Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFC South Prediction | Panthers Win Total

NFC SOUTH Prediction UNDER 7.5 WINS Carolina Panthers – Sept 5th 2023 – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CAROLINA PANTHERS -115

This is my least-liked NFL win total projection but in my opinion it’s the best of the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers have decided to ‘hitch their wagon’ to rookie QB Bryce Young as they’ve named him QB1 heading into the regular season. The 5-foot-10 200-pounder is undersized by today’s quarterback standards and even though he was a winner in college the transition to the NFL may not happen and will at a minimum take time. We didn’t see a lot of Young in the preseason but what we did see wasn’t overly impressive. He was 14 of 24 for less than 130 total yards and 1 TD. Carolina won 7 games last season in the NFC South but it will be tough to get to that number in 2023. In the South the Saints and Falcons are expected to be improved and Tampa still has a top 10’ish defense. The Panthers allowed 350.2YPG last season (22nd), 22PPG and 5.4-Yards Per Play which ranked them 17th in the NFL. Offensively the Panthers were 29th in the league in total yards per game at 306.2YPG. They averaged just 5.3-Yards Per Play (17th) and were last in the league when it came to converting 3rd downs at 3.8 per game. The Panthers had a net scoring differential of minus -1.6PPG (23rd). It doesn’t help that the Panthers have a below average offensive line by our metrics which will make life difficult for their rookie QB. The schedule isn’t terrible but the improvement by a couple of teams in the division will make it tough for the Panthers to get to 8 wins.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • BYRCE YOUNG UNDER 22.5 TOTAL PASSING TOUCHDOWNS -145 – This number opened 26.5 so we’ve lost some value but will still make an investment in this Under. Carolina was 12th in rushing attempts last season, were 13th in rushing TD’s per game and 10th in rushing TD percentage at 44.44%. Carolina was 28th in passing TD’s per game last season at 0.9 and 29th in passing touchdown percentage at 44.44%. The four QB’s for the Panthers last season threw 16 total touchdown passes. Don’t expect Young to get to 23.

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Seattle Seahawks Prediction | NFC West | Total Wins

Seattle Seahawks Prediction UNDER 9.5 WINS | NFC WEST | August 31st

ASA’s NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 9.5 WINS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -155

Again, you will want to shop for the best Under number on the Seahawks or consider betting an alternate number with varying juice. We found 9.5 wins at Draftkings with a higher money line of minus -155. We are in the minority here with this Under play as I’ve listened to numerous ‘talking heads’ on the NFL TV programs predict Over the number for Seattle, but we are contrarian here. Seattle won 9 games a season ago but had an average +/- of minus -0.7PPG which was 15th in the league. Those nine victories came against teams with a combined 58-94-1 straight up record and only three of those W’s came against a team with a winning record. In fact, they also suffered 5 losses to teams that had losing records including 7-10 Carolina, 6-11 Las Vegas, 8-9 Tampa Bay, 7-10 New Orleans and 7-10 Atlanta. The Seahawks we decent offensively as they amassed 5,976 total yards of offense in 2022 (12th most), but unfortunately the defense gave up the 7th most total yards at 6,149. A plus +2 turnover differential on the season helped mitigate the discrepancy in their offensive/defensive numbers. Geno Smith had a career year as the Seahawks starting QB last season with a QBR of 62.8, 4,282 total passing yards with 30 TD’s to 11 INT’s. Early in his career with the Jets when he played in 14 or more games, he threw 25 total TD’s in two seasons with 34 total interceptions. Prior to last season, Smith had played a total of 15 games in his career from 2015 through 2021 so we’re not ready to buy in on him just yet. Seattle will have to face one of the toughest schedules in the league this season as the Hawks get the NFC and AFC East which are the two best divisions in football. Along with those two East Divisions they face the Lions and Titans on the road which won’t be easy wins. Our Seattle Seahawks prediction is for them to finish at 8-9 this season and miss out on the playoffs.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • GENO SMITH UNDER 3900.5 PASSING YARDS +105 – This is a number you’ll find at Draftkings, while a few other Books are carrying a much lower number of 3800. Clearly this wager ties into our Under bet on Seattle’s win total for the season as we expect a regression from Smith and the passing game. When Seattle has been at their best under Pete Carroll is when they feature a run-first mentality. Going back to 2012 the Seahawks have ranked top 3 in rushing attempts per game six times. In 2013 when they won the Super Bowl, they were 2nd in rushing attempts per game at 31.4. In 2014 they were also 2nd in rushing attempts per game and lost in the Super Bowl. Seattle was 22nd in rushing attempts last season but should have an improved rushing attack with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.

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AFC South Prediction | Titans Win Total Bet | Aug 28th

NFL AFC South prediction on the Tennessee Titans

NFL WIN TOTAL – TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 7.5 WINS +115

This AFC South prediction is arguably our toughest call on an NFL team’s win total for the season. We will touch on the questions surrounding the Titans heading into the 2023-24 season. Can Tennessee move on from their disastrous finish to the season a year ago when they lost 7 straight games? Will the Titans make a bold move towards the future and start an unproven QB in Malik Willis or even rookie QB Will Levis?  Looking at the rest of the AFC South predictions, the Jaguars are the favorite to be the best team in the division again after a 9-8 season a year ago, but is Jacksonville that much better than Tennessee? The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both have a win total projection of 6.5 after winning just 7 games between them a year ago. The big advantage we feel the Titans have: 1) Derrick Henry is still a workhorse that finished the season 2nd in rushing with 1,538 yards. 2) IF they decided to stay with QB Ryan Tannehill, who admittedly had a down season a year ago, they still have an advantage over the Texans who may start rookie QB Stroud and the Colts who are looking hard at rookie Anthony Richardson or journeymen QB Gardner Minshew. 3) Head coach Mike Vrabel is 43-27 in Tennessee with three postseason appearances in four seasons. The Texans and Colts have unproven, first year coaches in Demeco Ryans and Shane Steichen. If the Titans get the game manager that QB Tannehill was from 2019 to 2022 they should be an above .500 team. Tannehill threw 76 TD’s to 27 INT’s in that three year stretch and completed over 65% of his attempts in all three seasons. Tennessee owned the best rush defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game allowed but were last in pass defense. That shouldn’t be a concern facing unproved QB’s in the division this season. Last season the Titans lost 10 games but six of those were one score games. They were minus -3 in net turnovers for the season and a few big ones were the difference in several of those one-score games. The Titans face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season which includes the other AFC South teams plus four games against the NFC South which isn’t one of the better divisions in football.  Our AFC South prediction is Over 7.5 win on the Tennessee Titans.

OTHER TITANS BETTING OPTIONS:

  • RB Derrick Henry OVER 1175.5 (-112) TOTAL RUSHING YARDS – Henry has rushed for over 1538 yards in three of the last four seasons when he’s played 15 or more games. In 2021-22 he played in just 8 games and still rushed for 937 yards. Henry has been top 10 in rushing attempts per season in four straight years and 1st in three of the four (only season he wasn’t the year he played just 8 games).

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AFC West Prediction | Chargers Win Total Bet | Aug 21st

NFL Prediction on the LA Chargers and how many games they’ll win in 2023

AFC WEST

ASA’s NFL WIN TOTAL UNDER 9.5 WINS LA CHARGERS +110

The Chargers face the rest of the AFC West twice which features Kansas City, Denver and Las Vegas. Obviously, the Chiefs are the Super Bowl Champs with their core players returning. The Broncos are a team with a great defense, a hall of fame QB and genius head coach in Sean Payton and could make a huge jump in 2023-24. The Raiders are a bit of an unknown but could be better with their QB change. They also face the AFC East which could be the best division in the league and also get the Cowboys and Ravens. The Chargers had a negative net yardage differential as they gained +5.3 yards per play but allowed -5.9YPPL. We can also expect a regression in turnovers as the Chargers benefitted from the second-best net turnover differential per game in the NFL at +0.6. We also don’t feel they can sustain their 3rd down conversion rate of 6.7 per game from a year ago which was best in the league. The mystique surrounding the Chargers is their offense which is deemed as one of the best in the NFL with high profile QB Justin Herbert. You might be surprised by the fact that the Chargers ranked 19th in offensive DVOA last year, were 12th overall in scoring and 21st in Yards Per Play. Los Angeles allowed the 29th most Yards Per Play a year ago and were 23rd in scoring defense giving up an average of 23.1PPG. The Chargers were also in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA rankings. We don’t see the Chargers getting 10 or more wins this season.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • LA CHARGERS NOT TO MAKE PLAYOFFS  -120 – This ties into our assessment of their win total. If Denver makes a jump the Chargers could finish 3rd in the AFC West. The AFC East and AFC North will have multiple teams from their division advance into the playoffs which could leave Los Angeles on the sidelines come the postseason.

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NASCAR PREDICTION | Go Bowling Watkins Glen | August 20th

Nascar Cup bet for the Go Bowling Watkins Glen 2023

It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200 AND had him packaged for a Top 10 finish. Today we expecting the Chevy’s to dominate in the Go Bowling at Watkins Glen.

RACE WINNER – Chase Elliot +$550 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. We have been patiently waiting for this race for an opportunity to back Chase Elliott and the #9 Chevrolet. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Elliott finish 4th. Elliott and the #9 have yet to win this season but he has been fantastic on the road courses with three top 5 finishes. In the last four races on this particular track, he has finished 4th, 2nd and won twice. The #9 didn’t have a great practice run yet he is still the odds-on favorite to win this race at +550. That should tell us enough.

TOP 3 FINISHER – Kyle Larson +$140 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. This is a great spot to back the Rick Hendrick #5 Chevrolet and Kyle Larson. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Larson who won. Larson has a solid track record on road courses with an average finish of 12.6. In 16 races on road courses, he has 4 wins, 7 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s. He’s won at Watkins Glen two straight years. Can he make it 3 straight? You bet he can!

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