Author: Lee Kostroski

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AFC East betting prediction | NY Jets Total Wins

AFC EAST

NFL WIN TOTAL – NY JETS UNDER 9.5 +140

Clearly the big offseason acquisition by the Jets was QB Aaron Rodgers which has New York in a frenzy and anointed as a Super Bowl contender. The reality is that this team had a win total a year ago of 5.5 which they surpassed with 7 wins in 2022-23. Of those 7 wins a year ago, only three came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. New York was VERY good defensively a season ago finishing 5th in total DVOA after facing eleven teams that ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. Rodgers numbers fell off last season in Green Bay with his worst career QBR of 39.3 and his lowest total passing yards in a season going back to 2013. His 6.8- yards per pass attempt was his second lowest average going back to 2006 and he threw 12 INT’s which is the second most of his career. We also can’t ignore Rodger’s age (39) and let’s face it; the Jets are one play away from having Zach Wilson as their starting QB. The biggest factor that will impact the Jets season is their schedule which is one of, if not the toughest in the NFL. New York must face the rest of the AFC East twice along with the AFC West and NFC East. They also get the Browns, Falcons and Texans who will be better this season than they were a year ago. The value in the number has us on the UNDER here.

OTHER JETS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         Jets to NOT make the Playoffs +110

·         RB Breece Hall OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS – *Only if Dalvin Cook is NOT added to the Jets roster* – Hall had 4 rushing TD’s a season ago in only 7 games. NY will employ a West Coast offense that features a strong rushing philosophy.

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AFC North betting prediction | Cleveland Browns Total Wins

AFC North Cleveland Browns Over 9.5 Wins

AFC NORTH

NFL WIN TOTAL – Cleveland Browns OVER 9.5 +120

We like the value in the Over-Under number as the Cleveland Browns win total projections a year ago was this same number of 9.5. That number was set last season knowing QB Deshaun Watson would not be under center for the first 11 games to start the season. In Watson’s previous three seasons in Houston, he threw for an average of 4,280 yards per season with 85 total touchdowns to 28 total interceptions. The Browns rely heavily on their running game and RB Nick Chubb who was 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards 2022 with 1,525 rushing yards. Chubb has essentially been a 1,000 yards rusher every season in the NFL (rushed for 996 as a rookie). Cleveland finished the year 8th in offensive DVOA, 6th best in rushing. The Browns defense slipped in 2022 to 23rd in defensive DVOA after ranking 11th the previous season. Cleveland addressed their holes on the defensive side of the football by signing a few key free agents and a solid draft class. Cleveland won 7 games a year ago with 6 of their nine losses coming by 1-score. The Browns had an average differential of minus -1.2PPG which was tied for 17th in the league. Cleveland plays the 23rd easiest schedule this season according to our data which has our model projecting them to finish with more than 10-wins.

OTHER BROWNS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         +390 to win the AFC North

·         QB Deshaun Watson OVER 3,500 total passing yards -112 – Watson has threw for over 3,800 yards in three seasons when he played a minimum of 15 games in Houston.  

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NBA Player Prop Bets – Wednesday, March 22nd

ASA has produced a MASSIVE NBA Player Prop season with a 107-73 record between pay & free picks

ASA play on OVER 25.5 POINTS – Anthony Davis – LA Lakers

The Lakers center should be inline for a big game against the Suns who will be without starting center Deandre Ayton. We also like the fact Davis is coming off a subpar game against the Magic where he scored just 15-points. Prior to that game he had scored 26 or more points in 7 of this last nine games. He is averaging 26.6PPG over his last ten contests. In the lone meeting earlier this season that AD faced the Suns he put up a monster 37-points.

ASA play on OVER 13.5 POINTS – Cam Reddish – Portland Trailblazers

Reddish is slated to start in the shooting guard position and should be up for a big game against the Jazz. Utah has struggled to stop opposing SG’s as they give up 25.6PPG which is the highest number in the NBA. Utah is 24th in defensive efficiency rating overall and they’ve been even worse in their last five games allowing 1.200-points per possession. Reddish is averaging 11.4PPG in his last ten games but with the extended minutes with the start tonight we expect a big game.

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NBA free predictions from ASA – March 7th

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -2.5 @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET

The first question I asked myself when I looked at this line was, why are the Hawks favored here? Atlanta was recently a -7.5-point home favorite over the Wizards at home and lost 116-119. That tells us this line should be a pick’em which means the oddsmakers are baiting us into betting the Wiz. Washington is in a tough scheduling situation here having played last night and on March 3rd and 4th. That makes this their 4th game in six days which rarely happens in the NBA. Atlanta is off back-to-back losses in Miami and have been solid when coming off a loss with a 19-14 SU record. Washington is 15-15 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Washington’s starters saw heavy minutes last night in Detroit and they’ll have a tough time finding their legs in this one. Lay the points with Atlanta.

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College Basketball free bet – Jan 14th

#635 ASA FREE PLAY ON North Texas +4 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 2 PM ET

A battle of the 2 best teams in CUSA on Saturday afternoon.  These 2 just met a few weeks ago and FAU pulled the upset winning 50-46.  Both teams shot very poorly form the field but FAU, who rarely gets to the FT line, attempted 11 more freebies which was the difference in the game.   The thing is, FAU only scores around 13% of their points from the charity stripe (345th most nationally) while UNT scored 20% of their points from the FT line.  The Mean Green alson shoot it better from the stripe making 74% as a team compared to 68% for Florida Atlantic.  Thus, we don’t see that disparity happening again which gave the Owls a big edge in that game.  Needless to say UNT has been waiting for this rematch after blowing a 9 point lead with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the first meeting.  That was the Mean Green’s only CUSA loss of the season thus far.  FAU is 5-0 in league play but they’ve been winning by the skin of their teeth as of late.  Since their late come from behind 4 point win vs UNT, the Owls beat UAB at home by 2 points, topped Charlotte at home by 4 points, and just beat a bad FIU team on the road in OT on Wednesday night.  They are ripe to get picked off and North Texas is the team that can do it.  They play outstanding defense allowing only 53 PPG (3rd nationally) and the play at one of the slowest paces in the nation.  Thus why this total is in the low 120’s which makes the points even more valuable.  FAU is overvalued due to their current 14 game winning streak.  10 of those wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100.  The 3 wins they have inside the top 100 have come by 2, 2, and 4 points (vs UNT).  Last year the Mean Green were 3 points dogs here and won outright 54-51.  We give them a great shot to win here again so we take the points.