Author: Lee Kostroski

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WNBA prediction | Chicago Sky | Future Bet | May 13th

ASA WNBA FUTURE WAGER – OVER 11.5 WINS CHICAGO SKY

ASA WNBA FUTURE WAGER – OVER 13.5 WINS CHICAGO SKY

This gritty Sky team won 18 games a year ago with 11 of those coming on the road. Chicago had the 6th best offensive Net Rating in the league at 101.3 and were 7th in defensive Net Rating at 103.4. They were the 3rd best EFG% team in the league at 50.1%. They were the 8th slowest paced team in the league which kept them competitive in most games with a lower possession rate. Despite their overall losing record they had an acceptable average loss margin of minus -1.6PPG.

The Sky made some key additions through the draft with 6’7 Kamilla Cardoso from the National Champions South Carolina. Cardoso will have a huge impact in the WNBA this season, rebounding and as a rim protector. Unfortunately for the Sky she will miss the first few weeks of the season with a shoulder injury. Another top draft pick was Angel Reese, the Bayou Barbie from LSU, who lost in the Final Four this past season, but won a National Championship the year before. Those two players were Superstars in college hoops and will immediately provide the Sky with franchise type players to build a future around.  

The Sky brought in an experienced coach in Teresa Weatherspoon who was one of the original WNBA players in 1997 and is currently in the Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame. Weatherspoon prides herself on cultivating relationships with her players and bringing energy to the team. She has 17 years of coaching experience, including 3 years on the New Orleans Pelicans staff.

There has been some turnover on the roster with key departures of Kahleah Copper and Courtney Williams, but they do get Diamond DeShields back from injury after missing the 2023 season. Dana Evans has been with the Sky since their 2021 Championship season and will provide that veteran leadership the younger players will need at this stage of their careers.

With some added depth in Elizabeth Williams and Isabelle Harrison we expect this Chicago Sky team to get to .500 or 20 wins this season. 

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NBA Playoff Free Bet | May 10th 2024 | Nuggets vs Wolves

ASA NBA free play Minnesota Timberwolves ML -185 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET

I’m going to trust my eyes in this one and think the T’Wolves are the better team right now and the Nuggets don’t have the depth to compete here.

LACK OF DEPTH

The Nuggets won last year’s Championship but had depth with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green providing big minutes off the bench. They don’t have that option this year and Jamal Murray clearly isn’t 100% healthy.

JOKER

Everything starts with Jokic on the offensive end of the court for Denver and….

Minnesota has three Bigs (Towns, Gobert and Reid) to throw at Jokic and wear him down.

BREAKING DOWN GAMES 1 & 2

In Game 1 the Nuggets shot 47% overall and 42% and still only managed 99-points. In Game 2 the Wolves defense was smothering (without Gobert) and they held the Nuggets to 35% overall and 30% from Deep and allowed just 80-points.

POSTSEASON

Minnesota currently has the 4th best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason and the 2nd best Offensive Net Rating. In comparison, the Nuggets rank 8th in DNR, 12th in Offensive Net Rating.

SEASONAL

Surprisingly, Denver has not been great off a loss this season with a 13-14 ATS record.

Minnesota is 32-11 SU on their home court this season and have the 4th best average Margin of Victory at +8.7PPG.

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NBA Playoffs Free Bet | May 7th 2024

ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET

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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.

We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.

Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.

Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.  

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NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024

ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET

The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it weren’t for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldn’t be here right now.

Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters.  

The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we don’t feel it’s a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid.

Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th. New York won 3 of four against the Sixers this season and we expect them to win Game 1 on Saturday.

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NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th

ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans

CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt. CJ will have to step up here against a Kings defense that ranks 21st in opponents FG% and 28th in opponents 3PT%. McCollum has scored more than his prop total in 7 of his last eight games and is inline for a big bounce back game here with Williamson on the shelf. 

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