Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA free bet Heat vs Trailblazers | Jan 11th 2025

ASA’s NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10PM ET

I may regret backing the Blazers here as I typically don’t like betting teams in their first home game off an extended road trip but there are enough other positives to back Portland here.

Let’s face it, not all NBA players are 100% motivated on a nightly basis, which can make games difficult to predict. I’m betting the Blazers will be ready for this Heat team after losing to them by 60-points in late March a year ago. That is not a typo…60-point beat down by the Heat in Miami.

The Heat are without suspended Jimmy Butler and 2-3 SU their last five games. They are coming off a pair of road wins against the Warriors and Jazz, but the Heat have struggled as a road favorite this season going 1-6 ATS.

On that note, the Blazers have made backers money as a home underdog with a 9-5 ATS record.

Miami isn’t a great shooting team so we see them exploiting a bad Blazer FG% defense to win this game by margin.

Lastly, there was an immediate influx of money on the Heat, yet the line didn’t move as it normally would have in the Miami’s favor. We will make a light bet on the Blazers and the points tonight.

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NBA free bet | Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz Prediction | 1-7-2025

ASA NBA free bet on OVER 238.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9PM ET

The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games.

Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those game the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games.

While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th.

We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th.

Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

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NBA Free pick | Bucks at Pacers | December 31st 2024

ASA NBA FREE play or NBA prediction on Indiana Pacers vs.  Milwaukee Bucks, 3:10PM ET

*Note the early start of this game.*  

There is some bad blood between these two teams that genuinely don’t like each other.

Milwaukee won the first meeting of the season at home 129-117, but it took 53% shooting overall and 47% from Deep to notch that win.

Both teams have had some injury concerns early on but the Pacers are in a better current situation as the Bucks had an illness run through the team this past week.

When we look at the last 10 games for these teams, we find the Pacers are 7-3 SU with a +3.5 Net Rating compared to the Bucks at 5-5 SU with a negative NR of -0.9.

Indiana hasn’t been great at home with an 8-5 SU record, but they still have a positive differential of +1.3ppg. The Bucks are 5-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.1ppg. Now that the Pacers are getting healthy, we expect a regression to their home court dominance like last season when they had the 5th best average +/- at home of +7.4ppg.

Speaking of home/road numbers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. We like that trend to continue here. NBA free bet on the Indiana Pacers Money Line +100 vs. Milwaukee Bucks.

ASA NBA player prop bet OVER 13.5 POINTS – Khris Middleton Milwaukee Bucks

This is an unusually low number for Middleton considering his minutes are going up and he has scored more than this in 5 straight games.

Granted, his field goal attempts will take a hit here with Giannis potentially coming back but there is still value in this Over.

K-Midd is averaging 13.37 points per game this season and should have a solid scoring game against a Pacers defense that isn’t very good.

Indiana is 23rd in Defensive Efficiency ratings allowing 1.165 points per possession.

In his last 5 games against the Pacers, Middleton has put up 19, 20, 14, 21 and 19-points.

Indiana gives up 22ppg to Small Forwards this season, 11th most in the NBA.

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NBA free bet | Suns vs Warriors Prediction | December 28th 2024

ASA’s NBA free bet on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET

Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number.

Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg.

Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games.

Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest.

These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

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