ASA’s Expert Horse race bettor has a preview of the Kentucky Derby – DON’T MISS HIS RACE DAY REPORT!
#1 – HIT SHOW – 30/1 – He’ll be the biggest overlay in the Kentucky Derby off this morning line.
Hit Show has never been 2/1 in any of his 5 career races.
The biggest price in his career was in the Wood Memorial at 1.70/1!
The Wood Memorial was a very oddly run race, and we tapped it as a any kind race, especially with Hit Show breaking 12/12 that afternoon.
That’s why we suggested Lord Miles that afternoon, we never thought the Lord Miles would go off at 59/1!
That afternoon Hit Show was making his first start in almost 2 months!
We also have to realize he shipped from NOLA to New York for the Withers and then back to NOLA and then back to New York for the Wood Memorial.
He really needed that race in the Wood was parked the widest of the field and was further back in the Wood than he was in his prior two races.
Take note of his 3 career wins, he made the lead at the top of the lane and each of those wins, he distanced himself from the rest of the field.
That’s the sign of a serious horse as most dirt races are the opposite as you usually run slower down the lane then the opening part of the race.
Hit Show has worked well at Churchill Downs and in his last work on the 29th he was more manageable than the 21st work, when he was down inside of Verifying, that morning, he was head strong.
Hit Show’s work on the 29th, this time Brad Cox flipped positions and put Hit Show on the outside of Verifying and he was much more relaxed and controllable.
Below are Hit Show’s fractions in the Wood Memorial
Race Fractions
1/4 mile — :25.38 (fifth) 1/2 mile — :49.60 (fifth) 3/4 mile — 1:13.33 (fifth) 1 mile — 1:38.18 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile — 1:51.19 (second)
Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile — :25.38 second 1/4 mile — :24.22 third 1/4 mile — :23.73 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.85
final 1/8 mile — :13.01 – Not strong at all, track? final 3/8 mile — :37.85 – Just OK!
HIT SHOW’S LAST 3 THORO #’S – FIRST # THE MOST RECENT = 4-2-4 HIT SHOW’S WORKOUTS
April 21 – 1:01.00 – 18/33 CD dirt fast April 29 – 59.60 – 4/54 CD dirt fast
POST POSITON RESULTS = NEGATIVE
HIT SHOW – MINIMAL EXOTIC USE
#2 – VERIFYIING – 15/1 – Another Brad Cox runner that didn’t draw well! Verifying will have to push from the jump and use his early speed in which he has plenty to use as he’s very quick footed!
He has a very good gate jockey in Tyler G., he can get one out quick as the majority of the good jocks and knows how to establish great position as he is a very heady rider.
We feel this morning line is high also, the highest his ML has been in all of his 3yo races was last out against Tapit Trice, he was listed at 2.35/1 in the Blue Grass.
Verifying ran a huge race in the blue grass and is showed in all of his speed numbers. He improved a ton on the sheets and his Beyer # improve by 2 points off his initial career Beyer number.
Brad Cox has stated his pushed to hard on Verifying to run him back in the Breeders’ Cup and you can note, that was Verifying worse career race.
One thing you like to see from any young colt, is they improve off their 2yo campaign and Verifying has defiantly improved as a 3yo.
One little nugget that most might not have heard or know about, is that Verifying was picked out by Brad Cox for Coolmore and not a blood stock agent.
ROBYN MURRAY ON VERIFYINIG
Verifying has special spot in Cox’s heart and he knows this colt hasn’t run his career best race as of coming into the Kentucky Derby.
One other thing we also want to point out is the Tyler G has stated to Cox, he liked the Keeneland surface, but he stated Verifying loves the surface at Churchill Downs.
Behind the scenes, Tyler is smiling ear to ear to have this mount!
Below are Verifying fractions in the Blue Grass
Fractions
1/4 mile — :23.82 (second) 1/2 mile — :48.24 (second) 3/4 mile — 1:12.61 (second) 1 mile — 1:37.60 (first)
1 1/8 mile — 1:50.05 (second)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :23.82
second 1/4 mile — :24.42 third 1/4 mile — :24.37 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.99
Verifying last 3 Thoro #’s – First # most current – 1-5-5 Verifying’s Workouts
NOTE: The work on the 31st in 59.2 at Keeneland before was with Hit Show as well, per our Keeneland Contact, he stated they threw it down, the ½ was in 46.4, 59.2, and gallop out in 1.13.3 at 6F
April 21 – 1:01.00 – 18/33 CD dirt fast April 29 – 59.40 – 2/54 CD dirt fast
POST POSITION RESULTS = NEGATIVE
VERIFYING – MINOR WIN CONTENDER – MUST USE EXOTIC RUNNER
#3 – TWO PHIL’S – 12/1 – What can you say negative about Two Phil’s, he’s won 4 of his 8 career races and two of his losses were in the Big Easy!
Did Two Phil’s dislike the surface at the Fair Grounds?
I was told by Bob Baffert one year at the Fair Grounds, when he used to ship horses in to run.
Bob stated too us that some horses don’t get over the Fair Grounds main track as it’s a quirky surface!
He must’ve started to despise it, as he loved the Big Easy and told us that’s where Bodie was conceived!!!
We love the breeding on Two Phil’s as he’s bred to stay the distance on top and bottom.
We’ve always loved Hard Spun, he could run over any type surface and with General Quarters on the dam side that brings even more stamina.
We truly feel that the Jeff Ruby Steaks, wasn’t a fluke, we feel he was training extremely well per Larry coming into that race and that
Loveberry covered him up longer during the race and when it was time to unleash him, he exploded down the lane.
What I want you all to go watch is the gallop out from Two Phil’s in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, Loverberry couldn’t pull him up, the out rider had to gather him up, this gallop out was one of the best GALLOP OUTS we’ve ever seen!!
If you think the Jeff Ruby was his best race, think again, go watch his win in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs.
Two Phil’s gets hammered, gets knocked sideways and could have gone down in the slop that night.
Instead of getting keen, he listened to Loveberry and was taken in hand and just listened to Loveberry until it was time to run.
Once Loveberry gave him a little bit of the rein, he zoomed around that field and took the lead with ease, once he took the lead, he threw his ears up like the race was over and Jareth had to get his mind back on runner, he was running down the lane like a drunken sailor!
What made that race, even more impressive, it was just 22 days after running at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup and he had no shot that afternoon from post 12 of 14!
Two Phil’s has come out of his career race and has worked ever better than going into the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Hawthorne.
He’s been blazing that track up preparing for the Kentucky Derby, Loveberry and Larry are on cloud nine.
Two Phil’s reminds us of Catholic Boy, just an old school race horse, he likes to mix it up and the rougher the better for him!
Below are Two Phil’s fractions in the Jeff Ruby Steaks
Fractions
1/4 mile — :24.04 (seventh) 1/2 mile — :48.29 (sixth) 3/4 mile — 1:12.31 (fourth) 1 mile — 1:36.69 (first)
1 1/8 mile — 1:49.03 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.04
second 1/4 mile — :24.25 third 1/4 mile — :24.02 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.38
final 1/8 mile — :12.34 – Very strong!
final 3/8 mile — :36.72 – Very Powerful, especially watching the gallop out!
Two Phil’s last 3 Thoro #’s – First # most current – 2-4-4 Two Phi’s Workouts
April 9 – 49:60 – 3/10 HAW dirt fast April 16 – 1.00:00 – 1/10 HAW dirt fast April 27 – 59:00 – 1/16 HAW dirt fast
POST POSITIONS RESULTS = NEGATIVE
TWO PHIL’S – MINOR WIN CONTENDER – MUST USE EXOTIC RUNNER
#4 – CONFIDENCE GAME – 20/1 – First off, we want to pay our condolences to Keith “Da Hitman” Desormeaux on the passing of his father last week.
Hitman can hit you when you least expect it, like he did in the Rebel Stakes with a big 4 wide move to the winner’s circle.
One thing, we noted, was Da Hitman stated in his interview after the race that he wasn’t going to commit to the next race during the
interview.
He said, he would let the horse dictate his next race or he might train up to the Kentucky Derby.
Then in another interview at the Fair Grounds, he said Confidence
Game hasn’t comeback out of the Rebel to his liking and he might train him up to the Blue Grass.
He also stated, leaving almost freezing temps in Hot Springs and then shipping back to the Big Easy where it was hot near the 80’s had taken energy from Confidence Game.
This by far in a very unorthodox way of bringing a horse to the Kentucky Derby, this will be Confidence Game’s first race in over 2 months, actually 70 days, since he’s been in the starting gate.
One other thing to point out is Confidence Game has beaten two runners that have come back to win stakes races, those runners are Rocket Can and Red Route One.
The only other runner to beat a runner that has come back and won was Angel of Empire, he beat Red Route One in the Arkansas Derby.
The remaining runners that have won the other Kentucky Derby prep races, none of the runners behind them have come back to win another race, much less a stake race.
Confidence Game has worked gang busters since arriving at Churchill Downs from the Fair Grounds. He possesses very good tactical speed as you can see via his running lines in the past performances.
We feel Confidence Game will be very keen as he’s not raced in 70 days and has been on edge in his morning workouts.
He’s worked very quick of late and we also want to point out that many are stating why did he not work after that 8F work on the 14th of April in 1.38.1!
That was actually a prep race work going 8F in that manner!
He gave him two weeks in between his next work, just like most trainers do after a race!!
Don’t always take in what your read, you have to look at the entire picture!
Confidence Game has 3 career wins, two over this main track here at Churchill Downs and his slop win at Oaklawn Park in the Rebel!
He continues to show his affinity for this main track in his workouts and gallops.
DA’ Hitman has him on his toes and we see James Graham on the engine from the break!
Confidence Game last 3 Thoro #’s – First # most current – 2-7-9 Confidence Game’s Workouts
April 8 – 1.00:40 – 5/28 CD dirt fast April 14 – 1.38:20 – 1/1 CD dirt fast April 29 – 59:00 – 1/54 CD dirt fast
Workout Notes:
April 14th splits, per Churchill Clockers,
24.6,36.00,47.80,1.00.20,1.13.00,1.25.6,1.38.20 and out 1 ¼ in 2.05.80!
– This was a RACE workout –
April 29th splits, per Churchill Clockers, 23.0,34.40,59.00 and out in 6F 1.13.40!
Another private clocker, stated he got him at 6F in 1.11 and change!!
HMMM
DA’ HITMAN ON CONFIDENCE GAME
POST POSITION RESULTS – AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE GAME – MUST USE EXOTIC RUNNER
#5 – TAPIT TRICE- 5/1 – This son to Tapit is pure “RACEHORSE” he’s just one mean SOB down the lane!
He can open up on a field down the lane and he’s not opposed to mixing it up down the lane, shoulder to shoulder!
All the experts don’t like him at all, especially at the 5/1 ML!
Take the time and go back and watch all of his career races, you’ll learn so much more watching races after you’ve wagered on them, you’ll take the bias from your mind out of it and watch it with clear eyes!
This big gray/roan is a beast and is only getting better. He’s not a closer like most think he is, he just has issues getting away from the gate at times.
That really could be an issue as the new Kentucky Derby gate is smaller than the normal gates that are used each day in racing.
Tapit Trice is just a big horse and this could hamper him at the beginning as he’s had issue in the normal gates.
But if Luis can get him to break clean, he’ll get him into good position as the runners inside of him will push once the gates open or they’ll be swallowed up from the runners coming down from the outside.
Tapit Trice is much more push button than he’s given credit for, watch him in the Blue Grass as he broke from the rail, was checked, than
switched off the rail to the middle of the track and then Luis guided him outside of traffic to make his sustained run down the lane and he went toe to toe with Verifying that had the perfect trip the entire race and put him away with ease down the lane.
Watch the head on, as Tyler tried to intimidate Tapit Trice going right- handed with the whip right by his face, he never shied!!
TAPIT TRICE BLUE GRASS WIN
What’s the biggest tell that he’s a “Stone Runner”, his five career wins are all at different tracks and surfaces. That’s huge when you don’t have to carry your race track with you and you don’t care what type of surface you dig your hooves into when you enter the starting gate.
We’ve watched all the horses work and gallop at Churchill Downs the past couple weeks and Tapit Trice has looked the best in his works and especially in his gallops.
He looks to be floating over this main track in Louisville and that shouldn’t surprise you as he showed he doesn’t have to carry his race track with him.
We really like how Luis rides Tapit Trice, he’s probably the strongest rider in the game and sometimes he has to get after Tapit Trice, but he’s so physically fit that he looks at times that he carries his horses across the finish line, this young man is “Hickory Stick Strong”!
Below are Tapit Trice fractions in the Blue Grass
Fractions
1/4 mile — :24.92 (seventh) 1/2 mile — :48.54 (fourth) 3/4 mile — 1:12.77 (third) 1 mile — 1:37.64 (second)
1 1/8 mile — 1:50.00 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.92
second 1/4 mile — :23.62 third 1/4 mile — :24.23 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.87
final 1/8 mile — :12.36 – POWERFUL AFTER LOSING GROUND
final 3/8 mile — :37.23 – “ “
Tapit Trice last 3 Thoro #’s – First # most current – 1-4-4 Tapit Trice’s Workouts
April 21 – 48.60 – 11/68 CD dirt fast April 29 – 48:20 – 20/149 CD dirt fast
TAPIT TRICE POST POSITION RESULTS – BIG NEGATIVE
TAPIT TRICE – PRIME WIN CONTENDER
#6 – KINGSBARNS – 12/1 – He’s a huge undelay from our POV! We feel he’ll drift way up from this ML at post, more likely in the range of 20/1 or higher!
We’re not going to be long winded on him, he’s just not on par with these at this time of his career.
Another big tell, is Flavian Prat jumped ship like it was a sinking one after he rode Angle of Empire in the Arkansas Derby.
That’s a huge tell, when you have your choice of mounts and you don’t blink an eye.
They finally committed to Jose Ortiz on yesterday and they didn’t want him in the irons, you could tell, each time a reporter asked TAP, have you all committed to Jose, he’d answer very gingerly!
We feel the Beyer # is the Louisiana Derby is skewed as they don’t have much data to get a true # at 1 3/16th as so few races run at that
distance.
When you’re running 6F in 1.14 and then a mile in 1.39, that’s POOR!
Below are Kingsbarns Louisiana Derby fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :24.71 (first) 1/2 mile — :49.60 (first) – SLOW
3/4 mile — 1:14.69 (first) – SLOW 1 mile — 1:39.13 (first) – SLOW 1 3/16 mile — 1:57.33 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.71
second 1/4 mile — :24.89 third 1/4 mile — :25.09 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.44 final 3/16 mile — :18.20 final 7/16 mile– :42.64
Kingsbarns last 3 Thoro #’s – First # most current – 3-4-9
Kingsbarns Workouts
April 7 – 49:74 – 5/17 PBD dirt fast April 14 – 49:48 – 10/25 PBD dirt fast April 20 – 1:00.80 – 11/20 CD dirt fast April 29 – 48:40 – 33/149 CD dirt fast
NOTE: Per our POV, he’s looked very odd with his action at Churchill Downs, we’re not a clocker by any means, but his action is not smooth at all!
KINGSBARNS POST POSITION RESULTS – AVERAGE TO GOOD
KINGSBARNS – TOSS
#7 – REINCARNATE – 30/1 – First off, the ML is beyond funny as hell! A Bob Baffert colt listed at this price is mind boggling!
One huge tell about Reincarnate, is that his last work at Santa Anita on 28th of April, going 4F in 46.2 the best of 30 that afternoon only signal one thing for us, he’s going to the lead!
Will Jr, put them to sleep like he did with Authentic and Medina Spirit??
We’ll see this coming Saturday, but this colt hasn’t done any type of real racing since he left California and he looks to be a miler and wasn’t beating up on much in California.
His two lackluster races in Hot Springs are too bad to think, he can turn it around now going 1 ¼ against the toughest completion he has faced to date.
We don’t see anything positive to say about him and he looks extremely over his head this coming Saturday.
Reincarnate’s Arkansas Derby fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :23.57 (second) 1/2 mile — :47.36 (second) 3/4 mile — 1:12.44 (second) 1 mile — 1:38.06 (second)
1 1/8 mile — 1:50.63 (third)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :23.57
second 1/4 mile — :23.79 third 1/4 mile — :25.08 fourth 1/4 mile — :25.62
final 1/8 mile — :12.57 – DECENT
final 3/8 mile — :38.19 – VERY POOR – TURTLE PACE
Reincarnate’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 4-4-2 Reincarnate Workouts
April 16 – 1:00.00 – 12/99 SA dirt fast April 22 – 1.01:00 – 7/16 SA dirt fast April 28 – 46:40 – 1/26 SA dirt fast
REINCARNATE POST POSITION RESULTS – POSITIVE
REINCARNATE – TOSS
#8 – MAGE – 15/1 – Here’s another young colt being asked a lot of early on in his career. He’s run 3 big races and made a tremendous move in the Florida Derby to look as he was going to win the race and then Forte ran by him like he was tied to the rail!
It’s almost impossible to win the Kentucky Derby off 3 lifetime starts as he’s just like Kingsbarns, but looks to be the better of the two at this time.
Only one horse has won the Kentucky Derby without making a start at two years old and that was Justify and we all know he was JUICED out of his mind!!
He failed a test for steroids after the Santa Anita Derby and it wasn’t reported till the Triple Crown was complete!
Mage also had Luis jump ship and they just named their jock two weeks ago, as JJ jumped from committing to Raise Cain early on, to jump ship here back to Mage, whom he rode in the Fountain of Youth!
Mage’s Florida Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :24.92 (twelfth) 1/2 mile — :48.01 (eleventh) 3/4 mile — 1:11.73 (seventh) 1 mile — 1:36.35 (first)
1 1/8 mile — 1:49.57 (second)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.92
second 1/4 mile — :23.09 third 1/4 mile — :23.72 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.62
Mage Workouts
April 16 – 1.01:09 – 5/20 GP dirt fast April 22 – 1.14.78 – 1/1 GP dirt fast April 29 – 1.16:80 – 1/1 CD dirt fast
NOTE: These types of works are strictly for fitness, not for speed as he’s been through some tough races and he’s too lightly raced!
MAGE POST POSITION RESULTS – POSITIVE
MAGE – TOSS
#9 – SKINNER – 20/1 – The now horse, we even heard Todd Pletcher state, he was hoping that Skinner didn’t draw into the body of the race.
I’ve never heard so many excuses from the national pundits about a horse being wide and losing ground to Practical Move and PT having the garden trips.
If your good, you can overcome those wide trips, it’s not like those trips were in big fields, those fields were 8 and 9 runners.
Go watch Tapit Trice, look how wide he’s been in races he’s won! It’s because he’s a beast and loves to tangle it up down the lane.
We’ll agree that Skinner is on the improve and hasn’t run his best race to date and he’ll offer big value and he drew a perfect post position also.
Another change for him this race is a jock switch to the leading rider in California, Juan Hernandez! He’ll be replacing Victor Espinonza as the ownership group, feels Victor wide trips has cost him the past two races.
John Shirrefs has been very bullish on this colt, if your read our
Kentucky Derby Doings, we pointed to follow him and to keep and open eye to him getting into the Kentucky Derby field.
Skinner’s Santa Anita Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :23.60 (seventh) 1/2 mile — :47.10 (sixth) 3/4 mile — 1:11.85 (sixth) 1 mile — 1:36.03 (third)
1 1/8 mile — 1:48.79 (third)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :23.60
second 1/4 mile — :23.50 third 1/4 mile — :24.75 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.18
final 1/8 mile — :12.76 – VERY GOOD
final 3/8 mile — :36.94 – POWERFUL SERIOUS LAST 3F
Skinner’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 2-4-4
Skinner’s Workouts
April 17 – 48:00 – 19/70 SA dirt fast April 23 – 1:13.4 – 1/3 SA dirt fast April 29 – 1.14:00 – 3/3 SA dirt fast
NOTE: The last work on the 29th was SERIOUS, he was straight as a sting down the lane and finished his last 1/8th in 11 in change!!
SKINNER POST POSITION RESULTS – POSTIVIE
SKINNER – MUST USE EXOTIC RUNNER
#10 – PRACTICAL MOVE – 10/1 – The bandwagon has abandoned after his all-out gutsy win in the Santa Anita Derby!
But remember, he’s run the fastest 1 1/6 race of all Kentucky Derby preps at 1.41.3 at Los Al, also came home in 31.2.
He also has run the 2nd fastest 1 1/16 race and he did that off the bench as a 3yo as he ran 1.42 in the San Felipe and came home in 31 flat!
Once again, he comes back off that huge effort and runs another bang- up race and to his credit, as he holds the fastest 1 1/8th race of any of the runners in the Kentucky Derby at 1.48.3!
Think about this for a minute, he’s being chastised for being all out at
1.48.3 to win the Santa Anita Derby, wasn’t Forte all out down the lane to get by Mage, to win the Florida Derby, that final time was 1.49.1,
what about Tapit Trice, wasn’t he all out to get by Verifying down the lane in the Blue Grass, that final time was 1.50!
So, we’re not going to hold his last race against him, we feel he was a little rank and moved a little early in the race, but still galloped out with them after the wire and is just a winner.
When he came upon our attention, we went back and watched his races, Drayden rode him so poorly or he’d have another two wins on his resume!
Ramon fits him like a glove and he knows this son of Practical Joke like the back of his hand and this colt has push button gears and can scoot away from the field in a blink of an eye.
Most of you all know, we’ve been on him in his last 3 races and he’s been very good to us at the windows and we’re not going to let the naysayers about his perfect trips distort our mind and this is a serious colt.
He’s worked like a machine out of the Sanat Anita Derby, take note of his last work on the 28th of April!
The jock is standing straight up, this is the best Kentucky Derby work we’ve seen of all the Kentucky Derby contenders!!
PRACTICAL MOVE WORK 28TH
Practical Move’s Santa Anita Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :22.90 (fourth) 1/2 mile — :46.70 (third) 3/4 mile — 1:11.35 (second) 1 mile — 1:35.73 (first)
1 1/8 mile — 1:48.69 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :22.90
second 1/4 mile — :23.80 third 1/4 mile — :24.65 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.38
***We want to point out his first half of the race, he ran it in 46.7 and still had the power to finish the last 3F in 37.34!
It’s not like he was loafing in splits of 24/25 and then finishing strong, he carried that speed to the wire and on the gallop out!!!
Practical Move’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 4-3-3 Practical Move’s Workouts
April 21 – 47.00 – 2/31 SA dirt fast April 28 – 59:60 – 2/33 SA dirt fast
PRACTICAL MOVE’S POST POSITON RESULTS – BIG POSITIVE
PRACTICAL MOVE – PRIME WIN CONTEDER
#11 – DISARM – 30/1 – We’ve been high on him; he was our selection in the Louisiana Derby and right back in the Lexington.
He’s just behind the eight ball and Steve has stated that loudly!
Steve, stated they had to stop on him as he had a huge growth spurt and Disarm didn’t know how to handle himself and was going to hurt himself, so they stopped on him.
Disarm is a true stayer and can handle the 10 furlongs, but is he fast enough at this time of the game and the biggest race of his career.
He’s trained well out of the Lexington, Steve had him back on the work tab 9 days after his Lexington working 5F in 1.00 the best of 18 that morning. He even gallops out better in his works than many of the
current Kentucky Derby runners.
He galloped out 6F in 1.13.2 and 7F in 1.26.6, serious gallop out!
He then came right back this week on the 1st of May and is continuing to look like a horse that is thriving at the right time, it’d really be justice for Steve to win his first Kentucky Derby, after Rich Strike, gutted them last year at the wire!!!
Disarm’s Louisiana Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :25.46 (sixth) 1/2 mile — :50.30 (sixth) 3/4 mile — 1:15.54 (sixth) 1 mile — 1:40.07 (third)
1 3/16 mile — 1:58.03 (second)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :25.46
second 1/4 mile — :24.84 third 1/4 mile — :25.24 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.53 final 3/16 mile — :17.96 final 7/16 mile– :42.49
Disarm’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 5-5-9
Disarm’s Workouts
April 24 – 1:00.00 – 1/18 CD dirt fast May 1 – 49.20 – 15/30 CD dirt fast
DISARM’S POST POSITION – BIG POSITIVE
DISARM – MUST USE EXOTIC RUNNER
#12 -JACE’S ROAD – 50/1 – He’s only running in the Kentucky Derby, because there are some big face celebrities that have bought into him and it’ll be all over national media!
We’re not wasting anytime on this runner!!
JACE’S ROAD – COMPLETE TOSS
#13 – SUN THUNDER – 50/1 – He’s better than this morning line, but he’s not fast enough to win this years’ running of the roses!
Kenny McPeek loves to run his horses; he’s always looking to catch lighting in a bottle for the ownership and at the windows.
Sun Thunder will be running with the hood for the first time, they’re looking for him to be a little more in the race than just dropping back and making that grinding one run to the wire.
He’s worked well with the hood added and has been very controlled in those works also. We just don’ see this race as a meltdown race like last year and that is exactly what he needs
SUN THUNDER – COMPLETE TOSS
#14 – ANGEL OF EMPIRE – 8/1 – His win in the Risen Star and the Arkansas Derby were on par with Practical Move for the best visual Kentucky Derby prep wins of this group!
One thing he has going for him, is the longer the better, as he’s strictly a true router and has displayed that with his back-to-back 1 1/8th wins!
He’s the only horse in the field with two wins going 1 1/8th and that is a huge tell for horses that want to truly route!
One glaring positive for Angel of Empire is how quick Flavian Prat committed to him after the Arkansas Derby.
That’s a huge sign as Prat stated to Cox, this boy has multiple gears when needed!
Angel of Empire has worked the best of Cox runners since arriving at Churchill Downs and he drew the best post position over Hit Show and Verifying!
Angel of Empire’s Arkansas Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :24.22 (seventh) 1/2 mile — :48.16 (seventh) 3/4 mile — 1:12.89 (sixth)
1 mile — 1:37.56 (first)
1 1/8 mile — 1:49.68 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.22
second 1/4 mile — :23.94 third 1/4 mile — :24.73 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.67
final 1/8 mile — :12.12 – BEYOND POWERFUL
final 3/8 mile — :36.79 – BEYOND POWERFUL, ALSO IN HAND!
Angel of Empire’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 2-2-9 Angel of Empire’s Workouts
April 15 – 48:20 – 5/22 CD dirt fast April 21 – 1:13.40 – 1/2 CD dirt fast
April 29 – 1.01:40 – 23/54 CD dirt fast
ANGEL OF EMPIRE’S POST POSITION RESULTS – AVERAGE
ANGEL OF EMPIRE – PRIME WIN CONTENDER
#15 – FORTE – 3/1 – The 2-year-old champion that everyone is dismissing, some are dismissing from his ML, some are against him, as he hasn’t improved off his 2-year-old speed #’s!
Many don’t like him as they dislike his daddy Violence, he wasn’t a stayer at 1 1/8th or longer.
What’s impressive from our eye, is he knows where the wire’s at, he’s won going, 5F, 7F, 1 1/16th & 1 1/18th!
That shows he’s just a pure racehorse and loves to win and battle to the wire, similar to his stablemate Tapit Trice!
He’s taken unnecessary criticism out of the Florida Derby!
He’s one of the few that’s ever won from that post position and he looked a little off going to the gate that afternoon as he didn’t seem to have his mind on racing and it showed when the gates popped!
Everyone and their Mama, has made so many excuses for Mage in that race, if Mage was better than Forte, he should’ve won that afternoon, but as we stated earlier, he ran by him, like he as tied to the rail.
Forte had no business winning the Florida Derby, but as good horses do, they overcome obstacles and cross the finish line first.
We were watching the race that afternoon and we couldn’t believe our eyes he got up and won with his ears pricked and was extending his
lead past the wire!
We screamed this horse is a BEAST!!
Todd Pletcher and crew, mapped out a plan for Forte after his win in the Breeders’ Cup and this colt hasn’t missed an oat or work from last
November.
He’s worked extremely well down South and it showed in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby as well.
You have to realize; this will be his 3rd start off the layoff and he truly needed that hard effort in the Florida Derby to have him fit.
He’s worked solid at Churchill Downs, there’s no need to work him hard and fast, after that taxing Florida Derby race!
He’s been galloping very powerful; he gallops better than he’s worked at Churchill Downs and we feel that’s by design.
Forte’s Florida Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :24.72 (ninth) 1/2 mile — :47.76 (ninth) 3/4 mile — 1:11.53 (sixth) 1 mile — 1:36.90 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile — 1:49.37 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.72
second 1/4 mile — :23.04 third 1/4 mile — :23.77 fourth 1/4 mile — :25.37
Forte’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 3-2-2 Forte’s Workouts
April 14 – 50.23 Breezing (16/25) PBD dirt fast April 21 – 1:02.00 Breezing 29/33 CD dirt fast April 29 – 49:80 Breezing 96/149 CD dirt fast
FORTE’S POST POSITION RESULT – GOOD
FORTE – WIN CONTENDER
#16 – RAISE CAIN – 50/1 – It’s never a good sign for any Kentucky Derby contender, when their committed jockey, jumps ship to another runner!
Raise Cain claim to fame and entry come when he galloped in the Gotham to the winner’s circle by 7.5 lengths!
The race was a complete pace meltdown in the slop and Raise Cain, was ready to fire that afternoon and just zoomed that group to the winner’s circle.
Prior to his win in the Gotham, he was a stalker and didn’t show any signs of being a stone closer! Many are wondering, where did that effort come from!
We cannot see Raise Cain winning this year’s Kentucky Derby, much less than grabbing a piece!
Raise Cain’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 4-4-12 RAISE CAIN’S POST POSITION RESULTS – Average
RAISE CAIN – TOSS
#17 – DERMA SOTOGAKE (JPN) – 10/1 – The “FASTEST” horse in the
race per all the speed figure makers and speed guru’s!!
Many have stated our three-year-old crop is slow and he’s superior to them.
The Japanese are winning world wide and that also gets the masses blood flowing and most people are bandwagon fans, when it comes to a rooting interest.
Just last week the masses were screaming and pounding that Will Levis was going #1, that he would be selected before 4.5 selections and on and on!
He didn’t even have enough class to stay around and hear his name called out the next day, when the 2nd round commenced.
Another one we heard over and over and took big advantage of it was, there will be only 1 running back selected in round 1 and that was Bijan.
We hit over 1.5 RB’s at +275 early on and it closed over -200! BINGO!
You can see were, we’re going, Derma this Derma that!
This colt has worked very unorthodox and has been very head strong in his gallops at Churchill Downs.
DERMA SOTOGAKE GALLOP 24TH
You can take that gallop either way, he’s going to run off and or be rank if they tighten the reins or he’s just about explode and dust this field.
One big negative on our end for Derma is a stat that we’ve been using since 1999 and it doesn’t come into play that often now, as most runners are only campaigned for 4-5 races before running in the
Kentucky Derby. Take a look!
Horses Record since ’99 that have run for 8 – 8.9 miles leading up to the Kentucky Derby are 45-1-2-2-4
Derma Sotogake fits this category as he’s raced over 8 miles coming into the Kentucky Derby and we’ll be beyond shocked if the son of Mind Your Biscuits and the grand-son of Posse winning the ROSES!!!
Derma Sotogake’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 1-6-6 – Fastest DERMA SOTOGAKE’S POST POSITION RESULTS – POOR
DERMA SOTOGAKE’S – TOSS
#18 – ROCKET CAN – 30/1 – He’s buzzing right now on the backside as he’s been working and galloping extremely well since Bill Mott and crew
have added the hood for this race.
The scuttlebutt on the backside is Billy Mott is being very coy when talking to other trainers about Rocket Can!
When you look at his past performances, you can see he likes the main track in Louisville and just might’ve despised the surface at Oaklawn.
Rocket Can works and gallops shows that he likes to strut his stuff in the mornings and afternoon here in Louisville.
He hasn’t embarrassed himself this year as he won his three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull and ran credible in the Fountain of Youth and Arkansas Derby.
Rocket Can’s Arkansas Derby Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :23.82 (sixth) 1/2 mile — :47.46 (fifth) 3/4 mile — 1:12.69 (fifth) 1 mile — 1:38.11 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile — 1:50.67 (fourth)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :23.82
second 1/4 mile — :23.64 third 1/4 mile — :25.23 fourth 1/4 mile — :25.42
final 1/8 mile — :12.56 – AVERAGE FOR EARLY FRACTIONS
final 3/8 mile — :37.98 – SO, SO!
Rocket Can’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 4-4-8 Rocket Can’s Workouts
April 13 – 46:60 Breezing 1/34 CD dirt fast
April 23 – 1:01.00 Breezing 11/41 CD dirt fast April 30 – 59.80 Breezing 4/35 CD dirt fast
ROCKET CAN’S POST POSITON RESULTS – POOR
ROCKET CAN – TOSS
#19 – LORD MILES – 30-1 – Many of you know, he holds a little special place in our mind and heart for getting up in the Wood Memorial for us at 59/1!
We’re still blown away; he creeped up that high off his 30/1 ML!!
We feel he’ll most probably bounce some off that big taxing effort at Aqueduct as all three battled to the wire, exchanging body blows and whip lashings!
The Bun Man is a sore eye right now, as two of his current runners have died at Churchill Downs, since opening day! You don’t want a black
cloud over you coming into the biggest race of Lord Miles career.
Lord Mile’s Wood Memorial Fractions
Fractions
1/4 mile — :25.18 (third) 1/2 mile — :49.30 (fourth) 3/4 mile — 1:13.28 (third) 1 mile — 1:38.18 (third)
1 1/8 mile — 1:51.17 (first)
Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :25.18
second 1/4 mile — :24.12 third 1/4 mile — :23.98 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.90
final 1/8 mile — :12.99 – STAGGERING TO THE WIRE
final 3/8 mile — :37.89 – SO, SO!
Lord Mile’s last 3 Thor #’s – First # most current – 4-10-17 Lord Mile’s Workouts
April 21 – 47.05 Breezing 2/33 GP dirt fast April 28 – 1.02:41 Breezing 12/13 GP dirt fast
LORD MILE’S POST POSITION RESULTS – POOR
LORD MILE’S – TOSS
#20 – CONTINUAR (JPN) – 50/1 – Some speed figure makers like this colt!
He’s looked putrid galloping and working over the Churchill Downs main track.
He does nothing for us at all and this would be a bigger upset than Rich Strike!CONTINUAR (JPN) – TOSS
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