Author: Lee Kostroski

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ASA MLB prediction White Sox vs. Tigers

ASA player prop: OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS Lance Lynn – Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers, 2PM ET

Lynn is a solid strikeout pitcher with the 7th highest K/rate (9.35) per 9 innings on the board today and he’s facing a Tigers team that isn’t swinging well right now. Detroit is 22nd in the Bigs in K’s per game at 8.71 and they’ve been especially bad against right-handed starters with 6.7 per game. The Tigers hit just .210 as a team against righties and have been worse yet in their last ten games hitting just .195 with an average of 8.7 K’s per game. Recently, the Tigers have 152 K’s in their last 14 games which is the most in baseball. In that 14-game stretch they are striking out once every 3.04 at bats. Yesterday the Tigers struck out eleven times against the White Sox staff. Lynn has 62 K’s on the season in 59.7 innings of work after throwing 176 K’s a season ago in 157 innings. He has 6 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last five games. Lynn faced this Detroit lineup in mid-June and had 4 strikeouts in 4 innings of work. We expect a longer outing here and with more than 1 K per inning.

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ASA MLB free pick – Player Prop Marlins vs Braves

ASA player prop: OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS Jesus Luzardo – Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves, 1PM ET

The Braves are one of the best offenses in baseball, but they are certainly free-swingers at the plate with an average of 9.29 K’s per game which is 29th worst in baseball. Miami is sending Jesus Luzardo to the hill today to face the Braves and he’s a strikeout pitcher. Luzardo has 5 or more K’s in every start this season but one with 52 strikeouts on the season in just 41 innings of work. His K/9 inning rate of 11.41 is is the 4th highest among all starters today and he’s coming off his best start of the season with 6 K’s, 1 hit and 0 earned runs versus the Cubs. He also faced the Braves in late April of this season and struck out 8 in five innings of work.

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ASA MLB prediction Free pick

Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150) Mike Clevinger – San Diego Padres

62 strikeouts in 65 innings pitched, 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA. Washington strikesout 2nd least number of times per game at 7.22 and have been on fire hitting left-handed pitchers of late with a .292 team batting average and 3.8 K’s per 9/innings in their last ten games. Clevinger has had 5 or less strikeouts in 7 of his last ten starts. The Nats own the 11th best walk percentage in baseball at 8.9% and the 3rd best K percentage at 19.6%.

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ASA Big Ten Predictions 2022

2022 BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

  • Ohio State -225
  • Michigan +700
  • Wisconsin +1200              
  • Penn State +1400
  • Nebraska +2000
  • Iowa +2000
  • Minnesota +2500
  • Michigan State +2500
  • Purdue +3000
  • Maryland +15000
  • Illinois +20000
  • Indiana +25000
  • Rutgers +30000
  • Northwestern +30000

Ohio State (11-2 LY) is the Big Ten favorite for a reason. They didn’t win it last season so expect them to be highly motivated, they return 76% of their production overall, and had the best offensive efficiency in the nation, scored 45.7PPG (1st) and averaged 561.5YPG (1st).

Above all, the Buckeyes defense will need to be better in they want to win the National Championship as they allowed 336YPPG which was 52nd while allowing 22.8PPG (31st).

Ohio State is +$300 to win the National Championship but that is not enough to warrant an investment now.

Worth a look is Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud as the potential Heisman winner (+250) Stroud completed nearly 71% of his passes for over 3,800 total yards with 38 TD’s to only 5 INT’s last season and will put up huge number again this season.

BIG 10 CHAMPION – LONGSHOT – Wisconsin Badgers +1200

Going back to 2011 the Badgers have made it to the Big Ten Championship game 6 times, the same as Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 5 titles, the Badgers 2.

QB CONCERNS:

QB Graham Mertz is undoubtably the biggest question for the Badgers heading into the season, but he was solid in the spring.

Mertz will have to be much better this season after throwing 10 INT’s to 9 TD’s a year ago. Wisconsin ranked 52nd in OEFF, had the 18th best rushing YPG average at 210.8RYPG, but ranked 117th in passing YPG at 160.2PYPG. Behind Mertz is Chase Wolf a redshirt senior.

BADGER GROUND ATTACK: Top 22 in 4 of the past 5 seasons

Wisconsin may have the best running back in the country in Braelon Allen 1,268 rushing yards on a 6.8 YPA average with 12 TD’s last season. (RB trio includes: Mellusi, Guerendo). The have depth on the offensive line which are historically Wisconsin’s strength.

BADGER DEFENSE:

The defense under Jim Leonard will again be one of the best in the nation. Wisconsin allowed 7 or fewer points in 5 of 13 games and 16pts or less in 9 games and gave up just 16.2PPG which was 3rd best in CFB.

The Badger’s defense was 3rd in defensive efficiency a year ago, 1st in yards per play allowed at 4.0YPPL and allowed just 65.4 rushing yards per game which ranked 1st in the nation.  Wisconsin did a great job of keeping opposing offenses off the field, ranking 4th in Opponents 3rd down conversions per game at 3.8.

BADGERS HOME DOMINANCE:

The Badgers are 61-11 SU at home since 2011 and they’ve won those games by an average of 21.4PPG. The only Big Ten team with a better home record in that span is Ohio State at 68-6 (+26.1PPG).

In the last ten years the Badgers have the 11th best overall record at 104-39, +14.4PPG. The only Big 10 team with a better record in that same time frame is Ohio State at 123-20, +20.2PPG.

BIG TEN OVER/UNDER PREDICTION:

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS OVER 7.5 WINS – Purdue (9-4 SU last year) was top 31 in both DEFF and OEFF per footballoutsiders and return 70% of their production from last year’s squad. They have a favorable schedule and don’t face Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State this season and get Penn State and Iowa at home. The Boilermakers have a great QB in Aidan O’Connell who threw for over 3,700 yards last season with a 23-8 TD/INT ratio and he should put up big numbers again in 2022-23.

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Rickenbach Free MLB play July 25

MLB Monday Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET – Action on pitchers. Boston has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game last 16 games! Even taking out the crazy 28-5 loss to Toronto, the Red Sox have allowed 7.3 runs per game last 15 games! In other words, no matter the starting pitcher Boston has been giving up piles of runs. If Pivetta starts tonight, that is even better as he has allowed 20 earned runs in his 13.1 innings in the month of July! As for the Guardians, they have averaged 6 runs per game last 7 games and their last 6 games have averaged a total of 10 runs scored. I look for this one to get to double digits regardless of who is on the mound but will mention that Plesac is the expected starter and he has allowed 11 runs (8 earned) in 14.2 innings in the month of July. Look for a high-scoring game at Fenway Park tonight. Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston