Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL Free Bet today | Patriots vs Jets prediction | Sept 19 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL free bet today – Patriots vs Jets – Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots TEAM TOTAL UNDER 16.5 POINTS

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • I can’t get involved with a team or side here as the jury is still out on Rodgers/Jets offense and the Patriots have key injuries on their offensive line.
  • I will sprinkle a few shillings on the UNDER in the Patriots team total.
  • New England has taken a very conservative approach offensively with the 8th fewest pass attempts per game. They run it at a very high rate and QB Brissett has just 270-total passing yards in two games.
  • The Pats will commit to the run early and often and if their defense can contain the Jets offense early on, they’ll be content to play field position and hope to win late.
  • New England has scored 3, 15 and 10-points in the last three meetings with New York.
  • I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than 2 touchdowns in this one.

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WNBA Free Bet | Lynx vs Sun | Sept 17th 2024

ASA WNBA free bet on Connecticut Sun -1 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 7PM ET

**GET A SALE PRICED PLAYOFF PACKAGE TODAY!* AS OF THIS POSTING ASA IS KILLING IT IN THE WNBA THIS SEASON WITH A CURRENT 24-10 STREAK AS OF SEPT 17TH. O/U BETS ARE ON AN INSANE 16-4 RUN!

This is a big game for both teams as they sit 2nd and 3rd in the overall playoff standings. The Lynx have a 2 game lead over the Sun with two games remaining. Minnesota has the Sparks on deck so even if they split, they will lock up the 2-seed if the Sun goes 2-0.

We have Minnesota graded slightly higher than NY as the best team in the W. With the #2 seed essentially locked up we expect them to rest players and get ready for a playoff run.

Connecticut mathematically can move up to the #2 seed (unlikely as the Lynx would have to lose 2 straight) or could fall to the #4 seed behind the Aces.

A letdown here by the Lynx would be understandable considering they are coming off a huge win against the Liberty on Sunday. The Sun are coming off a loss in Las Vegas and should be motivated here back at home.

Connecticut has won 4-straight in the series and 8 of the last ten. The Sun are 26-12 SU the last two seasons at home with an average +/- of +6.2PPG. Our WNBA free bet is on the Connecticut Sun to win against the Minnesota Lynx.

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NFL Prop Bets | Bijan Robinson | Sept 16th 2024

ASA 2 free player prop bets – Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson

OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta attempted the 3rd most rushing attempts per game in 2023 at 30.7. In the opener against the Steelers the Falcons fed Robinson 18 times for 68 yards. He also had 43 receiving yards on 7 targets. Robinson obviously has breakaway or big play ability with two 30+ yards rushing plays and one 40+. He will face an Eagles defense that allowed 163 rushing yards at 7.8-yards per rush in the opener to the Packers. Last season the Eagles ranked 11th in rushing yards per game allowed and 19th in rushing yards per attempt. Philadelphia was 30th in passing yards allowed per game in 2023, giving up 255.7PYPG. Robinson has gone Over 100 total rushing/receiving yards in 5 of his last nine games. With the Falcons trying to protect an immobile QB Cousins we expect a heavy usage rate for Robinson here.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mystics vs Sky Prediction | Sept 11 2024

ASA WNBA free play on Washington Mystics +1 at Chicago Sky, 8PM ET

These two teams have near identical records with the Mystic 14-24 SU, the Sky are 13-22 SU. The Mystic though have been under-valued by the oddsmakers all season long with a 23-11-1 ATS record compared to the Sky who are 16-19 ATS.

Washington has played well of late with a 5-2 SU record their last seven games which includes several quality wins. The two losses in that stretch came to the Lynx and Sun who are two of the best four teams in the league. Also included in that stretch is a road win against this same Sky team with Angel Reese in the lineup for Chicago.

The Sky had lost 7 straight games prior to winning their last two against the Sparks and Wings. The most recent win was an upset as they were without Reese (injured out for the season) yet won 92-77 at home over the Wings as a +4-point dog.

Since the Olympic break the Mystics have played much better than the Sky with a Net rating of -1.8 compared to the Sky who have a Net rating of -5.2.

This will be a tight game but we like the Mystic to prevail by single-digits.

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NFL Prediction | NY Jets vs SF 49ers Preview | Sept 9 2024

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview for Monday Night Football – By ASA

NFL prediction Jets vs 49ers Game Overview: The NFL kicks off its 2024 season with a compelling matchup as the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. This game not only marks the beginning of the season but also the return of Aaron Rodgers for the Jets, aiming to erase the memory of last year’s four-snap season due to injury.

Betting Lines:

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Over/Under: 43.5 points

Moneyline: 49ers -198, Jets +165

Key Insights:

Public and Sharp Money: There’s significant public money on the 49ers, but sharp money has influenced the line movement towards the Jets, with the line movement from Jets +6 to +4.5

Injury Concerns: Christian McCaffrey’s health status for the 49ers is pivotal. If he plays, even not at 100%, his presence could significantly affect the game’s dynamics, potentially drawing defensive attention and opening up plays for other receivers like George Kittle. McCaffrey totaled over 2,000 total yards combined rushing and receiving in 2023.

Aaron Rodgers’ Return: Rodgers’ return adds an unpredictable element. His last full season showcased his ability to make big throws, which could challenge the 49ers’ defense, especially if the Jets’ young receiving corps steps up. The Jets RB Breece Hall rushed for 994 yards in 2023 at a 4.5-yards per carry average.

Defensive Matchup: The 49ers’ defense, despite some changes, remains formidable. However, the Jets’ defense, known for its tenacity, might give even the efficient Brock Purdy a run for his money. The Jets had the #3 rated DVOA defense a year ago, the 49ers were 4th.

Player Props:

George Kittle Over 42.5 Receiving Yards: Given his performance history and the matchup, this could be a safe bet if McCaffrey’s involvement is limited. Kittle averaged 60-receiving yards per game in 2023 and the Jets D allowed TE’s to average 48.5 receiving YPG.

Jake Moody Over 1.5 Field Goals: The Jets’ defense might force field goal attempts, making this a reasonable bet. Moody was 21/25 last season on FG’s and has range, hitting 2/3 from 50+ yards.

Jets vs 49ers prediction Conclusion: This game presents a unique betting opportunity due to Rodgers’ return and the 49ers’ position post-Super Bowl. Bettors should watch closely for any last-minute updates on McCaffrey’s status, as his participation could sway the game’s flow significantly.

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