Author: Mike Merlet

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Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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Free College Basketball bet | Vermont vs Yale | Dec 2nd

ASA play on: #306568 Vermont -1.5 vs. Yale, 7PM ET

Vermont enjoys a key advantage in this game with the 30th best shooting offense in the country. The Catamounts hit 47% of their FG attempts (30th), 36.4% of their 3-point attempts (40th) and make on average 13 3-pointers per game which is 13th most in the nation. Yale is not known for their defense either as they rank 156h in opponents FG% at 42% and 227th in 3PT% defense allowing 33.5% from beyond the Arc. Home court will certainly be an advantage for Vermont who is 17-1 SU their last 18 at home with an average +/- of +19.4PPG. In comparison, Yale is 9-10 SU their last 19 on the road. Last season these two met in Yale and the Bulldogs won 73-44 as a 1-point favorite. The year before Vermont won at home by 8-points. We are backing the home team with revenge in this one.  

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Free Bet | Oklahoma State vs Texas Prediction | Dec 2

#310 ASA FREE PLAY ON Texas TEAM TOTAL Over 34.5 Points (vs Oklahoma State), Saturday at 12 PM ET

There are some 35’s and 35.5’s posted as well but 34.5 is still available as some sportsbooks.  We like the Longhorns to score at least 35 points in this game so we’re taking Texas OVER their TEAM TOTAL which is currently set at 34.5.  One key to this game is Texas absolutely needs style points so we expect them to keep scoring even if they do get a big lead (favored by 15 points).  They will most likely be one of many 1 loss teams fighting for a spot in the CFP Final 4.  The Horns already showed last week they’re fine with running up the score at this point beating Texas Tech 57-7 while scoring their final TD with just over 30 seconds remaining in the game.  They should be very successful on offense here facing an Okie State defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed.  The OSU defense will have to pick their poison here as Texas is very balanced averaging 189 YPG rushing and 272 YPG passing.  The Longhorn offense has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and in many of those they had big leads and no incentive to keep scoring which they do here.  They’ve also scored at least 35 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings vs Oklahoma State.  Perfect conditions with this game being played inside at the Cowboys home field.  Over 34.5 Points for Texas in this game is our play. 

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Free Bet | Boston College vs Miami Fl prediction | Nov 24th

#116 ASA FREE PLAY ON Boston College +10 over Miami FL, Friday at 12 PM ET

We expect Miami to be flat for this one.  They just put all of their physical and emotional effort into the last 2 weeks vs the top 2 teams in the ACC, FSU & Louisville.  The Canes lost both by a TD.  It’s going to be tough for this team, that has already qualified for a bowl game, to get up and go play in cold weather Boston (windy and wind chill in the 30’s at game time) over the Thanksgiving break.  U of M hasn’t been good on the road with a 1-3 SU record (only win @ Temple) and they’ve been a poor favorite this year going 2-5 ATS in that role.  Going back further they’ve been favored 22 times since the start of the 2021 season and covered only 6 of those games.  QB VanDyke played well in last week’s game but he is not 100% with a knee injury but was forced back into action when Emory Williams, who started vs FSU a week earlier, was injured.  BC had won 5 straight but did not play well the last 2 weeks losing to Va Tech and @ Pitt.  Their game vs Pitt was last Thursday so they’ve had extra time to get ready after a loss while Miami will be traveling on a short week.  Miami 2-5 in league play with wins by 3 & 8 points.  Miami just 10-13 SU record in ACC play since start of 2021 and only 3 wins by more than this spread (9 points).  We anticipate BC brings a great effort in their home finale coming of 2 straight losses.  This should be close so let’s back the Eagles as a free bet on Friday.

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Commanders vs Giants prediction – Oct 22nd

NFL FREE BET #462 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +3 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Giants are coming off a solid outing @ Buffalo giving the Bills all they could handle last week in a 14-9 loss.  NY outgained Buffalo in the game and had the ball 1st and goal at the Bills 1 yard line with a chance to win in the final seconds.  Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a solid outing and it looks like he’ll be under center again today as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury.  Washington won @ Atlanta last week but they were outplayed dramatically in the stats.  In that win the Commanders were -13 first downs, outgained 402 to 197, and 5.1 to 3.9 on a YPP basis.  They won the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was the difference in the game.  The Giants have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and as a dog vs Washington they’ve covered 4 of the last 5.  We like the line value here as in their only 2 home games this year NYG was a 3 point dog vs Dallas and a 2.5 point dog vs Seattle, 2 teams ranked 10th and 11th per DVOA and now they are getting the same number vs a Washington team ranked 24th per DVOA.  We’re catching the Giants at the bottom of the market here but off a solid outing vs a high level team vs an overvalued Washington team.  Take the points.

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