Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL Player Props Thursday NFL Steelers vs. Browns

NFL player prop bets for Thursday, Sept 22nd 2022

KAREEM HUNT – OVER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Hunt had 16 receiving yards last week against the Jets and 24 the week before versus Carolina. Dating back to last season he has averaged 23-receiving yards per game. Hunt has been targeted 6 times in two games and should see his fair share of looks in this game. Pittsburgh was 14th in the NFL a year ago in receiving yards allowed to running backs at an average of 38.2 per game. With the high winds in Cleveland tonight expect plenty of check-downs to the backs.

NICK CHUBB – OVER 6.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Pittsburgh was 14th in the NFL a year ago in receiving yards allowed to running backs at an average of 38.2 per game. With the high winds in Cleveland tonight expect plenty of check-downs to the backs. Chubb literally needs just one ball thrown his way to eclipse this number. Last week he had 26-receiving yards on 3-receptions with 3 targets. Last season Chubb averaged 1.7 receptions per game and 12.4-receiving yards per contest.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS – UNDER 16.5 POINTS – The Steelers are averaging 18.5PPG which is 22nd in the NFL. That average is misleading though as they have just 1 offensive TD on the season. Pittsburgh is 30th in both yards per game gained and Yards Per Play at 4.3. The Steelers have just 2 Red Zone attempts this season and have benefitted with great field position with turnovers forced by their defense (6 in two games). The Steelers current estimated points per game is 14.5, one of the lowest numbers in the NFL. The windy conditions certainly won’t help in this one. Bet Under.

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ASA Free college football bet BYU vs. South Florida – Sept 3

ASA free college bet on BYU / SOUTH FLORIDA OVER 58 total points

These two teams produced 62 total points a year ago and went OVER the total of 53.5.

Both return a ton of production from a year ago and shouldn’t miss a beat heading into this season. BYU returns 88% of their productions, South Florida 86%. Neither defense was very good a year ago and should give up points in the opener. The Bulls ranked: 117th in Points Allowed Per game 36.3. 97th in Yards Per Point Allowed at 13.2. South Florida gave up 40 or more points in 6 of 12 games. BYU had a few issues of their own defensively: The Cougars ranked 103rd in Red Zone Scoring Percentages allowed at 88.37. 108th in 3rd Down Conversions Per Game Allowed. 51st in Points Per Game allowed (25.7PPG). Overall, when it came to defensive efficiency BYU was 83rd overall, SF was 120th.  BYU had the 4th most efficient offense in college football a season ago and put up an average of 30.9PPG. With 8 starters back on that side of the football the Cougars will be as good if not better this season. South Florida was 83rd in OFEI last year but will be MUCH better with nearly everyone back. The Bulls averaged 21.8PPG and did score 27+ in 6 of their last ten a year ago. The number is set slightly to low on this game and we will bet the OVER.

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ASA NFL free pick Packers vs. Saints, Friday 8PM ET

NFL free pick Green Bay Packers -3 vs. New Orleans Saints

ASA has you covered with a free NFL pick on Friday evening when the Saints and Packers meet in Green Bay. The Packers offense looked much better than the Saints in the opening game, the defenses were about even. Green Bay’s offense will be the difference in this game.

The Packers had over 430-yards of total offense last week  at 6.6 YPPL against a very good 49ers defense. They turned the ball over too many times though which cost them dearly.  QB Jordan Love was 13/24 for 176 passing yards with 2 TD’s but also threw 3 INT’s. Two of those picks were basically on his WR’s. The running game was solid with RB Tyler Goodson who ran for 37 yards on 12 carries.

The Packer defense is going to be improved this season and had a tremendous week of practice against the Saints. Last week, Green Bay’s defense held the Niners to just 328 total yards (6.07 YPPL).

The Saints QB’s Ian Book and Andy Dalton didn’t show much in their preseason opener with 140 yards passing against a bad Texans defense in the opener.

The Saints running game struggled with 3.5-Yards per Carry or 130YDS on 37 touches. Overall, the Saints offense mustered just 270 total yards against a Texans defense that was 23rd in Defensive efficiency a year ago.

The Saints defense played well allowing just 275 total yards or 5.18YPPL last week but that came against a Texans offense that isn’t very good.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is on an 0-4 SU preseason run but should snap that streak with a winning football bet here.

This is the Packers only home game and they are off a loss in San Francisco so expect a little extra motivation here and a win by more than 3-points.

Be sure to check back here daily for your next NFL free pick by ASA.

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ASA MLB prediction White Sox vs. Tigers

ASA player prop: OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS Lance Lynn – Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers, 2PM ET

Lynn is a solid strikeout pitcher with the 7th highest K/rate (9.35) per 9 innings on the board today and he’s facing a Tigers team that isn’t swinging well right now. Detroit is 22nd in the Bigs in K’s per game at 8.71 and they’ve been especially bad against right-handed starters with 6.7 per game. The Tigers hit just .210 as a team against righties and have been worse yet in their last ten games hitting just .195 with an average of 8.7 K’s per game. Recently, the Tigers have 152 K’s in their last 14 games which is the most in baseball. In that 14-game stretch they are striking out once every 3.04 at bats. Yesterday the Tigers struck out eleven times against the White Sox staff. Lynn has 62 K’s on the season in 59.7 innings of work after throwing 176 K’s a season ago in 157 innings. He has 6 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last five games. Lynn faced this Detroit lineup in mid-June and had 4 strikeouts in 4 innings of work. We expect a longer outing here and with more than 1 K per inning.

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ASA MLB free pick – Player Prop Marlins vs Braves

ASA player prop: OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS Jesus Luzardo – Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves, 1PM ET

The Braves are one of the best offenses in baseball, but they are certainly free-swingers at the plate with an average of 9.29 K’s per game which is 29th worst in baseball. Miami is sending Jesus Luzardo to the hill today to face the Braves and he’s a strikeout pitcher. Luzardo has 5 or more K’s in every start this season but one with 52 strikeouts on the season in just 41 innings of work. His K/9 inning rate of 11.41 is is the 4th highest among all starters today and he’s coming off his best start of the season with 6 K’s, 1 hit and 0 earned runs versus the Cubs. He also faced the Braves in late April of this season and struck out 8 in five innings of work.