Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL Wild Card Free Bet – Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans – Saturday, Jan 13

#141/142 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

These 2 met in Houston a few weeks ago and the total was set at 40.5 as Texans QB Stroud was injured and not able to play in that one.  Despite that, Houston still put up 22 points and lost the game 36-22 which went way over the total.  Houston struggled for much of the game which was to be expected with Stroud out.  Cleveland, on the other hand, tallied over 400 yards and had opportunities to put up more than the 36 points they posted.  They were shut out on downs twice in Houston territory and only had to punt 3 times in the game.  Browns QB Flacco threw for 368 yards and 3 TD’s as they struggled to run the ball vs a very good Houston rush defense.  Look for Cleveland to have success and air it out again on offense.  Their defense has been night and day in their home vs away splits.  The Browns allow +115 more total YPG on the road and while they only give up 14 PPG at home, on the road that jumps to 30 PPG!  Their road games average 54 total points this season.  Houston’s offense has been much better at home averaging 370 YPG and 25 PPG compared to putting up only 19 PPG on the road.  Stroud is back and healthy which will make a huge difference in their offense this time around vs Cleveland.  Both like to play fast ranking in the top 8 in tempo (seconds per play) and Cleveland has run the most offensive plays in the NFL this season.  In their meeting a few weeks ago the Browns ran 74 offensive snaps and Houston ran 66 for 140 total plays.  The NFL average per game is around 126.  No quit in either offense here no matter what the situation as this is obviously win or go home.  Over is the play. 

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NBA Free Bet | Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction | Dec 23rd

ASA’s NBA FREE BET play on Memphis Grizzlies +1 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:40PM ET

The Grizzlies are significantly better with Ja Morant on the floor as evidenced by their two wins with him back in the lineup. Today they face a Hawks team off a game last night in Miami. Atlanta is 5-13 SU their last 18 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -2.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Grizzlies have an average point differential of +5.1PPG when holding a rest advantage over their opponents and a 16-12 record. Atlanta took a hit when they lost up-and-coming Jalen Johnson and have just 3 wins in their last ten games. This is the Hawks 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days so fatigue will be a factor. Memphis has two quality wins over the Pelicans and Pacers in their last two games and the numbers have not caught up with them yet.

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NFL free bet | Vikings vs Bengals prediction | December 16

ASA’s FREE NFL play on UNDER 40.5 Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 1PM ET

NFL free bet from ASA on Saturday, December 16th. The Bengals w/Jake Browning under center scoring-fest is about to come crashing back down to earth this week when he faces this Vikings defense. Minnesota just pitched a shutout in Las Vegas and has allowed 12 total points in the past two games. The Vikings defense has allowed 19 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Minnesota ranks 10th in total yards per game allowed, 8th in yards per play allowed, 5th against the run and allows the 14th least passing yards per game. In their last three games the Vikes defense is giving up just 4.7 yards per play. Browning and the Bengals put up 34-points against the Colts and Jaguars in the past two weeks but neither of those two defenses are as good as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Bengals defense has been atrocious this season but the Vikings with QB Mullins won’t be able to exploit that weakness. It won’t help that the Vikings will be without RB Mattison who is out here. In their last three games the Vikings are averaging just 4.5YPP and averaging 1-point scored for every 26 yards gained. The Bengals are allowing 6.5YPP on the season but have showed improvement in their last 3 games allowing just 5.5YPP. We would love to see this line go to 41 for a better number but will make a small wager or free NFL bet on Under 40.5.

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Free bet | George Mason vs Tennessee prediction | Dec 5th

ASA free play on: UNDER 137 George Mason at Tennessee, 6:30PM ET

The Volunteers are one of the very best defensive teams in college basketball under HC Barnes year in and year out and this season is no different. UT ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency ratings allowing .903 points per possession despite playing the 6th toughest schedule in college basketball. The Vols are coming off a game in which they allowed 100-points to North Carolina so we’re betting they will be in ‘lock down’ mode here against a very deliberate George Mason offense. The Patriots rank 331st in adjusted tempo and 301st in average possession length. GM is 313th in total field goal attempts per game at 55.8. They are above average in field goal percentage shooting, but they haven’t faced a defense of this quality and the Vols allow opponents to hit just 39.3% from the field. Tennessee isn’t a great shooting team themselves at 43.2% which ranks 256th and they are only slightly faster than average in pace. George Mason allowing 1.018 points per possession which ranks them top third in college hoops and they own the 37th best Effective FG% against.

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NBA Prop Bets – Monday, Nov 27th

ASA’s 2 NBA Players Prop bets in the NBA for Monday, November 27th

WASHINGTON WIZARDS TYUS JONES – OVER 11.5 POINTS

Jones is coming off a 4-point outing against the Hawks but should get right in this match up versus the Pistons. Jones is averaging 10.8PPG over his last ten games but in three of those games he managed just 6-total points. In the other seven games over that ten game stretch he has averaged 14.5PPG. Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that allows the most points to Point Guards this season at 28.5PPG. Detroit is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Tyus Jones is coming off a poor shooting night against the Hawks, but he had shot 64.3%, 46.2%, 69.2%, 57.1% and 85.7% in his previous five games. Lastly, the Total on this game is 236 total points which means a high scoring game for both teams with more than average scoring opportunities for both teams.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS MALCOLM BROGDON – OVER 19.5 POINTS

What we know about Malcolm Brogdon going back to his Virginia days is that he likes to get his. Brogdon is working hard this season to put up numbers to showcase his skills before the trade deadline. He is second on the teams in field goal attempts at 15.8 and averages 17.7PPG on the season. In the last three games he has scored 18, 20 and 19 points. He has scored 18+ in 7 of his last ten games and will have a great opportunity to put up a big scoring night against the Pacers. Indiana averages the most possessions per game at 104.1 and attempt 95.1 field goals per game which is also first. That means this is going to be a faster paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities for the Blazers and more specifically Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon is shooting 36.5% from beyond the Arc this season and the Pacers defense allows opponents to shoot 39.1% from the 3-point line which is 3rd worst in the league. Brogdon should put up a big scoring night against a Pacer defense that is 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and allow the 4th most points to Point Guards in the league.

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