Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL predictions | 1/28/24 | Player Props and Free bet

ASA player props and free bet January 28th

BALTIMORE RAVENS – LAMAR JACKSON OVER 10.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Jackson’s rushing total would be an easy write up but last week his rushing total was 55.5. This is easily the highest rushing total he’s had in the last ten games…so no value whatsoever.  We like Over his attempts of 10.5 instead. Jackson has averaged 9.35 rushing attempts per game and ran it 11 times last week against a good Texans rush defense. Jackson has rushed it 11 or more times in 4 of the last six games he’s played in. Last week Buffalo Bills QB Allen ran it 12 times against this Chiefs defense. With Kansas City in man coverage defensively that gives Jackson more opportunities to run with the DB’s backs to the line of scrimmage.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – BROCK PURDY OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS

Purdy has been under 60% completion rate 3 times this season. Once last week in rainy conditions vs. Green Bay and once each vs. Cleveland and Baltimore who both rank top 5 in opposing QB’s complete percentage. Purdy now faces a Lions defense that is 30th in passing yards per attempt and 31st in yards per completion.

The Lions Pass defense in the last 5 games has been atrocious. Here is what the last 5 oppossing QB’s have done to them. .

N Mullens 411 (261)

D Prescott 345 (ssn ave 265)

N Mullens 396 (261)

M Stafford 367 (ssn ave 264)

B Mayfield 349 *and how many big plays did he miss?* (ssn ave 238)

Purdy averaged 266.5PYPG this season and threw for over 272 8 times this season.

DETROIT LIONS JARED GOFF – OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS

He’s thrown for over this number in 6 straight, and 12 times this season overall. He averages 270.5PYPG. San Francisco is ‘average’ or below in pass defense. They allow 213.4PYPG (14th), allow 23.9 completions per game (30th) and are 21st in completion % against. If the Lions fall behind, they will abandon the running game and throw it on every down. Detroit was 10th in passing attempts per game this season, 2nd in passing yards per game, 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion.

FREE BET DETROIT LIONS OVER TEAM TOTAL 20.5

The Lions averaged 27.2PPG on the season which was 5th most in the league. On the road they put up 24.1PPG. Detroit was 9th in Yards Per Point scored as it took them just 14.4 yards gained for every 1-point scored. The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play and have an offense capable of explosive plays. They scored 20 or more points in 16 of nineteen games this season.

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction | 1/25/24

ASA play on OVER 237.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacer, 7PM ET

Tonight the Philadelphia 76ers travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers. This number hasn’t been set high enough and the bet to make is on the Over the Total. Indiana just faced a Nuggets team that plays much slower than the 76ers and that O/U number was essentially the same at 237. Philadelphia is 5th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.207-points per possession and rank 15th in pace of play. The Indiana Pacers are 2nd in pace of play at 102.6 possession per game and rank 1st in OEFF while scoring on average 124.6PPG. Indiana also allows the 2nd most points per game at 122.9PPG and rank 26th in DEFF. Philadelphia is coming off a 133-123 win over the Spurs who play at the same frenetic pace as the Pacers and are equally as bad defensively. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 263 and 258 total points. Even without Haliburton for the Pacers we like a higher scoring game here. Bet Over!

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NBA Player Prop Bets | 1/18/24 | Free Bets

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 13.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS – Harrison Barnes – Sacramento Kings

Barnes is facing an Indiana team that allows the most points to Scoring Forwards in the NBA at 25.8PPG. This will be a faster paced game with plenty of possessions for both teams which means more opportunities for a big stat line here for Barnes. He has totaled 14 or more PRA’s in 4 of his last eight games. In the games he didn’t get to this total he either sat extended minutes in blowouts or faced much better defenses. We expect Harrison Barnes to score more than this number but will add in Rebounds and Assists as a precaution.  

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 19.5 POINTS – Jalen Williams – Oklahoma City Thunder

This game has an Over/Under of 244 which means plenty of scoring opportunities for everyone involved. We like Williams to do some damage tonight on the offensive end of the court against a Jazz team that allows the 3rd most points to Power Forwards on the season at 26.2PPG. Overall the Jazz own the 21st worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.176-points per possession. Williams is averaging 20.1PPG over his last ten games and has scored more than this total in 6 of his last eight games. He is shooting at a very high percentage over his last ten games at 62.9% overall and 56% from beyond the arc. The Thunder are one of the best scoring teams in transition and the Jazz are one of the worst in the league in stopping opponents fast breaks. Williams is a fantastic finisher and runs the floor well.

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NBA free bet | Wednesday 1/17/24 | Bucks vs Cavs

ASA free play on #503 Milwaukee Bucks -4 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40PM ET

The Cavs have won 5 straight games, but they’ve come against 19-23 Bulls, 16-23 Nets, 7-32 Spurs and two wins against the 7-32 Wizards. So, let’s not be fooled by this current Cavaliers stretch of wins. The Bucks on the other hand have won 3 straight against the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Milwaukee is the superior team here offensively ranking 3rd compared to the Cavs ranking 20th. Cleveland does hold the advantage defensively with the 5th best overall rating compared to the Bucks at 15th. Milwaukee has the 3rd best 3-point percentage in the league while the Cavs rank 10th in 3PT% defense. The Cavs are 26th in the NBA in 3PT% shooting and won’t make many against the Bucks defense that is 2nd in the league in defending the 3-point line. In fact, in the most recent meeting between these two teams the Bucks held the Cavs to 6 of 43 on 3-point field goals. The Cavaliers are still without dynamic PG Garland and starting Center Mobley and simply don’t have the depth to hang with Milwaukee at near full strength. Lay the points on the road.

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NFL Wild Card Free Bet – Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans – Saturday, Jan 13

#141/142 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

These 2 met in Houston a few weeks ago and the total was set at 40.5 as Texans QB Stroud was injured and not able to play in that one.  Despite that, Houston still put up 22 points and lost the game 36-22 which went way over the total.  Houston struggled for much of the game which was to be expected with Stroud out.  Cleveland, on the other hand, tallied over 400 yards and had opportunities to put up more than the 36 points they posted.  They were shut out on downs twice in Houston territory and only had to punt 3 times in the game.  Browns QB Flacco threw for 368 yards and 3 TD’s as they struggled to run the ball vs a very good Houston rush defense.  Look for Cleveland to have success and air it out again on offense.  Their defense has been night and day in their home vs away splits.  The Browns allow +115 more total YPG on the road and while they only give up 14 PPG at home, on the road that jumps to 30 PPG!  Their road games average 54 total points this season.  Houston’s offense has been much better at home averaging 370 YPG and 25 PPG compared to putting up only 19 PPG on the road.  Stroud is back and healthy which will make a huge difference in their offense this time around vs Cleveland.  Both like to play fast ranking in the top 8 in tempo (seconds per play) and Cleveland has run the most offensive plays in the NFL this season.  In their meeting a few weeks ago the Browns ran 74 offensive snaps and Houston ran 66 for 140 total plays.  The NFL average per game is around 126.  No quit in either offense here no matter what the situation as this is obviously win or go home.  Over is the play. 

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