Author: Lee Kostroski

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Free bet | Washington State +16 vs Washington | Nov 25

#203 ASA PLAY ON Washington State +16 over Washington, Saturday at 4 PM ET

As we’ve stated the last few weeks, this Washington team is primed to get upset.  We are on Oregon State last week and while the Huskies won by 2 points, OSU won the stat sheet with more first downs, more yardage, but had 3 key turnovers, 2 of which led directly to 9 of Washington’s 22 points.  Despite their undefeated record, the Huskies have been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and 7 of their 8 Pac 12 wins have come by 10 points or less.  The defense has also fallen off drastically allowing 36.5 PPG in Pac 12 play and the only team that is worse is USC.  Wazzu is off a confidence building 56-14 win over Colorado.  The Cougars needed that win to keep their bowl hopes alive and now they need a win here so plenty of motivation beyond the rivalry aspect.  WSU has lost 6 straight prior to beating Colorado but they were competitive all but one of those games including hanging with Oregon on the road before losing by 14.  This line sits at -16 in favor of Washington and of the Cougars 6 losses only one has come by that more than that margin.  The State offense matches up very well vs this porous Husky defense.  The Cougars are one of the top passing offenses in the nation (4th in the country) with a dynamic dual threat QB Ward.  They are facing a Washington defense that allows 260 YPG passing (119th) and 24 completions per game (129th).  The Huskies just need to get out of this one with a win as they are already set to face Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship next week.  They don’t need any injuries and have no incentive to run this one up late in the 2nd half even if they get a chance which we don’t think will happen.  With Washington’s defense struggling and State able to score points (32 PPG) the Huskies would have to have a massive offensive day to have a chance to cover this big number.  We like Wazzu to keep up here and make this one interesting.  Take the points.

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FREE PAC12 BET | Utah vs Arizona prediction | Point Train

Point Train free bet on November 18th – Pac 12 UNDER 46.5 Utah vs. Arizona – 2:30PM ET

PAC 12 – UNDER 46.5 UTAH/ARIZONA – The Pac 12 feature some of the highest scoring offenses in the country with USC, Oregon, Washington and Oregon State all top 15 when it comes to PPG. These two teams have had some higher scoring games this season, but they’ve typically come against the other Pac12 teams that play fast and have high-octane offenses. That won’t be the case today as Utah averages just 5.2 yards/play which ranks 92nd in all of college football and the Cats defense has been better than expected allowing 334YPG. Arizona averages 6.5 yards/play but those numbers are skewed from a schedule that features a host of defenses that rank 90th or worse in total D. Now they face one of the best defenses in the conference that allows 5.0 yards/play which ranks 28th nationally. Both teams are around average in terms of Yards/Point scored and both prefer a slower tempo with Arizona ranking 88th in pace while Utah is 115th. We will support a small bet on the Under today.

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NFL Free Bet | 6-Point Teaser | Ravens + Titans

NFL 6-POINT TEASER BET – Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Tennessee Titans +8.5

Baltimore is the #1 ranked DVOA team in the NFL with the 4th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense and have the best overall scoring differential in the NFL at +12.8PPG.

The Ravens have been even better at home with an average +/- of +19.8PPG.

In their last two home games the Ravens have beaten two upper echelon teams from the NFC the Seahawks and Lions by a combined 75-9.

Cleveland has a top tier defense ranked #1 in DVOA but the offense has struggled with a ranking of 28th.

The Browns average just 4.6YPP on the season while allowing 4.3 for a net differential of +0.3.

In comparison, The Ravens average 5.7YPP on offense and allow just 4.1YPP for net differential of +1.6YPP.

These two teams met earlier in the season in Cleveland with the Ravens winning 28-3 with a +130 yardage advantage.

We like the Ravens to win.

The second part of this two team 6PT Teaser leg is on Tennessee + over a TD against Tampa Bay.

Tennessee with coach Vrabel have been outstanding as an underdog with a 29-19-1 ATS record or 60.4%.

Conversely, Tampa Bay as a favorite is just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 in that role.

Tampa Bay has an average Margin of Victory of -1.1PPG. Tennessee has a negative differential of -1.5PPG.

The Titans are 3-5 SU on the season but only one of those losses have been by more than 9-points.

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Free bet | Georgia State vs App State prediction | Nov 11

#156 ASA PLAY ON Georgia State -2 over App State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Free bet today or Georgia State vs App State prediction. Value here with GSU coming of 2 losses vs Ga Southern & JMU while App State is off 2 home wins vs low tier conference teams USM and Marshall.  App State is 1-3 SU on the road with only win over UL Monroe by 1 point which was far from an impressive road win.  ULM is just 1-7 on the season vs FBS teams with their only win coming over Army by 4 points.  Geogia State has played the much tougher Sun Belt schedule so far having faced JMU, Troy, Ga Southern, and ULL (all of the top teams in the league).  App State has yet to play either of the 2 best teams in the Sun Belt, JMU and Troy.  Georgia State should control ground game in this one which is key.  They have a very good running team averaging 187 YPG and App State is 123rd defensively vs the run allowing 195 YPG.  The Mountaineers remain overvalued having covered just once in their last 5 games.  We like Georgia State as a small home favorite as todays free bet.

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FREE NFL BET – Nov 5th – Rams vs Packers prediction

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS 1ST HALF – RAMS @ PACKERS 1PM ET

The Packers’ first half struggles are well documented as they are one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL. Going in reverse order the Packers first half points have been: 3, 0, 3, 3 and 0 in their past five games. In their first two teams they scored 10 and 9-points so even those games weren’t high scoring. The Packers average just 4.1PPG in the 1st half which is lowest in the league. The Rams are below average in 1st half scoring at 11PPG and we can expect a regression with Brett Rypien starting for the injured Matt Stafford. We don’t see these two teams getting to 20-points in the first half.

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