Author: Lee Kostroski

Posted on by

NFL free pick Broncos vs Chiefs – Oct 12th 2023

ASA’s DENVER BRONCOS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) [47]

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS – OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS – Jerick McKinnon – KC Chiefs

Denver’s defense is historically bad. Worse than the 2017 Browns team that went 0-16 and the 2008 Lions team that also went 0-16 through the first 5 games of the season.

The Broncos defense is allowing 187 rushing yards per game to opponents (32nd)

They give up 5.9 yards per rush attempt (32nd) and own the worst D in the league when it comes to defending running backs.

Kansas City is 13th in rushing attempts per game at 27.6, and 9th in average yards per rush attempt at 4.5.

We won’t get involved in the Chiefs featured running back Isiah Pacheco’s rushing props as his number tonight is 74.5 rushing yards which is significantly higher than what his rushing O/U has been all season in the low to mid-50’s.

What we will be on though is OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS for Jerick McKinnon. He has totaled 22+ rushing/receiving yards in 3 of the Chiefs last four games. In fact, he’s had 18 or more receiving yards alone in 3 of his last four games. He’s been targeted by Mahomes 8 total times in the past four weeks and should get his fair share of looks in this game. We also like McKinnon anytime TD prop at +320.

ON SALE PACKAGES

RECENT BETTING PREDICTIONS

Posted on by

NFL Players Props – Packers vs. Raiders, Oct 9th 2023

Josh Jacobs Over 72.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Green Bay was run all over by David Montgomery their last outing and has historically been awful against the run in recent years. The Packers are giving up 155 ypg (31st) on the ground in 2023 which is an ideal matchup for Jacobs who led the entire NFL in rushing last season. Despite some slow games for Jacobs so far, expect him to see heavy usage, especially with Davante Adams being questionable with a shoulder injury. Jacobs is one of the most explosive and physical runners in football and his talent will eventually lead to production this year. 

Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+105)

With Davante Adams Questionable, Jimmy’s props and the Raiders receiving props are all in question. Adams seems to be trending towards playing and will no doubt be a dominating force in this game if he does. Adams is virtually unstoppable in the redzone where he can win routes in a phone booth. Garoppolo has two passing TDs in two of three games so far this year, and with a full WR corps, he has a great chance to throw two once again. Keep an eye on Adams throughout Monday for clarity on his status. 

Jordan Love Over .5 INTs (-125)

Love has thrown three picks in the last two games and the offense has struggled heavily in those outings. Green Bay ranks 31st in rushing yards per game, meaning Love has to throw more than they would want. Love has the 7th highest percentage of turnover-worthy throws on passes 20 yards or more according to Jacob Morley. Inaccuracy with deep passes is the easiest way to rack up INTs in the NFL. A first year starting QB will always make mistakes and on primetime TV last Thursday, Love made a few. We expect that trend to continue this week. 

Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 Recs (-155)

Coming off a nine catch game against Detroit, Doubs is the most reliable receiver in Green Bay. Sure handed and a precise route runner, Doubs is averaging five catches a game in 2023. 25 targets in the past two games, shows the trust Love has in Doubs and 4+ receptions for him on MNF should be a walk in the park. Christian Watson is questionable and if he is limited at all, it leaves even more opportunity for Doubs. 

On Sale Packages

Posted on by

TNF Free Bet – Bears vs. Commanders – October 5th 2023

ASA FREE PLAY 1ST HALF TOTAL BET – OVER 21.5 CHICAGO BEARS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

These teams should put up plenty of points here in the first half to cash this over. Games involving the Bears this season have averaged 25.3 total points per game by halftime.

Ironically, games involving the Commanders have averaged that exact same total of 25.3PPG.

Defensively Washington is solid against the Pass but susceptible against the run. The Commanders allow 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). The Bears can exploit that weakness with their rushing offense that is 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG.

Washington allows 30PPG (29th) which is a full TD more than league average.

While we are on the subject of defense….

The Bears defense allows 6.2YPPL which ranks 29th in the league. They give up 34.2PPG which is 2nd to last in the league.

Washington hasn’t been great offensively but QB Howell should have success here against a Bears Pass D is 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR.

It all adds up to plenty of points in the 1st half of this game and we will back the OVER 21.5 1st HALF.

ON SALE PACKAGES

RECENT BETTING ARTICLES

Posted on by

MNF free prediction – Seattle Seahawks at NY Giants, Oct 2 2023

ASA free bet: Seattle Seahawks 1st Half -.5 Pts

This is going to be hard to believe but the Giants have been outscored in the 1st halves of games this year by a combined 63 to 6 total points. They are averaging just 2PPG in the 1st half and allowing 21PPG. Seattle comes into tonight averaging 10.7PPG at the break while allowing 11.3PPG in the first half. The G-Men were slow starters a year ago also averaging just 8.8PPG in the 1st halves of games which was 6th worst in the NFL. We like Seattle to have a slight edge at the break on MNF.

ON SALE PACKAGES

RECENT ARTICLES

Posted on by

Lions vs. Packers Predictions – Player Props – Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Thursday, Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions -1.5 | Over-Under 45.5

Green Bay Packers

1st HALF LINE – Lions -.5 | O/U 22

Team Totals – Lions O/U 23.5 – Packers O/U 21.5

Detroit Lions 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS

Green Bay Packers 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS

Thursday Night Player Props

Jordan Love Under 34 yards Longest Passing Play

Love has been solid in his first three starts for the Packers but has not hit on many big plays. Detroit ranks 10th (62.7%) in opponent completion percentage and Love is only completing 53% of his passes anyway. At 6.8 yards per attempt it shows his willingness to throw underneath and settle for short gains. In a short week, with multiple offensive playmakers questionable, we expect Love to continue to focus on short passes that keep Green Bay ahead of the chains. 

Romeo Doubs Over Anytime TD

Doubs has 3 touchdowns in 3 games in 2023. He has been the main redzone target for Jordan Love and feels like the Davante Adams replacement for Matt LaFleuer in that area. Aaron Jones is the only other reliable redzone threat for the Packers and his status is up in air. AJ Dillion has been flat out terrible in Jones’ absence so look for Doubs to again capitalize when Green Bay gets into scoring territory. 

Jared Goff Over .5 INTs

Having thrown an interception in both of his previous two games, we feel the trend continues on a short week. Overall, Goff has been a good if not great QB since becoming the starter in Detroit. The passing volume that has increased due to his play brings in more opportunity for mistakes however. Green Bay has a +2 turnover differential so far while Detroit has a -3 differential. Goff has thrown 30+ passes in all three games this year, so a high volume night is likely in store again, leaving plenty of room for a mistake in front of a rocking Lambeau Field crowd.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Rec Yards 

Averaging over 91 yards per game this season, Amon-Ra will benefit greatly if Jaire Alexander misses his second straight game. Regardless, the Lions will target St. Brown early and often and love hitting him on deep crossing routes off of play action. He is becoming one of the elite WRs in the league and a true number one for the Lions. Green Bay ranks 10th in passing yards allowed per game, but that number is skewed from playing some of the worst QBs in the league the first three weeks. Another 100 yards day could be in store for St. Brown, but 73 yards is very attainable even against a Packers defense that has played well to start the year. 

On Sale Picks

Recent Betting Articles