ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET
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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.
We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.
Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.
Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.
Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for… Read more: Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets
ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored. Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive… Read more: NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24
ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in… Read more: NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024
ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET Indy’s defense is a wreck right now. They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG. They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24… Read more: Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024
ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF. Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG… Read more: Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12
ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET
The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it weren’t for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldn’t be here right now.
Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters.
The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we don’t feel it’s a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid.
Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th. New York won 3 of four against the Sixers this season and we expect them to win Game 1 on Saturday.
Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for… Read more: Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets
ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored. Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive… Read more: NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24
ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in… Read more: NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024
ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET Indy’s defense is a wreck right now. They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG. They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24… Read more: Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024
ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF. Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG… Read more: Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans
CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt. CJ will have to step up here against a Kings defense that ranks 21st in opponents FG% and 28th in opponents 3PT%. McCollum has scored more than his prop total in 7 of his last eight games and is inline for a big bounce back game here with Williamson on the shelf.
Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for… Read more: Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets
ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored. Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive… Read more: NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24
ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in… Read more: NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024
ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET Indy’s defense is a wreck right now. They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG. They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24… Read more: Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024
ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF. Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG… Read more: Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12
So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.
The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.
The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.153 points scored/allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.232 points per possessions while the Minnesota Timberwolves held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.090 points allowed per/possession. If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.
This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1. The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.
Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.
NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:
2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)
2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)
2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)
2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)
2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)
2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)
2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)
2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF 5th, DEFF = 13th)
EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER
You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last fifteen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It has been the last two Champs in the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets last season. Every team that has won a Championship in the past 15 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season.
Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. On the outside looking in is Philadelphia who we know played a portion of the season without an MVP type player in Joel Embiid. The Sixers were 13th in OEFF and 11th in DEFF this season. Another team who we pegged prior to the start of the season at +2500 to win it all, who falls outside of this parameter, is the Mavericks. The Mavs rank 10th in OEFF on the season but don’t qualify defensively, ranking 18th in DEFF for the year. But, since the All-Star break the Mavs defense has been infinitely better, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP.
2023-24 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”
Boston Celtics: OEFF 1st, DEFF 3rd
Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 4th
Denver Nuggets: OEFF 5th, DEFF 8th
NY Knicks: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th
New Orleans Pelicans: OEFF 11th, DEFF 7th
Phoenix Suns: OEFF 9th, DEFF 13th
Let’s also take into consideration how these teams fared this season against the other top 16 teams in the league.
Celtics 27-14 SU
Thunder 27-18 SU
T’Wolves 26-19 SU
Nuggets 28-18 SU
Knicks 17-23
Suns 23-22
Intriguing options not on the list! – Dallas Mavericks (+1600) or Los Angeles Clippers (+1600)
As we mentioned above the Mavericks would make this list if we tabulated stats from the All-Star break on. Dallas made some moves prior to the trade deadline and brought in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford which improved their defense dramatically. Offensively this team has two of the best players on the planet, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who can each single-handedly take over a game on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers go as far as a healthy Kawhi Leonard can take them. Unfortunately, we don’t know Leonard’s status but “Playoff Kawhi” is as good as any player historically in the NBA in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with All-Star level talent with Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook along with Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise us to see them in the Finals. The Clippers ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency this season but were 16th defensively.
Our Money is on the favorite…BOSTON CELTICS *We had Boston prior to the start of the season at +380*
Everyone talks about a “Big 3” when it comes to NBA Super Teams, but you could argue that the Celtics have a “Big 5” with a starting lineup that includes: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Let’s not forget to mention the Celtics bench with Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard, just to name a few, who helped Boston have the best bench Net Rating in the NBA at +6.2.
As we previously mentioned, the Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. The Celtics had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. Boston won at home by an average of +15.2PPG and had a road average differential of +7.5PPG, all best MOV’s in the league. The Celtics have the advantage of home court throughout the Playoffs where they were near unbeatable. They were 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. Boston may not have to face either Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals, and even though the Knicks qualify for an Efficiency Championship, we don’t think they are deep enough to beat the Celtics in a 7-game series.
Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.
Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for… Read more: Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets
ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored. Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive… Read more: NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24
ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in… Read more: NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024
ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET Indy’s defense is a wreck right now. They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG. They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24… Read more: Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024
ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF. Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG… Read more: Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12
ASA NBA free bet on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10PM ET
Scheduling has a lot to do with this NBA free prediction as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans.
Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important.
The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG.
When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits as this NBA free pick.
Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for 175 yards. Washington’s pass defense is 20th in yards/completion at… Read more: Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets
ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored. Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.086-points per possession. Last season the Rockets… Read more: NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24
ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in defensive efficiency with the Celtics 3rd, allowing 1.078-points per possession,… Read more: NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024
ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET Indy’s defense is a wreck right now. They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG. They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers… Read more: Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024
ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF. Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs… Read more: Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12
College Football Betting Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs. California Golden Bears Prediction Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024Time: 10:30 PM PTLocation: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA Overview by ASA: The Miami Hurricanes, riding a wave of offensive prowess and a 5-0 record, venture to the West Coast to face the California Golden Bears, who stand at 3-1 with a defense that has been the backbone of their… Read more: Miami Fl vs. California Prediction | Free Bet | 10-5-24
NFL FREE BET – Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction, Sunday Sept 22nd 2024 The Ravens were many experts picks and one of the betting favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season. With a loss on Sunday the Ravens would fall to 0-3 SU and be in serious trouble of missing the postseason. Dallas won their opener in Cleveland against… Read more: RAVENS vs COWBOYS PREDICTION | FREE BET | 9-22-24
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ASA WNBA free bet on Connecticut Sun -1 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 7PM ET **GET A SALE PRICED PLAYOFF PACKAGE TODAY!* AS OF THIS POSTING ASA IS KILLING IT IN THE WNBA THIS SEASON WITH A CURRENT 24-10 STREAK AS OF SEPT 17TH. O/U BETS ARE ON AN INSANE 16-4 RUN! This is a big game for both teams as they sit 2nd and 3rd in… Read more: WNBA Free Bet | Lynx vs Sun | Sept 17th 2024
ASA 2 free player prop bets – Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons Atlanta attempted the 3rd most rushing attempts per game in 2023 at 30.7. In the opener against the Steelers the Falcons fed Robinson 18 times for 68 yards. He also had 43 receiving yards on… Read more: NFL Prop Bets | Bijan Robinson | Sept 16th 2024
Sources: Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is in concussion protocol after leaving the Mississippi State game last week with an injury and not returning to the sideline for the second half. He did dress and practice on Tuesday, and his status for the Georgia is undetermined.
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