Author: Lee Kostroski

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FREE PAC12 BET | Utah vs Arizona prediction | Point Train

Point Train free bet on November 18th – Pac 12 UNDER 46.5 Utah vs. Arizona – 2:30PM ET

PAC 12 – UNDER 46.5 UTAH/ARIZONA – The Pac 12 feature some of the highest scoring offenses in the country with USC, Oregon, Washington and Oregon State all top 15 when it comes to PPG. These two teams have had some higher scoring games this season, but they’ve typically come against the other Pac12 teams that play fast and have high-octane offenses. That won’t be the case today as Utah averages just 5.2 yards/play which ranks 92nd in all of college football and the Cats defense has been better than expected allowing 334YPG. Arizona averages 6.5 yards/play but those numbers are skewed from a schedule that features a host of defenses that rank 90th or worse in total D. Now they face one of the best defenses in the conference that allows 5.0 yards/play which ranks 28th nationally. Both teams are around average in terms of Yards/Point scored and both prefer a slower tempo with Arizona ranking 88th in pace while Utah is 115th. We will support a small bet on the Under today.

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NFL Free Bet | 6-Point Teaser | Ravens + Titans

NFL 6-POINT TEASER BET – Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Tennessee Titans +8.5

Baltimore is the #1 ranked DVOA team in the NFL with the 4th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense and have the best overall scoring differential in the NFL at +12.8PPG.

The Ravens have been even better at home with an average +/- of +19.8PPG.

In their last two home games the Ravens have beaten two upper echelon teams from the NFC the Seahawks and Lions by a combined 75-9.

Cleveland has a top tier defense ranked #1 in DVOA but the offense has struggled with a ranking of 28th.

The Browns average just 4.6YPP on the season while allowing 4.3 for a net differential of +0.3.

In comparison, The Ravens average 5.7YPP on offense and allow just 4.1YPP for net differential of +1.6YPP.

These two teams met earlier in the season in Cleveland with the Ravens winning 28-3 with a +130 yardage advantage.

We like the Ravens to win.

The second part of this two team 6PT Teaser leg is on Tennessee + over a TD against Tampa Bay.

Tennessee with coach Vrabel have been outstanding as an underdog with a 29-19-1 ATS record or 60.4%.

Conversely, Tampa Bay as a favorite is just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 in that role.

Tampa Bay has an average Margin of Victory of -1.1PPG. Tennessee has a negative differential of -1.5PPG.

The Titans are 3-5 SU on the season but only one of those losses have been by more than 9-points.

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Free bet | Georgia State vs App State prediction | Nov 11

#156 ASA PLAY ON Georgia State -2 over App State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Free bet today or Georgia State vs App State prediction. Value here with GSU coming of 2 losses vs Ga Southern & JMU while App State is off 2 home wins vs low tier conference teams USM and Marshall.  App State is 1-3 SU on the road with only win over UL Monroe by 1 point which was far from an impressive road win.  ULM is just 1-7 on the season vs FBS teams with their only win coming over Army by 4 points.  Geogia State has played the much tougher Sun Belt schedule so far having faced JMU, Troy, Ga Southern, and ULL (all of the top teams in the league).  App State has yet to play either of the 2 best teams in the Sun Belt, JMU and Troy.  Georgia State should control ground game in this one which is key.  They have a very good running team averaging 187 YPG and App State is 123rd defensively vs the run allowing 195 YPG.  The Mountaineers remain overvalued having covered just once in their last 5 games.  We like Georgia State as a small home favorite as todays free bet.

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FREE NFL BET – Nov 5th – Rams vs Packers prediction

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS 1ST HALF – RAMS @ PACKERS 1PM ET

The Packers’ first half struggles are well documented as they are one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL. Going in reverse order the Packers first half points have been: 3, 0, 3, 3 and 0 in their past five games. In their first two teams they scored 10 and 9-points so even those games weren’t high scoring. The Packers average just 4.1PPG in the 1st half which is lowest in the league. The Rams are below average in 1st half scoring at 11PPG and we can expect a regression with Brett Rypien starting for the injured Matt Stafford. We don’t see these two teams getting to 20-points in the first half.

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NFL Bears vs Chargers prediction – Oct 29th

ASA play on UNDER 46.5 POINTS Chicago Bears @ LA Chargers – 8:20PM ET

Despite money and tickets flowing in on the Over in this game the line has trended down from 48 and currently sits at 46.5. Scoring continues to be down in the NFL this season with games averaging 43.4PPG. Unders are hitting at a near 60% this season and the TV night games have been especially profitable with the Under. The Bears are coming off a misleading final last week when they scored 30 points on just 320 total yards of offense. That 10.7 yards per point is significantly better than the 15.2YPPT they averaged going into last week’s game. Chicago kept their game plan very simple for QB Bagent with most throws being check downs. The Bears will try and rely on their running game here that is 5th in the league in rushing yards per game, 7th in attempts and 5th in yards per rush. Chicago’s defense has shown improvement as they allowed an average of 34.5PPG in their first four games of the season and just 17PPG in their last three. The Chargers offense has managed just 24, 17 and 17 points in their last three games and speculation is that Herbert’s finger on his throwing hand is a problem for the young QB. Los Angeles is averaging just 15.2 yards per point which is below league average and have had problems sustain drives as evidenced by their 3rd down conversion rate of 39.02% which is 19th in the league. Bet Under here.

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