Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA Free Bet daily | Bucks vs Jazz | January 27 2025

ASA NBA play on OVER 236.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz, 9pm ET

The Jazz are one of, if not the worst defense in the league. Utah allows 1.191-points per possession, only the Wizards allow more. The Jazz rank 26th in opponents FG%, 27th in total points allowed per game and 14.3 made 3-pointers per game (27th). Utah has allowed 123+ points in four straight, 111 or more in 7 in a row. The Bucks are going to score 125 or more in this game with an offense that is 11th in OEFF at 1.147PPP, ranks 6th in FG% and 2nd in 3PT%. Milwaukee makes the 6th most 3-pointers in the NBA at 14.3 per game. The Bucks have scored 117 or more points in 6 straight games and 122+ in five of those six. Utah is 20th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.119PPP and average 111.3ppg with 13.8 made 3-pointers per game (11th). We need Utah to get to the 112 range for this Over to hit and we expect them to get there as they’ve scored that in 5 of their last six games. Milwaukee is 10th in pace of play, the Jazz are 14th so we should get plenty of possessions to push this Over the number.

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Free College Basketball Bet | Houston vs Kansas | Jan 25 2025

#765/766 ASA FREE BET ON Under 128.5 Points – Houston vs Kansas, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET

The 2 strongest units on each team are easily the defenses.  Both rank in the top 5 nationally in defensive efficiency and Houston ranks #1 in the country in PPG allowed while KU ranks #16.  Both defenses also match up very well vs the opposing offense.  Kansas does not shoot many 3’s (289th in 3 point attempts) so most of their work is done inside the arc.  Houston just happens to be the #1 defense in the nation defending inside the arc allowing opponents to make only 39% of their 2 point attempts.  On the other end, Houston makes 8.5 triples per game (111th) but the Kansas defense has been outstanding defending beyond the arc giving up just 28% which is good for 10th in the country..  Houston defense allows only 17.9 made FG’s per game which is ridiculous (1st nationally) while KU only allows 22 made FG’s per game (23rd best).  So in order to put up some points in this game, these teams better get to the FT line which we don’t see happening very often.  Houston ranks 334th in percentage of points from the FT line and Kansas ranks 364th (dead last) in that metric.  These teams have combined to play 34 games this season and 29 of them have gone Under the total.  Add another Under to the ledger here as we expect a low scoring, grinder type game.  

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NBA free bet Heat vs Trailblazers | Jan 11th 2025

ASA’s NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10PM ET

I may regret backing the Blazers here as I typically don’t like betting teams in their first home game off an extended road trip but there are enough other positives to back Portland here.

Let’s face it, not all NBA players are 100% motivated on a nightly basis, which can make games difficult to predict. I’m betting the Blazers will be ready for this Heat team after losing to them by 60-points in late March a year ago. That is not a typo…60-point beat down by the Heat in Miami.

The Heat are without suspended Jimmy Butler and 2-3 SU their last five games. They are coming off a pair of road wins against the Warriors and Jazz, but the Heat have struggled as a road favorite this season going 1-6 ATS.

On that note, the Blazers have made backers money as a home underdog with a 9-5 ATS record.

Miami isn’t a great shooting team so we see them exploiting a bad Blazer FG% defense to win this game by margin.

Lastly, there was an immediate influx of money on the Heat, yet the line didn’t move as it normally would have in the Miami’s favor. We will make a light bet on the Blazers and the points tonight.

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NBA free bet | Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz Prediction | 1-7-2025

ASA NBA free bet on OVER 238.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9PM ET

The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games.

Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those game the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games.

While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th.

We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th.

Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

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