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NFL Player Props Chargers vs. Chiefs – Sept 15th

ASA NFL PLAYER PROPS THURSDAY NIGHT – LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Below you will find our NFL predictions for Thursday Sept 14th 2022

OVER 15.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110) – Chiefs Edwards-Helaire – There was talk in Chiefs camp this summer about throwing more to Edwards Helaire out of the backfield as a checkdown option for Mahomes. In the opener Helaire was targeted 3 times with 3 receptions for 32 yards. Last year against the Chargers in two games he totaled 4 receptions for 27 yards but his longest was 12 yards. On the season he had 129 total yards in 10 games or 12.9 receiving yards per game. You can see our logic for yourself, it may take just 1 reception for him to get Over this number. With the added pressure of the Chargers defensive line Mahomes may be forced to throw quicker underneath making this a solid NFL player props wager.

UNDER 284.5 PASSING YARDS – LA Chargers Herbert – These two teams attempted 39.9 passes per game last season which was 2nd to Tampa Bay. KC averaged 288.5 passing yards per game, the Chargers were right behind them at 282.4PYPG. In the two meetings between these two teams last year, Herbert had 74 total attempts for 517 total yards or 258.5 passing yards per game. The Chargers will look to establish the running game here as they did in week 1 against the Raiders with 31 rush attempts which was 10th most in the openers. The Chargers and Herbert are also without their top WR in Keenan Allen in this one which will also limit the passing attack. We like this NFL player props UNDER!

RUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 12.5 (-108) – Chargers Austin Ekeler – In an effort to keep the Chiefs potent offense off the field the Chargers game plan early on will be a heavy dose of the running game and Austin Ekeler. LAC rushed 31 times last week against the Raiders which was 10th most in the league, Ekeler had 14 of those. Last season Ekeler averaged 12.8 attempts per game in the regular season. In the two games with KC last year, he had 12 carries when he was splitting time with Justin Jackson, and 11 in the other meeting. The key to this NFL prediction winning is a close game throughout so the Chargers don’t abandon the running game.

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ASA NFL player props for Sunday, Sept 11th

Here are 3 NFL player prop bets or NFL predictions for opening weekend

Tony Pollard Over 17.5 Rec Yards (-115) 

TB @ DAL

There have been talks of the Cowboys using Pollard as a slot receiver for the 2022 season, and the departure of Amari Cooper opens up lots of targets in Dallas. Michael Gallup is still working his way back from an ACL tear and his availability is in serious question this week. Unproven rookie WR Jalen Tolbert would be the WR2, leaving Dak Prescott in need of some playmakers in a potential shootout with a total o/u of 50.5. Pollard should be heavily involved in all aspects this week, seeing plenty of opportunities out of the backfrield and the slot. 

Justin Jefferson Under 82.5 Rec Yards (-115)

GB @ MIN

A massive season is expected from Jefferson, but he draws a steep challenge in week 1 facing one of the best secondaries in the league. Jaire Alexander will likely shadow the 3rd year WR with Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas also taking a crack at him. In four games against Green Bay, Jefferson has averaged 70 yards per game, and that is including his explosion of 169 yards in week 10 of last year. Expect the Packers to force the ball elsewhere and make it a priority to limit his targets. 

Mitch Trubisky Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+140)

PIT @ CIN

Many experts around the league feel the Steelers offense will be sluggish in 2022, yet Trubisky has plenty of weapons at his disposal to keep up with Cincy’s high powered offense this week. Johnson, Claypool, Pickens, and Freiermuth will be valuable options for Trubisky as Pittsburg potentially plays from behind against the Super Bowl runner-ups.The Steelers O-line was horrid last year and comes into 2022 ranked 30th according to PFF, which will force them to throw the ball a ton once again. With plus odds, Trubisky is a value play to throw 2 TDs as one of our NFL predictions.

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ASA Big Ten Predictions 2022

2022 BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

  • Ohio State -225
  • Michigan +700
  • Wisconsin +1200              
  • Penn State +1400
  • Nebraska +2000
  • Iowa +2000
  • Minnesota +2500
  • Michigan State +2500
  • Purdue +3000
  • Maryland +15000
  • Illinois +20000
  • Indiana +25000
  • Rutgers +30000
  • Northwestern +30000

Ohio State (11-2 LY) is the Big Ten favorite for a reason. They didn’t win it last season so expect them to be highly motivated, they return 76% of their production overall, and had the best offensive efficiency in the nation, scored 45.7PPG (1st) and averaged 561.5YPG (1st).

Above all, the Buckeyes defense will need to be better in they want to win the National Championship as they allowed 336YPPG which was 52nd while allowing 22.8PPG (31st).

Ohio State is +$300 to win the National Championship but that is not enough to warrant an investment now.

Worth a look is Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud as the potential Heisman winner (+250) Stroud completed nearly 71% of his passes for over 3,800 total yards with 38 TD’s to only 5 INT’s last season and will put up huge number again this season.

BIG 10 CHAMPION – LONGSHOT – Wisconsin Badgers +1200

Going back to 2011 the Badgers have made it to the Big Ten Championship game 6 times, the same as Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 5 titles, the Badgers 2.

QB CONCERNS:

QB Graham Mertz is undoubtably the biggest question for the Badgers heading into the season, but he was solid in the spring.

Mertz will have to be much better this season after throwing 10 INT’s to 9 TD’s a year ago. Wisconsin ranked 52nd in OEFF, had the 18th best rushing YPG average at 210.8RYPG, but ranked 117th in passing YPG at 160.2PYPG. Behind Mertz is Chase Wolf a redshirt senior.

BADGER GROUND ATTACK: Top 22 in 4 of the past 5 seasons

Wisconsin may have the best running back in the country in Braelon Allen 1,268 rushing yards on a 6.8 YPA average with 12 TD’s last season. (RB trio includes: Mellusi, Guerendo). The have depth on the offensive line which are historically Wisconsin’s strength.

BADGER DEFENSE:

The defense under Jim Leonard will again be one of the best in the nation. Wisconsin allowed 7 or fewer points in 5 of 13 games and 16pts or less in 9 games and gave up just 16.2PPG which was 3rd best in CFB.

The Badger’s defense was 3rd in defensive efficiency a year ago, 1st in yards per play allowed at 4.0YPPL and allowed just 65.4 rushing yards per game which ranked 1st in the nation.  Wisconsin did a great job of keeping opposing offenses off the field, ranking 4th in Opponents 3rd down conversions per game at 3.8.

BADGERS HOME DOMINANCE:

The Badgers are 61-11 SU at home since 2011 and they’ve won those games by an average of 21.4PPG. The only Big Ten team with a better home record in that span is Ohio State at 68-6 (+26.1PPG).

In the last ten years the Badgers have the 11th best overall record at 104-39, +14.4PPG. The only Big 10 team with a better record in that same time frame is Ohio State at 123-20, +20.2PPG.

BIG TEN OVER/UNDER PREDICTION:

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS OVER 7.5 WINS – Purdue (9-4 SU last year) was top 31 in both DEFF and OEFF per footballoutsiders and return 70% of their production from last year’s squad. They have a favorable schedule and don’t face Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State this season and get Penn State and Iowa at home. The Boilermakers have a great QB in Aidan O’Connell who threw for over 3,700 yards last season with a 23-8 TD/INT ratio and he should put up big numbers again in 2022-23.

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Point Train NFL Predictions – 2022-23

POINT TRAIN PREDICTIONS – all odds found at FanDuel

NFC WINNER – Green Bay Packers +500

The Packers have rolled to an impressive 39-10 regular season record the last 3 seasons which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period.  The defense should be one of the best in the NFL this year.  Green Bay is loaded in the defensive backfield and it could be argued they have three #1 corners with Alexander, Stokes and Douglas.  If they can shore up their run defense this will be tough to beat.  Because of that, the offense may not have to do as much as previous seasons.  QB Rodgers lost some key weapons in the passing game but others have stepped up in early practices and he tends to make all of his receivers look good.  The running game will be among the best in the league as well with the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon.  The Packers have won the NFC North in 8 of the last 11 seasons and we expect them to come out on top in the division again this year.  They’ve come up short in the NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 seasons and we think they have a great shot to get over the hump this year. 

NFC LONGER SHOT – New Orleans Saints +1700

The Saints roster is loaded with talent.  It’s one of the best in the NFL.  Their defense last year was very good finishing in the top 5 in PPG, YPG, and YPP allowed.  Their offensive weapons are as good as any in the league with RB Kamara (suspension possible?) and WR’s Thomas (back from injury), Landry and rookie Olave.  Can QB Jameis Winston play well enough to get this team to the playoffs?  That’s they only question we have with this team.  If Winston plays well, the Saints should be very good.  Tampa remains the only other formidable team in the division and New Orleans has owned the Bucs beating them 7 straight times in the regular season, including 4-0 facing Brady at QB. 

AFC WINNER – Buffalo Bills +400

The Bills have lost in the AFC Divisional or Championship game in each of the last 2 seasons.  Both losses were versus the Chiefs including a 42-36 setback in OT to get to the AFC Title game last season.  If you remember Buffalo took a 3 point lead in that game with just 13 seconds remaining the Chiefs were able to tie it in regulation and win in OT.  Despite coming up short, the Bills were the best team in the NFL for the entirety of the season.  They led the NFL in point differential and yards per play differential, both by a wide margin.  All 12 of their wins came by more than 10 points and 6 of their 7 losses came by a TD or less with 2 coming in OT.  The defense led the NFL allowing just 18 PPG and in yards per play allowed at just 4.8.  The offense should be great this year with QB Allen working with some high end weapons again this season.  If the offensive line can improve just a bit, watch out.  The AFC East is a fairly weak and the Bills are definitely the class of the division.  Buffalo finally gets to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC LONGER SHOT – Indianapolis Colts +1200

The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year and they sit in one of the weakest divisions in football, the AFC South.  Houston and Jacksonville are projected to be 2 of the worst teams in the NFL once again and Tennessee had the lowest point differential of any team that won their division.  Despite finishing 2nd last year, the Colts point differential was 21 points better than the Titans.  An upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan should help significantly as Wentz was a disaster last season.  We project Indianapolis to win the division this year and at 12/1 they are not a bad investment to win it all.

SUPER BOWL WINNER – Buffalo Bills +650

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Green Bay Packers Total Win prediction 2022

By ASA – Green Bay Packers Total Win Prediction 2022 – OVER 10.5 WINS

Did you know Green Bay has the 2nd most overall victories at 782 in league history? The Packers are going to add to that win total this season with 11 or more wins. Scheduling has a lot to do with it as they play in a weak NFC North Division.

No other team in the NFC North had a winning record last season and only Minnesota has had a winning record in the past three years.

                               2021       2020       2019

Vikings                 8-9          7-9          10-6

Bears                     6-11       8-8          8-8

Lions                      3-13-1   5-11       3-12

The Vikings and Bears have new coordinators in place and are completely changing their defensive schemes so expect slow starts for both. We do expect the Lions to be improved this season, but they are not a threat to Green Bay at the top of the Division.

Looking closer at those three other NFC North teams, none were in the top half of the league in overall (offensive/defensive) efficiency stats. The Packers were 8th overall in the NFL.

The Packers have won 13 games the previous three seasons with an average Margin of Victory at Plus +5.1PPG. Last year the Pack won 13 regular season games and the last game of the year versus Detroit was a meaningless loss.

Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home with a 22-2 SU at home the previous three seasons so expect another 7 or 8 victories as the home team (one game against the Giants is in London).

Last season they owned a top 10 defense and expectations they’ll be better this year even with the loss of ZaDarius Smith (Vikings). The Packers drafted two Georgia (#1 in NCAA last year in D) defensive players (Walker, Wyatt) who expect to make an immediate impact.

The rushing offense was below or around league average in most key rushing categories, but it should be one of the better units in the NFL with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion toting the football.

The Packers WR’s will be a question mark with the loss of Adams but they still have capable receivers in: Lazard, Cobb and Sammy Watkins. They drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who has had outstanding preseason camp and is our longshot offensive rookie of the year bet at 100-1. The question we ask is this: Do the wide receivers need to great for Aaron Rodgers or does Rodgers throw those guys open? In the last three years Rodgers has 12,416 total passing yards, 111 TDs / 13 INT’s and a 72% completion percentage.

The Packers were underdogs just 4 times last season and won all 4. We have them favored in 14 of their games this season and would predict losses at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Other than those two teams the Packers face a very winnable schedule which ranks 22nd in SOS this season.

We like Green Bay to win more than 11 games.