Author: Lee Kostroski

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Florida vs Auburn Prediction | 2-10-24 | Free Bet today

#692 ASA Free pick ON Florida +2 over Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

Auburn is in a potential flat spot here after getting their revenge over in state rival Bama earlier this season.  They did just that earlier this year after losing @ Alabama in late January the Tigers turned around and lost again @ Mississippi State a few days later.  While the Tigers were completely focused on knocking off the Tide on Wednesday, the Gators have had a full week off since losing by 1 point @ Texas A&M last Saturday. 

Florida was rolling nicely prior to the 1 point loss having won 5 of their previous 6 games.  They are 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Kentucky, a game the Gators blew a double digit lead.  Florida was favored by 3.5 in that game and they’ve been favored in every home game this season until today.  Auburn is a perfect 12-0 at home, however on the road they are just 3-3 on the season and since the start of last season the Tigers have a SU record of 7-11 in true road games. 

Florida hits 50% of their shots at home and averages 90 PPG and they’ve beaten Auburn 14 straight times in Gainesville.  The last time the Tigers win @ Florida was in February of 1996.  We’ll take the points with the home team.  

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NBA Free picks | Bucks vs Mavs | Warriors vs Hawks | 2-3-24

ASA NBA FREE BETS or NBA PICKS – PLAYER PROP BETS FOR FEBRUARY 3RD, 2024

ASA Player Prop – Khris Middleton Milwaukee Bucks OVER 19.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS

We will start with the Vegas betting lines on this game and the Over/Under which is set at 246. That tells us this is potentially going to be a very high scoring game for both teams with plenty of possessions, shots taken and rebound opportunities.

Middleton is inline for a big game today versus this Mavs defense that is 22nd in defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.182PPP.

K-Midd has seen his minutes go up gradually with each passing game and has basically played 30+ minutes in 5-straight games.

In his last six games he has totaled 22 or more Points+Rebounds and is averaging 21 in his last ten games.

The Mavericks allow the 6th most points to SF at 23.6PPG and the 4th most rebounds at 8.3RPG.

ASA Player Prop – Steph Curry Golden State Warriors OVER 5.5 ASSISTS

Both teams are coming off games last night, but the Warriors had a comfortable win in Memphis while the Hawks were in a dogfight with Phoenix.

Curry played 32+ minutes which is less than his average per game so his usage should be normal tonight in this second night of a back-to-back.

The O/U on this game is 244 which means a ton of possessions for both teams and more opportunities for points and assists.

Curry may have a harder time scoring with the longer defender of DeJounte Murry guarding him but that should open up more opportunities to create scoring chances for teammates.

Curry is averaging 6.3APG over his last ten games and has been over 5.5 in 8 of his last nine games.

The Hawks give up the 5th most APG to PG’s on the season at 9.2APG and when these same two teams squared off a few weeks ago, Curry finished with 8 assists.

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NBA free bet | 76ers vs Jazz prediction | Feb 1st

ASA Free Bet – Utah Jazz UNDER 122.5 Team Total

The Jazz average 117PPG at home on the season and recently put up 120-total points in a game against this Sixers team in Philly. In the earlier meeting between these two teams the Jazz shot 58% overall which is WELL above their season average of 47% which is 19th in the NBA. The 76ers have the 8th lowest defensive efficiency rating which will make it tough for the Jazz to get to this number. Utah is coming off a long 6-game road trip and teams typically don’t perform well in their first games back home in this situation. The Sixers have held the Jazz to 120 or less points in 5-straight meetings.

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NBA Prediction or FREE BET | Suns vs Heat | Jan 29th 2024

ASA FREE NBA BET on Miami Heat -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET

This is the ‘fishy’ line of the day as the Heat are favored despite losing 6-straight games against a Suns team that is 7-2 SU their last nine games.

The scheduling advantage for the Heat is clear as they are rested for this game while the Suns come off a game last night versus the Magic. Not only is this the Suns 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days.

In the loss last night to the Magic the Suns starters logged heavy minutes with Booker, Beal and Durant all playing 35+ minutes. The Heat have lost extended minutes to multiple starters this season but are now finally getting healthy with a full complement of players tonight.

Phoenix as a road underdog this season is 4-4 ATS with an average margin of victory in those games of minus -5.1PPG. Miami is below .500 as a home favorite at 8-9 ATS but they do have a positive differential of +2.6PPG AND have also covered 5 of their last seven at home as a favorite.

HOUSTON ROCKETS – FRED VANVLEET OVER 14.5PTS

VanVleet is averaging over 17PPG on the season and 17.2PPG in his last ten games. He has totaled more than 14.5 points in 6 of his last ten games. Tonight VanVleet should have a big scoring night against a Lakers team that allows the 4th most points to PG’s on the season at 26.6PPG. The Lakers have been especially bad defending Point Guards in the last two weeks allowing 30.5PPG in that stretch.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS – TYUS JONES OVER 20.5 POINTS+ASSISTS

Jones is inline for a solid game tonight against a Spurs defense that has issues containing opposing Point Guards. San Antonio allows the most points to PG’s this season at 27.5PPG and the 6th most Assists per game at 9.1. In Washington’s last ten games they have faced teams that rank top 12 in fewest points allowed to PG’s and his average in that stretch of games is still 20.8. Jones recently faced the Spurs and his brother Tre and he put up 19 Points+Assists. In two recent games against a Pistons team that is similar to the Spurs defensively he finished with 21 and 29 P&A’s.

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NBA free bet | 1-28-24 | Raptors vs Hawks prediction

ASA play on Toronto Raptors +7 at Atlanta Hawks, 6PM

The Atlanta Hawks shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone in the NBA not named the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards or Hornets. This team is lacking effort on the defensive end of the court that is obvious to a casual observer, let alone statisticians. For the season the Hawks rank 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.204-points per possession. They just gave up 73-points to Luka Doncic and 148 to the Mavericks as a team. They have allowed 122, 134 and 148 in their last three games. Part of the problem seems to be several trade rumors involving this team which are impacting their on the court chemistry. Atlanta is 8-13 SU at home with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG.  Toronto made their trade when they shipped Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown who should start for the injured Quickly in this one. The Raptors have lost 4 straight games they came against a hot Bulls team, the Knicks and Clippers. The one bad loss in that stretch was at home to the Grizzlies by 8-points. The Raptors were recently +7.5-points at New York and the Knicks are far superior to this Hawks team. Atlanta was an -8.5-point favorite at home against the 10-36 Spurs and the Raptors rate more than 2.5-points better than San Antonio. These two teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings but the Raptors are much better defensively. Grab the points.

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