Author: Lee Kostroski

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NASCAR PREDICTION | Go Bowling Watkins Glen | August 20th

Nascar Cup bet for the Go Bowling Watkins Glen 2023

It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200 AND had him packaged for a Top 10 finish. Today we expecting the Chevy’s to dominate in the Go Bowling at Watkins Glen.

RACE WINNER – Chase Elliot +$550 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. We have been patiently waiting for this race for an opportunity to back Chase Elliott and the #9 Chevrolet. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Elliott finish 4th. Elliott and the #9 have yet to win this season but he has been fantastic on the road courses with three top 5 finishes. In the last four races on this particular track, he has finished 4th, 2nd and won twice. The #9 didn’t have a great practice run yet he is still the odds-on favorite to win this race at +550. That should tell us enough.

TOP 3 FINISHER – Kyle Larson +$140 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. This is a great spot to back the Rick Hendrick #5 Chevrolet and Kyle Larson. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Larson who won. Larson has a solid track record on road courses with an average finish of 12.6. In 16 races on road courses, he has 4 wins, 7 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s. He’s won at Watkins Glen two straight years. Can he make it 3 straight? You bet he can!

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MLB Free bet | Nelly Sportsline | Aug 15th

Free pick – #969 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) 6:07 PM CT

Enjoy this MLB free bet from Nelly today. The lack of production over the weekend for Philadelphia was shocking, scoring just one run Saturday and Sunday in losses at home following a run of ten straight games with at least four runs. The Phillies have still averaged 5.6 runs per game in August while +23 in scoring as this is an elite NL contender that has a chance to repeat as NL champions, even if will again have to come through a wild card path. Philadelphia is 40-22 since June 3 and Zack Wheeler remains one of the best pitchers in the NL. His FIP of 3.06 is the fourth best in all of MLB among qualified starters even if he isn’t getting much attention in the Cy Young race, after finishing second in 2021 for the award. Yusei Kikuchi is having his best MLB season, but his FIP is 4.52 compared to his 3.53 ERA as a lot has gone right. His home run rate remains very high and while his run of starts since the All-Star break has been excellent, it seems like a significant outlier stretch against his career numbers. The Blue Jays do have excellent relief pitching numbers in recent weeks, but the unit was taxed over the weekend getting only one start of six innings over the past four games. In the past 10 games Philadelphia has averaged 7.8 runs per nine while batting .277 vs. left-handers, while posting a 21-16 record on the season vs. left-handed starters as this should be a favorable matchup for the Phillies to deliver, after being shutdown by quality right-handers over the weekend. The Blue Jays are just 34-42 vs. winning teams this season as Toronto hasn’t looked like the serious contender most expected to see this season. 

Take advantage of Nelly’s MLB picks here at ASAwins.com!

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Nascar bets | Verizon 200 | Brickyard Indianapolis

ASA’s Nascar free bet – August 13th

TOP 3 FINISHER – Michael McDowell +$700 – This is tremendous value for the #34 Ford and McDowell who will start in the second row on today’s road course. McDowell has been one of the best in field when it comes to road courses and with the 3rd best driver rating, average running position and average finish. Front Row Motorsports easily had the best cars in the practice rounds with McDowell posting the fastest lap at 99.881mph. In the overall practice rounds the #34 was the best car on the track and we like McDowell’s chances for a Top 3 finish.

TOP 10 FINISHER – Michael McDowell -$115 – We are also planning on a small wager on the #34 car for a Top 10 finish.

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AFC East betting prediction | NY Jets Total Wins

AFC EAST

NFL WIN TOTAL – NY JETS UNDER 9.5 +140

Clearly the big offseason acquisition by the Jets was QB Aaron Rodgers which has New York in a frenzy and anointed as a Super Bowl contender. The reality is that this team had a win total a year ago of 5.5 which they surpassed with 7 wins in 2022-23. Of those 7 wins a year ago, only three came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. New York was VERY good defensively a season ago finishing 5th in total DVOA after facing eleven teams that ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. Rodgers numbers fell off last season in Green Bay with his worst career QBR of 39.3 and his lowest total passing yards in a season going back to 2013. His 6.8- yards per pass attempt was his second lowest average going back to 2006 and he threw 12 INT’s which is the second most of his career. We also can’t ignore Rodger’s age (39) and let’s face it; the Jets are one play away from having Zach Wilson as their starting QB. The biggest factor that will impact the Jets season is their schedule which is one of, if not the toughest in the NFL. New York must face the rest of the AFC East twice along with the AFC West and NFC East. They also get the Browns, Falcons and Texans who will be better this season than they were a year ago. The value in the number has us on the UNDER here.

OTHER JETS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         Jets to NOT make the Playoffs +110

·         RB Breece Hall OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS – *Only if Dalvin Cook is NOT added to the Jets roster* – Hall had 4 rushing TD’s a season ago in only 7 games. NY will employ a West Coast offense that features a strong rushing philosophy.

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AFC North betting prediction | Cleveland Browns Total Wins

AFC North Cleveland Browns Over 9.5 Wins

AFC NORTH

NFL WIN TOTAL – Cleveland Browns OVER 9.5 +120

We like the value in the Over-Under number as the Cleveland Browns win total projections a year ago was this same number of 9.5. That number was set last season knowing QB Deshaun Watson would not be under center for the first 11 games to start the season. In Watson’s previous three seasons in Houston, he threw for an average of 4,280 yards per season with 85 total touchdowns to 28 total interceptions. The Browns rely heavily on their running game and RB Nick Chubb who was 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards 2022 with 1,525 rushing yards. Chubb has essentially been a 1,000 yards rusher every season in the NFL (rushed for 996 as a rookie). Cleveland finished the year 8th in offensive DVOA, 6th best in rushing. The Browns defense slipped in 2022 to 23rd in defensive DVOA after ranking 11th the previous season. Cleveland addressed their holes on the defensive side of the football by signing a few key free agents and a solid draft class. Cleveland won 7 games a year ago with 6 of their nine losses coming by 1-score. The Browns had an average differential of minus -1.2PPG which was tied for 17th in the league. Cleveland plays the 23rd easiest schedule this season according to our data which has our model projecting them to finish with more than 10-wins.

OTHER BROWNS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         +390 to win the AFC North

·         QB Deshaun Watson OVER 3,500 total passing yards -112 – Watson has threw for over 3,800 yards in three seasons when he played a minimum of 15 games in Houston.  

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