays, even not at 100%, his presence could significantly affect the game’s dynamics, potentially drawing defensive attention and opening up plays for other receivers like George Kittle. McCaffrey totaled over 2,000 total yards combined rushing and receiving in 2023.

Aaron Rodgers’ Return: Rodgers’ return adds an unpredictable element. His last full season showcased his ability to make big throws, which could challenge the 49ers’ defense, especially if the Jets’ young receiving corps steps up. The Jets RB Breece Hall rushed for 994 yards in 2023 at a 4.5-yards per carry average.

Defensive Matchup: The 49ers’ defense, despite some changes, remains formidable. However, the Jets’ defense, known for its tenacity, might give even the efficient Brock Purdy a run for his money. The Jets had the #3 rated DVOA defense a year ago, the 49ers were 4th.

Player Props:

George Kittle Over 42.5 Receiving Yards: Given his performance history and the matchup, this could be a safe bet if McCaffrey’s involvement is limited. Kittle averaged 60-receiving yards per game in 2023 and the Jets D allowed TE’s to average 48.5 receiving YPG.

Jake Moody Over 1.5 Field Goals: The Jets’ defense might force field goal attempts, making this a reasonable bet. Moody was 21/25 last season on FG’s and has range, hitting 2/3 from 50+ yards.

Jets vs 49ers prediction Conclusion: This game presents a unique betting opportunity due to Rodgers’ return and the 49ers’ position post-Super Bowl. Bettors should watch closely for any last-minute updates on McCaffrey’s status, as his participation could sway the game’s flow significantly.

Check out all the NFL predictions and betting previews ASA has to offer!

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NFC South Prediction | Atlanta Falcons | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC SOUTH PREDICTION – WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC South Prediction – Atlanta Falcons – OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

The Falcons won just 7 games last season yet their win total this year has jumped to 9.5.  We believe that is warranted and even a bit light as our projections have them winning at least 10 games.  They face the easiest schedule in the NFL according to PFF (including 9 home games) and we look for big improvement from their offense which averaged just 19 PPG last year but ranked in the top half of the NFL in YPG and YPP. 

Their offense wasn’t efficient last season averaging just 1 point for every 17.7 yards gained (29th in the NFL) but they should rank much higher in that category this year with veteran QB Kirk Cousins at the helm.  He will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL by most analysts and all 5 starters return from a year ago.  The offensive weapons are very good with RB Robinson, WR’s London, Mooney, and Moore to go along with TE Pitts.  This offense should be very good. 

Defensively they were decent last year ranking in the top 10 in YPP and YPG allowed and if they are just average this year, the offense should be able to outscore opponents.  Plus, new head coach Raheem Morris is a high level defensive mind so that side of the ball should be OK. 

Atlanta has terrible turnover luck last season finishing with a -12 TO margin which was 31st in the NFL.  It’s almost impossible to have a solid season in this league when your TO margin is that poor.  We expect that to be much better this year with Cousins under center after last year’s Falcon QB’s (Ridder & Heinecke) combined to throw 17 interceptions. 

The NFC South has been the worst division in football the last few years with Tampa finishing in 1st place with 8 wins (in 2022) and 9 wins (in 2023).  Besides Atlanta, there isn’t a single team in this division expect to have a winning record.  We like the Birds to take a big step this year and rule the NFC.

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Ravens vs Chiefs Preview | Sept 5th 2024 | By ASA

ASA breaks down the Ravens vs Chiefs game Thursday, Sept 5th 2024

Game Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Thursday, September 4, 2024

Kickoff: 8:20 PM EDT

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Universo

BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 3

Series Record: Chiefs lead 8-5

Last Meeting: Chiefs won 17-10 in the AFC Championship game on January 28, 2024, in Baltimore.

The Matchup:

The NFL season kicks off with a blockbuster game as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. This contest not only opens the season but also reignites a rivalry that has seen the Chiefs dominate recent encounters, winning five of the last six games against the Ravens.

Chiefs’ Perspective:

  • Patrick Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, will be looking to start the season with a bang. His ability to extend plays and find open receivers, especially Travis Kelce, who’s on the cusp of breaking franchise records, could be crucial.
  • The Chiefs’ defense, while missing key players like L’Jarius Sneed and Charles Omenihu, will face a stern test against the Ravens’ multifaceted offense. However, with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis III leading the pass rush, they aim to disrupt Lamar Jackson.

Ravens’ Perspective:

  • Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP, will be keen to prove his worth against Mahomes in what’s being billed as a historic matchup of multiple MVP winners in Week 1. His dual-threat capabilities, combined with the addition of RB Derrick Henry, could make the Ravens’ offense unpredictable.
  • Defensively, the Ravens led the league in sacks last season with 3.3 per game. With Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton anchoring the defense, they’ll look to contain Mahomes and limit the Chiefs’ explosive plays.

Key Matchups:

  • Lamar Jackson vs. Chiefs’ Defense: Can Jackson’s mobility and arm evade the Chiefs’ pass rush and find his receivers?
  • Patrick Mahomes vs. Ravens’ Defense: Will Mahomes’ magic find a way through one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses?
  • Ravens’ Run Game vs. Chiefs’ Run Defense: The Ravens’ ground attack against a Chiefs defense that struggled against the run last season.

Key Injuries and Absences:

  • Chiefs: WR Marquise Brown, RB Clyde-Edwards-Helaire, DE BJ Thompson, DE Charles Omenihu,
  • Ravens: LB Adisa Isaac, RB Rasheen Ali

What to Watch For:

  • **Can the Ravens’ defense replicate their AFC Championship performance and keep Mahomes in check?
  • **Will the Chiefs’ offensive line hold up against the Ravens’ formidable pass rush?
  • **The battle of the tight ends: Mark Andrews vs. Travis Kelce, both looking to make significant impacts.

This game isn’t just about bragging rights for the next season; it’s a statement game for both teams. The Ravens, with a chip on their shoulder after the AFC Championship loss, will look to prove they’re the team to beat in the AFC. Conversely, the Chiefs, under Andy Reid, aim to show that their championship window remains wide open. Expect a high-intensity, high-stakes game that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons.

This preview encapsulates the key elements of the game based on the information provided, focusing on player matchups, team dynamics, and the significance of the game in the context of the season opener.

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NFC North Prediction | Minnesota Vikings | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC North Prediction – Minnesota Vikings – Under 7.5 Wins (-150)

The Vikings lost 6 of their final 9 games last season after losing QB Cousins for the season with an Achilles injury.  Two of their three wins after Cousins injury came by a FG and they were outgained (YPP) in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Now with Cousins moving on to Atlanta, Minnesota will rely on journeyman QB Sam Darnold, who has a career record of 21-35 as a starter.

Defensively, they were atrocious defending the pass, which is obviously key in today’s NFL, ranking dead last in opponent completion percentage at over 70%.  They didn’t do much to upgrade the defensive backfield as their depth chart looks the same as last season with the exception of CB Griffin, who is expected to start despite playing in only 3 games with Carolina last season and has been on the decline since 2019. 

The struggling secondary won’t get much help from the defensive line which ranks 30th heading into the season per PFF.  This team may have to score in bunches to win games this year and we just don’t see that happening with their QB situation. 

The schedule won’t do them any favors either.  The Vikes will be facing the 5th most difficult schedule and their early slate is brutal.  After facing the NY Giants on the road to start the season (should be a pick-em type game), Minnesota faces San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay, NY Jets, and Detroit in succession and they’ll be underdogs in each of those games. 

The Vikings won 7 games last season and we just don’t see an improvement this year.  Under is the call.   

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AFC West Prediction | Denver Broncos Under 5.5 |

ASA’s AFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

ASA AFC West Prediction – Denver Broncos – UNDER 5.5 Wins (-115)

How are the Broncos going to score enough points to keep up in games?  They might have the worst group of skill position players in the NFL and it starts at QB.  Jarred Stidham, Zach Wilson, and rookie Bo Nix are battling it out to see who gets the nod as the starting signal caller.  Stidham and Wilson both have a career passing completion percentage below 60% and they’ve combined to throw more interceptions than TD’s.  Rookie Bo Nix will be the Week #1 starter and we are not overly confident in his ability to lead this Broncos team to 6+ wins.

Denver lost top WR Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland and starting RB Williams dropped off big time last season (just 3.5 YPC) after a serious knee injury in 2022.  Head coach Sean Payton said he wants to run the ball more to protect his inexperienced, and honestly just not very good, QB’s. 

The problem is, they weren’t great at running the ball last year (21st in YPC) and didn’t really do much in the off season to improve on that.  The Denver offense was just 1 of 7 in the NFL that didn’t have a player with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving and they’ll be worse on that side of the ball this year. 

The defense will most likely be improved but that won’t take much as they finished 27th in PPG allowed and 29th in YPG allowed. 

The Broncos face the 8th most difficult schedule this season (per PFF) and have only 8 home games.  They’ve always had a solid home field advantage, but on the road they have not had a winning record since 2015 (16-41 road record the last 7 years) and we project them to be underdogs in all of their road tilts this season. 

Believe it or not, the Broncos have averaged only 6 wins per season over the last 7 years and we project this to be one of their worst teams during that stretch.  5 or fewer wins for Denver this year is likely.

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