Author: Lee Kostroski

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions | September 22nd 2024

Chiefs vs Falcons preview

NFL Game Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs – September 22, 2024

ASAWins Team breaks down the Sunday Night game.

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction Game Details:

  • Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM EST
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Betting Odds:

  • Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3, Atlanta Falcons +3
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Falcons +145

Injury Updates:

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Isiah Pacheco is out with an ankle injury, which could significantly impact the Chiefs’ running game.
  • Hollywood Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also sidelined, with both on the Injured Reserve, severely limiting the Chiefs’ offensive options in the receiving and running games.

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Nate Landman and Milo Eifler are out, impacting the linebacker depth for the Falcons.

Game Analysis:

Chiefs’ Offense: Despite injuries, Patrick Mahomes continues to lead one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. With Rashee Rice stepping up in the absence of top receivers, the Chiefs might lean heavily on Rice and Travis Kelce for aerial dominance. The running game, however, faces a significant challenge with Pacheco out, possibly relying more on Carson Steele and Samaje Perine to manage the ground game.

Falcons’ Offense: The Falcons come off a dramatic victory against the Eagles, where Kirk Cousins showed resilience, throwing for 396 yards. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been pivotal in the run game, providing a balanced attack that could exploit the Chiefs’ defense, which has shown vulnerabilities against strong running teams.

Defensive Matchup: The Chiefs’ defense, despite missing key players, has managed to keep games competitive. However, their performance against the run might be tested by the Falcons’ robust running backs. Conversely, the Falcons’ defense needs to contain Mahomes, which is easier said than done, but their recent performance suggests they might have a strategy to at least keep the game close.

Key Betting Insights:

  • The Chiefs, as road favorites of 3 or more points following a win, have not covered the spread effectively in recent years. The Falcons though have been an uninspiring home dog with a 6-7 ATS in that role since 2020.
  • The over/under set at 46.5 reflects expectations of a high-scoring affair, considering both teams’ offensive capabilities, though the Chiefs’ injuries might suggest a lower scoring game if their offense struggles.

Fantasy and Player Insights:

  • Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce for the Chiefs, along with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts for the Falcons, are expected to be key fantasy performers. However, Kirk Cousins might be a riskier start given the Chiefs’ defensive reputation.

Chiefs vs Falcons prediction Conclusion: This game pits the offensive prowess of the Chiefs against an improving Falcons team looking to make a statement. This game could come down to whomever has the football last. The over/under might lean towards the under given the injury situation, but with Mahomes under center, one can never count out a high-scoring affair. This game could go either way, making it one of the must-watch games of Week 3.

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NFL Free Bet today | Patriots vs Jets prediction | Sept 19 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL free bet today – Patriots vs Jets – Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots TEAM TOTAL UNDER 16.5 POINTS

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • I can’t get involved with a team or side here as the jury is still out on Rodgers/Jets offense and the Patriots have key injuries on their offensive line.
  • I will sprinkle a few shillings on the UNDER in the Patriots team total.
  • New England has taken a very conservative approach offensively with the 8th fewest pass attempts per game. They run it at a very high rate and QB Brissett has just 270-total passing yards in two games.
  • The Pats will commit to the run early and often and if their defense can contain the Jets offense early on, they’ll be content to play field position and hope to win late.
  • New England has scored 3, 15 and 10-points in the last three meetings with New York.
  • I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than 2 touchdowns in this one.

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WNBA Free Bet | Lynx vs Sun | Sept 17th 2024

ASA WNBA free bet on Connecticut Sun -1 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 7PM ET

**GET A SALE PRICED PLAYOFF PACKAGE TODAY!* AS OF THIS POSTING ASA IS KILLING IT IN THE WNBA THIS SEASON WITH A CURRENT 24-10 STREAK AS OF SEPT 17TH. O/U BETS ARE ON AN INSANE 16-4 RUN!

This is a big game for both teams as they sit 2nd and 3rd in the overall playoff standings. The Lynx have a 2 game lead over the Sun with two games remaining. Minnesota has the Sparks on deck so even if they split, they will lock up the 2-seed if the Sun goes 2-0.

We have Minnesota graded slightly higher than NY as the best team in the W. With the #2 seed essentially locked up we expect them to rest players and get ready for a playoff run.

Connecticut mathematically can move up to the #2 seed (unlikely as the Lynx would have to lose 2 straight) or could fall to the #4 seed behind the Aces.

A letdown here by the Lynx would be understandable considering they are coming off a huge win against the Liberty on Sunday. The Sun are coming off a loss in Las Vegas and should be motivated here back at home.

Connecticut has won 4-straight in the series and 8 of the last ten. The Sun are 26-12 SU the last two seasons at home with an average +/- of +6.2PPG. Our WNBA free bet is on the Connecticut Sun to win against the Minnesota Lynx.

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NFL Prop Bets | Bijan Robinson | Sept 16th 2024

ASA 2 free player prop bets – Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson

OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta attempted the 3rd most rushing attempts per game in 2023 at 30.7. In the opener against the Steelers the Falcons fed Robinson 18 times for 68 yards. He also had 43 receiving yards on 7 targets. Robinson obviously has breakaway or big play ability with two 30+ yards rushing plays and one 40+. He will face an Eagles defense that allowed 163 rushing yards at 7.8-yards per rush in the opener to the Packers. Last season the Eagles ranked 11th in rushing yards per game allowed and 19th in rushing yards per attempt. Philadelphia was 30th in passing yards allowed per game in 2023, giving up 255.7PYPG. Robinson has gone Over 100 total rushing/receiving yards in 5 of his last nine games. With the Falcons trying to protect an immobile QB Cousins we expect a heavy usage rate for Robinson here.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mystics vs Sky Prediction | Sept 11 2024

ASA WNBA free play on Washington Mystics +1 at Chicago Sky, 8PM ET

These two teams have near identical records with the Mystic 14-24 SU, the Sky are 13-22 SU. The Mystic though have been under-valued by the oddsmakers all season long with a 23-11-1 ATS record compared to the Sky who are 16-19 ATS.

Washington has played well of late with a 5-2 SU record their last seven games which includes several quality wins. The two losses in that stretch came to the Lynx and Sun who are two of the best four teams in the league. Also included in that stretch is a road win against this same Sky team with Angel Reese in the lineup for Chicago.

The Sky had lost 7 straight games prior to winning their last two against the Sparks and Wings. The most recent win was an upset as they were without Reese (injured out for the season) yet won 92-77 at home over the Wings as a +4-point dog.

Since the Olympic break the Mystics have played much better than the Sky with a Net rating of -1.8 compared to the Sky who have a Net rating of -5.2.

This will be a tight game but we like the Mystic to prevail by single-digits.

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